Welcome to the College Football Playoff semifinals.
Four teams will take the field in the Fiesta Bowl and the Peach Bowl with a spot in the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship on the line.
It all starts Thursday night when the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes and No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels meet in Phoenix, Arizona, for the Fiesta Bowl semifinal.
Then, it rolls on Friday night, as the No. 5 Oregon Ducks take on the top-ranked Indiana Hoosiers in a rematch from regular-season Big Ten play in the Peach Bowl.
I broke down both CFP semifinal games and came through with multiple picks for each.
With that said, let's take a look at my College Football Playoff picks and NCAAF predictions for the CFP semifinal games on Thursday, Jan. 8, and Friday, Jan. 9.
College Football Picks, Predictions for CFP Semifinals
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from this week's slate of College Football Playoff games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | Thursday, 7:30 p.m. | |
  | Friday, 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Ole Miss vs Miami Pick
Two unlikely participants will meet in the Fiesta Bowl for a berth in the 2026 National Championship game.
Ole Miss was the unlikely winner in the Sugar Bowl, besting SEC peer Georgia as a near-touchdown underdog. The Rebels' offensive assault on the Bulldogs' secondary was enough to give Pete Golding his second win in as many games as head coach.
Miami also scored an upset as an underdog of more than a touchdown against Ohio State. The Hurricanes defense was relentless, with an early pick-six setting the tone for an ACC team to advance to the semifinals.
However, there's a lack of history between these two storied programs.
Ole Miss took two victories from Miami before World War II, while the Hurricanes took the third and final game of the series in 1951. The Rebels are making history within the program, but the three national titles claimed over 60 years ago did not include votes from the AP Poll or Coaches Poll.
The roster has been motivated by the turnover at the head coaching position, as Lane Kiffin’s departure for LSU gave way to defensive coordinator Pete Golding’s promotion.
Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis Jr. will eventually reside in Baton Rouge and will be dealing with a depleted assistant coaching staff heading into this national semifinal.
The Hurricanes, meanwhile, are looking for their sixth national title and first in 25 years. Head coach Mario Cristobal looks to join an elite list of former coaches to lead "The U" back to championship status, including Jimmy Johnson and Dennis Erickson.
Until a victory in the first round at Texas A&M, Miami had stumbled in previous postseason games with nine losses in its 10 bowl games dating back to 2013.
This version of the Hurricanes defense is a throwback to the national champion version, boasting the best pass rush of all FBS teams.
Both teams will ascend to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona, a venue that has a long history of high-scoring New Year’s Six games.
The winner of the Fiesta Bowl has scored at least 29 points in every iteration of the game since 2011. The last semifinal to be played at this site came in 2022, when TCU and Michigan combined for 96 points.
There's a common opponent on the 2025 schedule, as Ole Miss beat Florida, 34-24, in Week 12, while Miami dominated the Gators, 26-7, in Week 4.
The Rebels generated nearly a full yard per play more than the Gators, posting five methodical drives. Miami had similar success on offense with five possessions featuring two or more first downs, but the defense held Florida to just 2.7 yards per play.
This semifinal preview will look at investments from all angles, including the spread and total. With a breakdown of run concepts and coverage looks from defenses, player props will be spread throughout the preview.
Game flow always dictates an opportunity to live bet, as each team's tendencies for the coin-flip and Middle 8 differentials can help in determining a live number.
Miami Hurricanes
Offensive coordinator Shannon Dawson kept the lead against Buckeyes thanks to success on money downs. Miami went 8-for-15 on third- and fourth-down attempts against Ohio State, consistently remaining in standard downs.
The Hurricanes generated at least two first downs in half of their offensive possessions, averaging just 6.1 yards to go on third downs.
Running back Mark Fletcher Jr. has been the driving force behind the offense, rushing for 262 yards in two playoff games.
Similar to the Ole Miss offense, Miami uses inside zone and man blocking assignments as its primary run concepts. The Rebels defense has been shredded by those specific concepts this season, averaging a Success Rate of 46% or worse against both.
Ole Miss Defensive Run Concept Report via SportSource Analytics.
There's no threat of explosives coming out of the Miami offense, ranking near dead last in Rush EPA and 75th with the pass.
With Ole Miss ranking top-20 in both Passing Success Rate allowed and contested catch rate, Fletcher becomes the most important piece of the Hurricanes offense in terms of creating methodical drives.
Quarterback Carson Beck will need another clean sheet to keep the offense moving after completing 33-of-46 passes with no interceptions through two playoff games.
Wideout Keelan Marion has been the primary target for Beck, as nearly half of the receiver's total targets have come over the past five games.
