The Miami (Ohio) RedHawks take on the Fresno State Bulldogs in the 2025 Arizona Bowl in Tucson on Saturday, Dec. 27. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. ET on The CW.
Fresno State is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -220. Miami (Ohio), meanwhile, enters as a +6 underdog and is +180 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 41.5 total points.
Here’s my Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 27.
Miami (Ohio) vs Fresno State Prediction
- Miami (Ohio) vs. Fresno State Pick: Under 41 or Better
My Fresno State vs. Miami (Ohio) best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Miami (Ohio) vs Fresno State Odds
| Miami (Ohio) Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -115 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +180 |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -105 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -220 |
- Miami (Ohio) vs Fresno State point spread: Fresno State -6 (-110 ), Miami (Ohio) +6 (-110)
- Miami (Ohio) vs Fresno State over/under: 41.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Miami (Ohio) vs Fresno State moneyline: Miami (Ohio) +180, Fresno State -220
Miami (Ohio) vs Fresno State College Football Betting Preview
Miami (Ohio) RedHawks Betting Preview: Clock-Killing Football
Let’s start with Miami’s offense, which has been one of the nation's least explosive.
The RedHawks rank 88th in EPA per Pass and 107th in EPA per Rush, generating just 41.1% of Available Yards. That’s well below average, and it matches what you see on the field: they grind out drives, play at a slow pace, and punt frequently.
Miami ranks 117th nationally in 3rd-and-4th-down success rate and often faces long conversion attempts.
Fresno, on the other hand, ranks among the top 60 at stopping conversions.
So, unless Fresno gives Miami short fields, it’s unlikely the RedHawks will put together many long drives.
Miami will also have Henry Hesson under center.
Fresno already has trouble staying on schedule, and now it’s up against a Miami defense that is not only good but also healthy for this game. The RedHawks rank in the top 50 nationally for EPA per Pass allowed, top 55 for EPA per Rush allowed, and 14th in Early Downs EPA allowed.
This means Miami often wins on first and second down.
If Fresno struggled to stay on track with its full roster, there’s no reason to think it will suddenly improve now.
Another key factor is how both teams perform on third down, which really hurts the chances of putting together long scoring drives.
Miami’s defense allows just a 48.5% third-down conversion rate, while Fresno’s offense ranks 126th nationally in third-down success rate.
Fresno State Bulldogs Betting Preview: Built for Stops
Fresno’s defense tells a similar story.
The Bulldogs’ main strength is making opponents inefficient.
They rank 22nd in EPA per Pass allowed, 39th in EPA per Rush allowed, and give up just 34.3% of Available Yards, which is among the best marks in the country.
That’s precisely the kind of defense that can shut down a conservative offense like Miami’s.
Meanwhile, Fresno’s offense is one of the most unreliable units heading into bowl season.
The Bulldogs are dealing with several injuries and have lost key players to the transfer portal, including skill-position players and offensive linemen.
Even when healthy, the numbers were rough: 121st nationally in EPA per Pass, 117th in EPA per Rush, and 108th in average third-down distance.
With so many backups expected to play, this is a tricky situation.
Miami (Ohio) vs Fresno State Pick, Betting Analysis
This has an ugly bowl game written all over it, but that’s why this is the best time of year.
When you look at both teams’ stats and factor in Fresno’s losses to the transfer portal and other personnel changes, it’s tough to see how these teams eclipse the total.
Both offenses are really struggling, while both defenses are good at limiting available yards.
At the same time, both lack explosiveness, and neither has shown the ability to score quick touchdowns.
This sets up a game in which nearly every possession could end in a punt — either after a few plays or after a longer but still unproductive drive.
With Fresno missing key offensive players and Miami playing a slow, run-heavy style, this game looks destined to be decided by field position and low scores, likely in the high teens or low 20s.
Pick: Under 41 or Better
Miami (Ohio) vs Fresno State Betting Trends
