Welcome to Week 6 of the NCAAF season, as I have four college football picks and predictions for you to target for your noon slate betting card, including three underdogs.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 6, here's the full piece.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 18-14-2 (56.25%)
- Overall: 187-137-3 (57.7%)
Week 6 College Football Picks, Predictions for Noon Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Cincinnati -1 |
  | 12 p.m. | UAB +7.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Purdue +9.5 |
  | 12 p.m. | Ball State +16.5 |
Cincinnati -1 vs. Iowa State
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN 2
Iowa State had an impressive victory last week at home against Arizona, but I think the Clones are in trouble this week against a scorching-hot Cincinnati offense that ranks in the top 20 nationally, no matter how you slice it.
Plus, if you look at the entire body of work for Iowa State, all of its wins have aged poorly after the fact, with Kansas State, South Dakota, Arkansas State and Iowa all struggling at times.
Its lone road game came against a very bad Arkansas State squad in what played out close to a coin-flip game outside of a few brutal calls that went against the Red Wolves.
Additionally, Iowa State recently lost two All-Big 12 caliber cornerbacks in Jontez Williams and Jeremiah Cooper to season-ending knee injuries.
That's extremely problematic this week against Brendan Sorsby and an ascending wide receiver room, especially considering the Clones generate absolutely no pressure and have been extremely reliant on stout coverage on the back end.
In fact, among all power conference teams, only North Carolina and UCLA have generated a lower pressure rate than Iowa State.
While Domonique Orange (who's dealing with a nagging injury) is a future pro in the interior, the Cyclones don't have the horses on the edge to exploit some of the deficiencies Cincy has at tackle to cause problems for Sorsby, who does really struggle under pressure.
It's also worth noting that Cincy runs a very similar defensive scheme to Iowa State under defensive coordinator Tyson Veidt, who spent seven seasons in Ames before taking the DC job under Scott Satterfield in 2024.
They will know exactly how to attack this defensive scheme, which can really confuse opponents who aren't properly prepared. Now, the same can be said for Iowa State, but the Bearcats have much more firepower in my opinion.
Speaking of future NFL players, Cincy should get Dontay Corleone back along its interior of the defensive line. That's an enormous boost for a Bearcat team that's relatively healthy elsewhere.
I do really like the linebacker corps, which is critical against Rocco Becht and company, who love to use their tight ends and throw over the middle of the field.
While the cornerback room for Cincy has been a bit underwhelming, I don't fear the outside receivers for Iowa State too much after the departure of two 1,000-yard receivers to the NFL.
There's also a chance we see some late-down regression work in Cincy's favor. Despite ranking third nationally in early downs EPA, the Bearcats have converted just 38% of their third-down attempts.
Meanwhile, Iowa State has converted at a 50% clip with a much worse early-down offense. They are also a perfect 5-of-5 on fourth downs, while opponents have failed on 8-of-12.
Lastly, Iowa State could have special teams issues with recent injuries to its kicker and kickoff specialist. It didn't cause any harm last week in a blowout but could rear its ugly head in what should be a competitive affair.
That could ultimately swing this Cincy's way, as I do hate trusting Satterfield in close games.
Notable Nugget
Matt Campbell has enjoyed plenty of success as an underdog, especially in league play, where he has gone 27-15 ATS (64.3%). However, he's just 3-7 against the closing number as a short pup of 3 or less.
Pick: Cincinnati -1 (Play to -2.5)
UAB +7.5 vs. Army
12 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
This is a very strong situational spot for the Blazers, who get a bye week prior to facing Army. That extra time off is key to not only prepare for a unique offense, but also to get healthier on defense.
That group is also led by defensive coordinator Steve Russ, who played at Air Force and spent six years coaching the defense in Colorado Springs. He certainly has as much familiarity with the triple option as anybody.
It also doesn't hurt that UAB already faced a service academy earlier this season when it played a fairly competitive game against Navy that honestly could've gone either way without some critical UAB turnovers.
Now, the defense will likely still struggle for long stretches of this game.
It's still not an overly talented group, but it likely just needs to steal a possession or two against an Army offense that's significantly worse than last year after the loss of star quarterback Bryson Daily and a drop-off up front along the offensive line, which won the Joe Moore Award in 2024.
The tackle play just isn't at the same caliber as 2024, which is the most underrated position by far for a triple-option offense.
Even if the UAB defense isn't getting many stops, its electric offense can keep up with the Black Knights even without wide receiver Corri Milliner.
Jalen Kitna and company can move the ball against almost any defense, especially this Army stop unit that lost nine of its top 15 defenders in terms of snap counts from last season.
That includes nose tackle Kody Harris-Miller, who hasn't played since Week 1 due to injury. Kitna should have all day in the pocket against a nonexistent Army pass rush that lost 18 of its 25.5 sacks (71%) from 2024.
That spells trouble for the Army pass defense that ranks 127th in Pass Success Rate allowed against a UAB offense that ranks in the top 20.
