Stuckey & Wilson: 2 College Football Moneyline Underdogs to Bet in Week 11
Ronald Cortes, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Ed Orgeron
- Don't forget to sprinkle some moneyline underdogs into your college footballs picks for Week 11.
- Our college football experts give their two favorite moneyline underdog bets for Saturday.
As we do each week on The Action Network Colleges Podcast, Collin Wilson and I pick our two favorite moneyline underdogs on Saturday’s college football slate.
We had another split last week, which we’ve now seen in nine of the first 10 weeks. For Week 11, we’re both going with two afternoon pups – both on the road. If you’re feeling lucky, a moneyline parlay of both pays a little under 5-1.
- 2018: 16-28 +3.95 units
- 2019: 9-11 +3.35 units
Wilson: Western Kentucky +100
- Spread: Arkansas -1
- Over/Under: 53
- Location: Fayetteville, Ark.
- Time: Noon ET
- TV: SECN
On the surface, this may look like an SEC team playing a non-conference opponent in a sandwich spot. However, I do not expect the Hogs to overlook this 11 a.m. kick at Razorback Stadium. Head coach Chad Morris is desperate to get a win any way possible at this point.
In Morris’ first season, the Razorbacks had two victories over Tulsa and Eastern Illinois. The count for 2019 is at two wins over Portland State and Colorado State. Amazingly, Morris has yet to win a Power 5 game in his five years as an FBS head coach.
Western Kentucky comes to town with two features that should have gamblers looking at the under. Former Razorback quarterback Ty Storey now starts under center at Western Kentucky, so defensive coordinator John Chavis should have plenty of ideas of how to attack the Hilltopper offense. Don’t expect a ton of big plays out of a WKU offense that ranks outside the top 100 in rush and pass explosiveness.
On the other side of the ball, Western Kentucky is no slouch on defense. The Hilltoppers rank 24th in total defense, 10th in opponent third down conversions and 18th in opponent red zone scoring percentage.
Arkansas notably moved quarterbacks John Stephen Jones and KJ Jefferson to the top of the depth chart this week. Jones, a redshirt freshman and grandson of Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, has just 24 career attempts for less than 100 yards.
Jones will try to navigate a Western Kentucky that ranks 13th in opponent passing success rate and 26th in opponent pass completion rate. If he isn’t productive early, the Razorback fanbase may grow hungrier for more KJ Jefferson after he showed flashes late against Mississippi State in his debut last week.
The 12th-ranked dual threat quarterback has high expectations, but he could struggle against a stout Western Kentucky front seven that ranks seventh in opponent rush explosiveness.
In what should be a low scoring contest, the difference may come down to red zone efficiency. And if that’s the case, advantage Hilltoppers, who rank in the top 30 nationally in opponent red zone scoring. That could spell doom for an incompetent Arkansas red zone offense that ranks 120th in red zone scoring percentage.
Don’t be shocked if the Conference USA team takes out the SEC team on its home turf.
Pick: Western Kentucky +100 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Stuckey: LSU +190
- Spread: Alabama -6.5
- Over/Under: 63
- Location: Tuscaloosa, Ala.
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
This is a very difficult game to handicap. Not only has Alabama yet to play anybody of note so far this season, we have uncertainty surrounding the health of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. That increased variance has me intrigued on the moneyline underdog price in a matchup of two elite teams.
Coming into the year, I said Alabama would take a step back. (And by step back I mean only a few spots from a top 2 team and still safely within the top 10.) I just thought the defensive losses in the front seven and the assistant coaching carousel in recent years would catch up in 2019.
Well, this would be the game we’d find out if that’s true or not as the Tide have simply out-talented everyone on their schedule to date.
And you know I also have to mention special teams where LSU should hold a major edge. Per SP+, the Tigers have the fourth best unit in all of college football while Alabama ranks 78th. That could end up making all of the difference in a tight game.
With a special teams edge and the unknowns surrounding Alabama, give me the Tigers to pull off the upset to end Alabama’s eight-game winning streak in this rivalry and 32-game home winning streak. Geaux Tigers!
Pick: LSU +190 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]