Miami will face an Ole Miss defense that uses a heavy amount of quarters coverage, as Golding allows opponents to take the middle of the field without giving up explosives.
Beck has been elite against quarters coverage this season, generating a 63% Success Rate with an explosive on one of every five attempts.
Ole Miss cornerback Antonio Kite is expected to draw the assignment against Marion after allowing just half of his man's eight targets to be caught against Texas A&M and Ohio State.
Ole Miss Rebels
The Rebels offense has been on fire since midseason, averaging at least 6.3 overall yards per play since Week 9.
Led by Ferris State transfer Trinidad Chambliss, Ole Miss owns top-25 rankings in Success Rate, Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
The balanced attack starts with the run behind running back Kewan Lacy, using gap assignment blocking with power and inside zone read concepts.
Lacy has been on a heater of late, rushing 10 touchdowns and 15 explosives over the past five games.
The A and B gaps on the right side of the offensive line have been the sweet spot for Lacy, who has averaged at least seven yards on 73 attempts there this season.
Inside zone will be the concept that gets the most traction against the Hurricanes' defensive front.
Miami has dominated teams using gap or man assignment blocking on the offensive line, but the efficiency cools against teams using inside zone with 11 personnel.
Ole Miss' success on the ground will be determined by Lacy running behind Arkansas transfer right guard Patrick Kutas. The senior ranks 15th of all guards in PFF run blocking and will line up directly against Justin Scott, David Blay Jr. and Ahmad Moten Sr.
None of those defensive interior players mentioned ranks within the top 100 of PFF run defenders, so Ole Miss will have success running inside zone to the right side of the offensive line.
The biggest handicap on this side of the ball is the pass rush's ability to get to Chambliss. Miami edges Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor rank in the top 35 of all defensive linemen in pass rush productivity, per PFF.
Blindside offensive tackle Diego Pounds ranks within the top 100 of all pass blockers, as the former North Carolina lineman has not allowed a sack all season.
In four games against Georgia, Florida and Oklahoma, the senior has allowed a total of five pressures.
Right tackle Jayden Williams will get the opportunity to keep Mesidor out of the backfield. The senior has allowed two sacks this season against 16 pressures.
The positive news for Ole Miss is the recent play of Williams, allowing just four pressures in the past six games. There's reason to believe the Rebels' tackles will have success in keeping Chambliss clean.
The multiple front of the Miami defense changes depending on the down and distance, but a nickel Cover 3 has been the primary tendency for coordinator Corey Hetherman. The Hurricanes play a low amount of man coverage and option to the zone look on more than 80% of opponent passing attempts.
Chambliss has blistered defenses using Cover 3, generating a 58% Success Rate while averaging an explosive on 25% of attempts.
Ole Miss has been particularly explosive between the hashmarks, as Chambliss has an average NFL rating of 121 with 13 touchdowns across the middle.
The transfer is beyond explosive in passes exceeding 20 yards, connecting for 24 big-time throws in just 50 attempts.
Both Texas A&M and Ohio State targeted the inside, specifically slot cornerback Keionte Scott and middle linebacker Mohamed Toure.
Ole Miss will look to Cayden Lee and Winston Watkins in the slot, while tight end Dae’Quan Wright will also be in the mix for targets against the middle of the Hurricanes defense.
One area the Rebels can expose is poor tackling from the Miami defense. The Canes rank 119th in PFF tackle grading and 93rd in broken tackles allowed, per Sports Info Solutions.
In two consecutive playoff games against Texas A&M and Ohio State, the Hurricanes missed 25 total tackles, leading to eight explosive passes from the Aggies and Buckeyes.
Ole Miss vs Miami Prediction
There are a number of factors indicating Miami has earned the title of favorite in the Fiesta Bowl.
The nickel defense is the best in the nation in terms of pass rush. Although Ole Miss survived an SEC schedule that included the defenses of Oklahoma and Georgia, neither of those units ranked in the top 10 in pass rush.
However, both Mesidor and Bain were taken out of the Cotton Bowl because of the tempo from Ohio State. Ole Miss has one of the faster offenses in the nation at 23.8 seconds per play, so tempo may be used to gas Miami's Havoc-minded defense.
Rushing attempts from Lacy behind Kutas on the offensive line should keep Ole Miss in standard downs. Miami has struggled in tackling at the second level, suggesting that the Rebels should have short third downs and a few quality drives that lead to scoring attempts.
Chambliss should have success in the middle of the field, specifically targeting Wright, Lee and Watkins. The Hurricanes have not created small windows against opposing passing attacks, ranking 69th in creating a contested catch.
Wright is the player to target in the prop market after generating at least five targets in the Rebels' biggest games of the season against Oklahoma, Georgia and Florida.
The methodical nature of the Miami offense will come through Fletcher on inside zone carries. Ole Miss has struggled against the concepts the Hurricanes will use, as the Rebels sit outside the top 90 in Defensive Line Yards.
Ole Miss' tackle grading has been poor at 77th, per PFF, indicating Miami’s top-25 ranks in Quality Drives and Finishing Drives will put points on the board.
With a total projection above the key of 55, the expected tempo from the Ole Miss offense should create extra possessions for each team and a wager on the over.
Our Action Network projection calls for Miami to be favored by 2.5 points, in line with the current market. While no action is suggested on the full game, there are other wagers for consideration.
Ole Miss boasts one of the highest-scoring offenses in the first half, ranking ninth of all FBS teams with an average of 20.6 points. The Miami offense has been slow out of the game this season, averaging just 5.4 points through the first quarter.
With a depleted offensive staff due to Kiffin's departure to LSU, Weis and the Rebels may struggle to make adjustments in the second half after the scripted portion of the game.
The Rebels have been fantastic in "Middle 8" this season, ranking third nationally in that area.
Tight end Luke Hasz will be another option for Chambliss when attacking the middle of the Miami defense. Hasz was a standout player for Arkansas before transferring to Oxford and suffering an ankle injury that threatened the season.
The junior has a target in each of the Rebels' two playoff games and is a red-zone option. After scoring the first touchdown for Ole Miss against Georgia, a long-shot flier can come in the form of 35-1 for the first touchdown or an anytime touchdown at +550.
Fletcher will have success running inside zone and man concepts against Ole Miss' defensive front. The junior averages 5.4 yards per carry on the season with 36 carries through two playoff games.
The ceiling for Fletcher resides just shy of 100 rushing yards against the Rebels, giving value to a props market that falls just shy of 90 yards.
Ole Miss vs Miami Picks, Player Props
- Over 52
- Ole Miss 1H +1.5
- Mark Fletcher Jr. Over 86.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
- Dae'Quan Wright Over 25.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
- Luke Hasz Anytime TD (+550)
| |
Indiana vs Oregon Pick
Two powerhouses from the Big Ten will head into SEC territory for a rematch to determine who plays for the 2026 College Football Playoff National Championship.
Both Oregon and Indiana made their New Year’s Day quarterfinal games look easy.
The Ducks blanked Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, allowing the Red Raiders to enter the red zone just once. The Hoosiers, meanwhile, cruised on the West Coast in the Rose Bowl, slamming Alabama without allowing a single touchdown.
The teams are now set for a rematch after an epic Week 7 game that saw Indiana leave Eugene with a 10-point victory.
The Hoosiers executed on defense against the Ducks, intercepting quarterback Dante Moore twice while creating eight tackles for loss.
Oregon couldn't convert in the red zone, failing to score a touchdown in three trips. The opposite was true for Indiana, which scored on all five red-zone trips, with three of those scores being touchdowns.
Running back Roman Hemby led the offense in rushing yards while posting two touchdowns on the ground. The Oregon defense missed just seven tackles in the loss, while the offense converted just 3-of-14 attempts on third down.
Oregon has looked the part of a national title contender since the loss to Indiana. The Ducks grinded out road victories against Iowa and Washington in the regular season before scoring 51 points against James Madison in the first round of the playoff.
The biggest handicap entering this game is whether the Ducks can match Indiana's Havoc-minded defense while stopping a Hoosiers offense that never falls off schedule.
Oregon Ducks
Head coach Dan Lanning has done a masterful job with an offense that has been without key players during the second half of the season.
Wide receivers Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. returned to full health against Texas Tech, garnering a combined six targets.
Neither had much of an impact in the box score, but Oregon had been a shell of its formerly explosive offense without Moore in the slot.
Oregon has feasted on owning the line of scrimmage since the loss to Indiana.
Offensive coordinator Will Stein, who will take over as Kentucky's head coach following the season, runs a heavy amount of zone read with a mixture of power and pulling linemen.
Every run concept sits above the national average ranks, with inside zone and man blocking assignments generating at least a 63% Success Rate.
The biggest hurdle for the Ducks is an Indiana defense that hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown since it played Penn State in Week 11. Indiana leads the nation in defensive red-zone touchdown rate, allowing just six rushing scores the entire season.
The Hoosiers have been elite against all run concepts, specifically in posting a minimum 57% Success Rate against zone read. Indiana has nearly played a perfect season defensively, ranking as the top overall team in Havoc and Finishing Drives allowed.
Where Indiana can become vulnerable is against the pass, ranking 82nd in EPA allowed on passing downs.