Lastly, UAB should have a special teams edge in this particular matchup, where the Blazers will have the best unit on the field with their offense.
Notable Nugget
As you might have guessed, Army has historically fared poorly when laying points. Since 2005, the Black Knights have gone just 30-44-1 (40.5%) in that role, including just 20-35-1 (36.4%) as a favorite of 10 or less.
Pick: UAB +7.5 (Play to +7)
Purdue +9.5 vs. Illinois
12 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
This is the most obvious situational spot on the board with the Illini finding themselves in a potential flat spot following two extremely emotional games against ranked opponents in Indiana and USC.
Oh, and did I mention this will be their sixth straight game without a break, and they have Ohio State coming to Champaign next Saturday?
Meanwhile, Purdue will come in as the much fresher team following its bye week, which should prove even more valuable for a team with an entirely new roster and coaching staff. Those two weeks should do wonders from a preparation perspective.
For what it's worth, Illinois found itself in a similar spot last season against Purdue in a game sandwiched between four ranked matchups.
The Illini had to survive a two-point conversion attempt in a 50-49 overtime win against a completely incompetent Boilermakers bunch that finished with one win in 2024. And Illinois played that game at home following a bye week.
This Purdue team is obviously significantly improved under head coach Barry Odom, who can thank quarterback Ryan Browne for playing at an extremely high level over the first month of the season.
The Boilermakers should be able to move the ball against an Illinois defense that still has some holes, especially without the services of star cornerback Xavier Scott.
The Illini have been quite fortunate since the start of last season, so maybe we see some of that overdue regression. So far this season, they have gone 5-of-5 on fourth downs with a +5 turnover margin, while Purdue sits at -5.
It's also worth noting that both teams have played fairly difficult schedules and are only separated by 0.1 net yards per play, with the Boilermakers possessing a higher quality drive rate.
Yes, Illinois did look great last week, but it also caught USC in a nightmare travel spot with an 11 a.m. local kick following the latest start time the previous Saturday.
Don't forget this team got completely pantsed the week prior against an Indiana team that easily could have lost at Iowa last week.
I expect this Battle for the Cannon (where the underdog has gone 12-6 ATS since 2005) to remain competitive throughout, so I'll happily take the points in a fantastic spot.
Notable Nugget
Road conference favorites of more than a touchdown on normal rest following an upset win over a ranked opponent have gone 72-88-3 (45%) ATS over the past 20 seasons.
On an unrelated note, the Illini are the least profitable favorite of 10 or fewer in college football over the past 20 seasons at 16-37-1 ATS (30.2%). That's completely meaningless to this game but just a shockingly bad split. Former head coach Ron Zook was special.
Pick: Purdue +9.5 (Play to +8.5)
Ball State +16.5 vs. Ohio
12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
This is another spot I had circled to back a brand new staff with major roster turnover coming off a bye week.
I expect a fully focused effort from the Cardinals (who have been a bit better than I expected to date) in their conference home opener following an extremely difficult nonconference schedule that included a trio of road games against Auburn, UConn and Purdue.
We didn't get to the window fading Ohio last week, but Bowling Green deserved a better outcome.
The Falcons amassed nearly 300 yards of offense in the first half but found themselves behind the 8-ball due to a tipped pick-six and another red-zone interception.
Then, in the second half, with the game still very much in doubt, quarterback Drew Pyne left with an injury.
Not only was he never 100% following that moment, but he left the field for a drive when his backup lost a fumble, leading to a short-field touchdown, which was the final nail in the coffin.
Ball State runs an option-esque offense with quarterback Kiael Kelly, who converted back to the position after spending time at wide receiver and defensive back last season.
It should have success against a very poor Ohio run defense that's missing a couple of key pieces along its front seven. Ohio has also been extremely fortunate in terms of Finishing Drives and late-down variance swinging its way.
Despite ranking outside the top 100 in Success Rate allowed, the Bobcats rank in the top 10 in that department on late downs. That's simply not sustainable.
On the other side of the ball, Ohio quarterback Parker Navarro will make plenty of plays with his legs to break off big runs and make off-script throws downfield with stud slot wide receiver Chase Hendricks being the primary recipient.
However, the rest of the wide receiver room (which already lost a starter to injury) isn't fully capable of exploiting a weak Ball State secondary. The Cardinals can really focus on taking away Hendricks (much like BG did), which can neuter this Bobcats attack.
Additionally, the strength of this Ball State defense lies up front along a defensive line that should find success generating pressure, which has historically forced Navarro into many mistakes.
Ultimately, possessions in this game may also come at a premium in a battle of two slow-paced, run-heavy teams. That makes covering this large number a much more arduous task for the Bobcats, who also have major issues on special teams.
Notable Nugget
Over the past two regular seasons, Ohio has been the most profitable team to back against FBS competition with an impressive 12-3 ATS record (75%), including nine straight covers against non-FCS squads.
Pick: Ball State +16.5 (Play to +14.5)
