National Championship Odds: Iowa Among Biggest Week 4 Losers

Sep 24, 2018 4:22 PM EDT
  • Six ranked teams lost on Saturday, which has shifted college football title odds significantly.
  • Alabama was the only big winner from this weekend.
  • Among the losers were Mississippi State, Iowa, Oklahoma State, and Oregon.

When six ranked teams lose on the same weekend, you tend to see a shift in college football title odds — shocker, I know. Unfortunately, in most cases that shift was in the wrong direction this week.

Other than Alabama, no team inside of 300-1 saw its odds at Westgate improve this week. Here’s where each team now stands:

Table defaults to preseason odds. Click on a date to sort.

Biggest Winners

Alabama: -125 to -225 (55.56% to 69.23% implied probability)

Week 4 vs. Texas A&M: Won 45-23

That heading would read more accurately as a singular “winner.” As the only team to make a sizable jump this week, Bama now has a ridiculous 69.23% implied probability of winning the title again this year.

Biggest Losers

Mississippi State: +4000 to +10000 (2.44% to 0.99% implied probability)

Week 4 @ Kentucky: Lost 28-7

Through the first three weeks of the season, Mississippi State was emerging as one of the biggest potential threats to Alabama in the SEC West. That’s not to say that the Bulldogs are no longer a challenge on Bama’s schedule, but their title chances took a big hit from Saturday’s loss.

Iowa: +5000 to +30000 (1.96% to 0.33% implied probability)

Week 4 vs. Wisconsin: Lost 28-17

Iowa’s title chances took a big leap from Wisconsin’s loss to BYU last week. After the Hawkeyes’ loss on Saturday, however, that leap was more than wiped out.

They’ve now got a microscopic chance of winning the title, and still have a date in Happy Valley remaining on their schedule.

Oklahoma State: +8000 to +30000 (1.23% to 0.33% implied probability)

Week 4 vs. Texas Tech: Lost 41-17

Following an impressive Week 3 win over Boise State, Oklahoma State was blown out at home as a 14.5-point favorite on Saturday. With Texas, Oklahoma, West Virginia and TCU still left on their schedule, the Cowboys have a nearly impossible hill to climb to make the playoff.

Oregon: +10000 to +50000 (0.99% to 0.20% implied probability)

Week 4 vs. Stanford: Lost 38-31 (OT)

This was a tough game for any variety of Oregon bettors. Not only did the Ducks — who were +2 in the game — blow a 24-7 halftime lead to lose by a touchdown in overtime, they also crushed any futures holders’ hopes of an Oregon national championship.

Credit:

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Iowa head coach Kirk Ferentz

Follow Danny Donahue on Twitter
@dannyjdonahue

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