Head coach Curt Cignetti plays one of the lowest rates of man coverage in the nation, opting for a heavy amount of Cover 3 mixed with Cover 2.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore has been excellent against Cover 3 with a 58% Success Rate.
Indiana fuels its Havoc numbers with sacks, tackles for loss and fumbles. The Hoosiers haven't been as lucky when it comes to defending the deep pass, ranking 46th in pass breakups and 62nd in contested catch rate.
Alabama and Ohio State combined for nine explosive passes against the Indiana secondary, but red-zone issues favored the Hoosiers.
Oregon must play better than its rank of 35th in Offensive Finishing Drives and 68th in red-zone scoring to have any chance of beating Indiana.
Indiana Hoosiers
Since its injury-filled near-stumble against Penn State in Week 11, Indiana has played flawlessly in the box score.
The Hoosiers averaged more than 10 yards per play against Purdue, beat Ohio State in yards per play and gained 67% of available yards against Alabama.
The offensive is led by running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black on the ground.
Hemby has a heavier percentage when it comes to using inside zone read, and Black has excelled in gap blocking assignments from the Hoosiers' offensive line.
Both running backs have taken advantage of defenses that have a historical weakness against either of the concepts.
The Oregon defense has been mid-FBS against inside zone and gap blocking, but it has been one of the best defenses in limiting explosives.
Opponents using inside zone and man have averaged an explosive play on one of every 20 attempts. In the Week 7 meeting between these two teams, Indiana failed to create a rush greater than 20 yards.
The ultimate battle in this game is getting Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza into passing downs. Oregon ranks fifth in standard downs Success Rate allowed, forcing Indiana to convert just 5-of-14 third-down attempts in their previous meeting.
The Ducks have one of the best secondaries in the nation, finishing sixth in PFF coverage grading and 10th in contested catch rate. Oregon is the only FBS team on Indiana's schedule to keep Mendoza from posting a big-time throw this season.
Mendoza must also take the field against a revamped defensive look, as defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi has moved on from basic Cover 3 principles.
Oregon has updated to a Cover 2 shell while allowing safety Dillon Thieneman to patrol freely as needed. The change paid off against Texas Tech. The Ducks defense pitched a shutout, while Thieneman posted a season high in tackles and stops.
The numbers indicate Indiana will create methodical drives that extend into scoring position. The Ducks have been stingy on opponent red-zone attempts, allowing an average of just 2.2 per game.
Indiana bulldozed that number in the Week 7 game, scoring on all five red-zone attempts against the Oregon defense.
The Hoosiers' greatest chance of victory is staying on schedule, as passing downs will give Lanning and Lupoi a chance to disrupt Mendoza.
Indiana vs Oregon Prediction
Indiana will methodically drive the ball into Oregon territory thanks to the combination of Hemby and Black on the ground.
In the case the Hoosiers fall into passing downs, the Ducks will have the advantage with one of the best pass coverage units in FBS.
The issue for Oregon is the lack of elite run defense against inside zone and man run concepts. However, the Hoosiers won't have the benefit of free yards, as the Ducks rank eighth in broken tackles allowed.
If Indiana stays on schedule, Oregon should give up points in a similar fashion to the five red-zone attempts and three touchdowns scored by the Hoosiers in Week 7.
If the IU offense falls into passing downs, the Ducks will have the upper hand after limiting Mendoza to zero big-time throws earlier this season.
Mendoza did throw an interception against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game and also logged a turnover-worthy play against Alabama in the Rose Bowl.
Now, the Heisman winner will have a new-look Ducks defense that has peeled off Cover 3.
A Mendoza interception prop should have enough positive juice to warrant a play backing an Oregon defense that gave the Heisman winner his toughest day of the season.
Oregon will be thankful to be on the fast track of Mercedez-Benz Stadium with improved health for the wide receiver group.
Explosive passes may be the Ducks' key to generating scoring attempts, as Indiana falls outside the top 25 in 10-plus yard passes allowed.
Moore had an average depth of target of just 6.2 yards against Texas Tech, but Oregon posted four passing plays over 20 yards in that game.
Moore should find a way get down the field against an Indiana defense that struggles to contain explosives in passing downs. The venue may assist in explosives as well, with 13 of the last 14 Peach Bowls featuring at least 45 points.
Action Network projects Indiana as a 3.5-point favorite, but the current version of Oregon is evolving.
Lupoi’s defense has thrown wrinkles to disguise coverages and potential blitzes since the start of the CFP against James Madison.
Offensively, returning players at the wideout position give a multi-dimensional offense even more tools to create explosive plays in space.
Pick: Oregon +4 · Over 47 · