Two weeks ago, I laid out an Indiana football investment strategy ahead of IU’s upset of Oregon in Eugene.
As “new money” in the sport, the public and sportsbooks were slow to react to the Hoosiers’ meteoric rise. Searching for a new team to address in the futures market, I assumed I’d be landing on another program just off the national radar. But to my surprise, the team still undervalued is a blue blood.
Let's take a look at my college football futures and NCAAF picks ahead of Week 9.
Georgia to Win SEC (+425)
The Bulldogs are third in the SEC pecking order, trailing Alabama (+185) and Texas A&M (+400). Alabama owns the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bulldogs by virtue of its 24-21 win over UGA in Athens.
But Georgia’s path to Atlanta for the SEC Championship is fairly simple.
Kirby Smart’s team needs to win out while getting a little help from Texas A&M. If A&M were to drop one conference game, the door would open for Georgia to squeeze past it.
Since UGA and A&M haven’t played, a tie for second in the SEC standings would trigger a number of tiebreakers. The fourth SEC tiebreaker would be the one to break the tie in this case. This tiebreaker tallies deadlocked teams’ quality of SEC wins as determined by their opponents' cumulative conference winning percentage.
UGA’s wins over Ole Miss and Tennessee would almost assuredly vault it over A&M in that tiebreaker situation, given the Aggies’ lighter conference schedule here in 2025.
Should they make it to Atlanta for a rematch with Alabama, it’s likely the game lands on a pick'em in the market, making a +425 ticket a valuable hedging tool for bettors.
If it is the Crimson Tide waiting for Georgia, Smart has another thing going in his favor: the do-over angle. Smart is 3-0 straight up as a head coach when faced with an in-season rematch.
Gunner Stockton to Win Heisman Trophy (+1800)
I’m still trying to figure out why the market isn’t higher on Stockton and, by extension, this Georgia offense.
Perhaps it’s Mike Bobo’s reputation as a mediocre play-caller. Or Kirby Smart’s desire to lean on his running game in previous seasons.
Seven games into 2025, two things are clear: This offense is elite, and it starts and ends with Gunner Stockton.
Against ranked opponents, Georgia is averaging 36 points per game with 457 yards of total offense. Stockton, in particular, has an otherworldly QBR of 91.8 in those contests.
In his ranked battles against Alabama, Ole Miss and Tennessee, Stockton has accounted for nine total touchdowns against just one turnover (lost fumble).
In the 90-year history of the Heisman Trophy, Georgia has produced just one finalist who played the quarterback position in Stetson Bennett.
Like Bennett, Stockton has quietly been pitching in rushing stats throughout the season. Bennett cashed in 10 rushing scores back in 2022, and Stockton is on pace to find paydirt 13 times if UGA makes it to Atlanta for the SEC Championship.
Between now and championship weekend, Stockton and the Dawgs have some serious stat-padding opportunities. Mississippi State and Charlotte should put up little resistance, and Florida’s once-fierce defense could be going through the motions now that Billy Napier got the axe this week.
That leaves nationally-televised tussles with Texas and Georgia Tech. In my estimation, the matchups with the Longhorns, Yellow Jackets and Crimson Tide, in a potential rematch, perfectly position Stockton to capture the nation’s imagination.
It’s rare to find a candidate on a top-five team with so much going for them statistically at any number north of 10-1 this time of year. It’s time to grab this future at 18-1 before it’s long gone.
