Tulsa at USF Betting Odds & Pick: Stiff Winds Follow Golden Hurricane Back To Florida (Friday, Oct. 23)
Joe Robbins/Getty Images. Pictured: Tulsa Golden Hurricane football players.
- After upsetting UCF on the road in Orlando in Week 6, and following a bye last week, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane returns to the state of Florida to take on USF in Week 8.
- And, just as the Golden Hurricane hopes to play spoiler to the Bulls in Tampa, so too does imminent and significant wind threaten the game total.
- Collin Wilson breaks down Friday night's college football matchup, including updated odds and his pick for the game.
Tulsa at USF Odds
|Tulsa Odds||-11 [BET NOW]|
|USF Odds||+11 [BET NOW]|
|Moneyline||-500/+325 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||50.5 [BET NOW]|
|Time||7:30 p.m. ET|
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
The Cincinnati cancellation due to COVID-19 hitting the Bearcats’ roster took some wind out of Tulsa’s sails. The game was set to be on ESPN2 during a weekend in which an Oklahoma State or Oklahoma game wasn’t to be played. The Golden Hurricane returns to the state of Florida three weeks after a victory against UCF in Orlando.
Powering Tulsa’s upset over the Knights is one of the best defenses in the Group of Five. Ranking third in the latest Havoc ratings, the Golden Hurricane defense has come through with near-perfect execution. Only one player on the entire roster has two missed tackles through two games.
Linebacker Zaven Collins has been a one-man wrecking crew with three sacks, three hurries and a top-10 tackles for loss rank in just two games.
— Joe Broback (@joebroback) October 7, 2020
However, the Tulsa offense can be considered pedestrian at best. A rank in the bottom 10 in Success Rate with a Finishing Drives rank of 63rd would make any gambler curious of the final score of the Central Florida game.
Quarterback Zach Smith connected on 34- and 48-yard touchdown passes. Recovering two fumbles, recording a touchdown and connecting on two field goals assisted in the team racking up 34 points.
Head coach Jeff Scott has a 1-4 record through the first portion of the Bulls’ schedule. Scott, who previously served as Clemson’s co-offensive coordinator, took just four losses since 2016 in his time as the Tigers’ offensive mind. South Florida is -4 in turnovers during FBS play, including five against Cincinnati.
The Bulls rank almost dead last in Havoc allowed, with seven offensive fumbles and 49 tackles for loss.
The turnovers have negated a top-20 rank in rush explosiveness and Power Success Rate. Those numbers can be attributed to Johnny Ford, who saw increased action against Temple with 206 all-purpose yards as a receiver, rusher and kickoff return specialist.
— 𝗦𝗼𝗙𝗹𝗼𝗕𝘂𝗹𝗹𝘀 (@SoFloBulls_) October 3, 2020
The defense has been just as helpless in the Havoc department, ranking 71st along with a Sack Rate of 55th. The only positive news is the limiting of opponents’ explosive passing, ranking sixth in the nation. South Florida has given up just 11 passing plays over 20 yards through five games.
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Betting Analysis & Pick
South Florida’s defensive strength is limiting the deep pass, an issue Central Florida had against Tulsa quarterback Zach Smith. If the Bulls can clamp down a Tulsa offense that has its limitations, there could be a shot for South Florida to compete.
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The Action Network matchup chart shows there should be more Johnny Ford on offense for the Bulls, breaking chunk yards on the ground. Quarterback Jordan McCloud must have a clean sheet in fumbles and interceptions, which is a tough ask against this Tulsa defense.
With both defenses setting the ceiling low on opposing offenses, there may be a lack of scoring. Our Pace Report projects a total of 43 points, well below the current market. Totals are calculated taking in Pace and Finishing Drives.
South Florida may run a quick pace, but an Offensive Finishing Drives rank of 75th is at the bottom of FBS teams. Conversely, the Tulsa defense allows just three points per trip past the 40-yard line.
There is no value in the side with an Action Network projection of Tulsa -9, but tough defenses and a stiff double-digit wind into an end zone call for a play on the total. Assuming no fumble recoveries occur in the end zone and no pick-sixes, this game has under the total written all over it.
Pick: Under 50.5 or better