The North Texas Mean Green take on the San Diego State Aztecs in the 2025 New Mexico Bowl in Albuquerque, N.M., on Saturday, Dec. 27. Kickoff is set for 5:45 p.m. ET on ESPN.
North Texas is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -230. San Diego State, meanwhile, enters as a +6.5 underdog and is +195 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52.5 total points.
Here’s my North Texas vs. San Diego State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 27.
North Texas vs San Diego State Prediction
- North Texas vs. San Diego State Pick: San Diego State Team Total Under 24.5
My San Diego State vs. North Texas best bet is on the Aztecs to go under their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
North Texas vs San Diego State Odds
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 52.5 -112o / -108u | -230 |
| San Diego St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 52.5 -112o / -108u | +195 |
- North Texas vs San Diego State Spread: North Texas -6.5, San Diego State +6.5
- North Texas vs San Diego State Over/Under: 52.5 Points
- North Texas vs San Diego State Moneyline: North Texas -230, San Diego State +195
North Texas vs San Diego State New Mexico Bowl Preview
North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview: Historic Run Continues
North Texas capped off a historic season with an American Championship appearance and a berth in the New Mexico Bowl against San Diego State. For the first time in program history, UNT won 10 games.
As is often the case in modern college football, that success led to staff turnover and roster uncertainty.
Head coach Eric Morris departed for Oklahoma State, offensive coordinator Jordan Davis was hired by East Carolina, and defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity followed Morris to Stillwater.
Star quarterback Drew Mestemaker, the nation’s leading passer, is expected to transfer, and standout freshman running back Caleb Hawkins — who led the country with 23 touchdowns — is likely to draw significant Power 4 interest.
That said, all signs point toward continuity for this bowl game. Mestemaker is expected to play, and both coordinators will coach in this matchup.
Hawkins exited the conference title game with an injury and is a potential transfer opt-out, so his status bears monitoring.
Despite Morris’ departure, North Texas should still be priced similarly to its regular-season form. Against 9-3 San Diego State, UNT has garnered notable market respect.
While the offense drew most of the attention, the Mean Green defense played a major role in the team’s success. It finished 43rd in Quality Drive Rate allowed (39.4%), 31st in Passing Success Rate allowed (36.1%) and 10th nationally in takeaways (24).
That unit remains largely intact, with the exception of linebacker Shane Whitter (41 tackles, 24 run stops), who hasn’t suited up since Week 10, and defensive lineman Saadiq Clements, who battled injuries down the stretch and will transfer.
The defense improved significantly after the first seven weeks of the season, holding Navy and UTSA to 17 points and limiting several late-season opponents to fewer than 20 points before garbage time.
As the offense pulled away in games, late scores occasionally masked what was otherwise a stout defensive performance.
North Texas now has a chance to become the lone Group of Five program to win 12 games this season and join a very small group of teams nationwide to reach that mark.
San Diego State Aztecs Betting Preview: Run-Only Reality
Coming off a 3-9 season, expectations for Sean Lewis and San Diego State were middling at best. The Aztecs were picked to finish sixth by Phil Steele, eighth in the preseason media poll and 11th by Lindy’s.
Instead, San Diego State finished 9-3, in a multi-way tie for first in the Mountain West, and atop the conference in total defense. Its banner wins on the season were a 17-7 stifling of eventual champion Boise State and a 34-0 walloping of Cal.
By all accounts, it was a successful year.
Defensive coordinator Rob Aurich was poached by Nebraska, and for good reason. He led SDSU to a third-place national finish in Points Per Drive allowed (1.02), sixth in Success Rate allowed (35.5%) and fourth in Quality Drive Rate allowed (26%).
Three Aztecs earned first-team All-Mountain West honors: defensive end Trey White, linebacker Owen Chambliss and cornerback Chris Johnson.
Unfortunately for SDSU, Aurich won’t stick around for the bowl game. A few defenders — Chambliss and White, specifically — are rumored to follow him to Nebraska, though there have been no concrete updates on whether either will play here.
Quarterback Jayden Denegal suffered an injury that required surgery and is out for this game. Leading receiver Jordan Napier (623 yards) and third-leading receiver Jacob Bostick (157 yards, team-high three touchdowns) are also done for the season due to injuries.
The reins are handed to former Central Michigan quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. for this game.
This offense was already run-based. Running back Lucky Sutton led the Mountain West with 1,237 rushing yards and will return in 2026, while the Aztecs finished 47th nationally in Rushing Success Rate (47.2%).
The passing offense, however, was dreadful, finishing in the bottom 25 nationally in both Success Rate (34.7%) and EPA Per Pass.
That lack of a passing threat showed up most clearly on late downs, where SDSU posted the second-worst Success Rate in the country (31.1%).
That inability to throw the ball is further magnified with Emanuel under center. He has completed just 53.3% of his 60 career pass attempts despite appearing in 32 games.
North Texas vs San Diego State Pick, Betting Analysis
North Texas opened as a -6 favorite but slid as low as -3.5 after news broke of the coaching staff departures, along with Mestemaker’s rumored transfer. Once it became clear Mestemaker was going to play, UNT took steady action and climbed back up to -5.5.
There’s a chance of precipitation during this game in Albuquerque. It’s not expected to be significant, but it’s worth monitoring the forecast in case conditions change.
If you’ve followed Central Michigan football in recent years, you know exactly what San Diego State is getting with its reserve quarterback.
Emanuel has just two career games with more than four pass attempts, both coming in Weeks 1 and 2 of the 2023 season. He threw at least one interception in each and completed fewer than 40% of his passes against New Hampshire in that Week 2 start. He was subsequently benched in favor of Joe Labas.
Emanuel is also dealing with a leg injury that kept him out of the season finale against New Mexico.
Since Oct. 11, SDSU has topped 24 points just once, a Week 13 game against San Jose State. Even then, the Aztecs scored only 25 points and produced just one scoring drive longer than 50 yards against a defense that finished 102nd nationally in Points Per Drive allowed.
“Flash Fast” never really arrived in San Diego under Sean Lewis. The Aztecs rank 119th nationally in seconds per play (28.6), and their 60 plays per game is a bottom-10 mark in the FBS.
If SDSU falls behind, it will need explosive runs to stay competitive without a fast tempo or a credible passing threat.
North Texas has allowed some long runs this season, but there’s little in this matchup to keep defenders honest. Expect UNT to play downhill and force the ball into Emanuel’s hands.
San Diego State’s team total in this game implies its highest scoring output in seven weeks, coming against its toughest opponent to date and without its starting quarterback.
Pick: San Diego State Team Total Under 24.5
North Texas vs San Diego State Betting Trends
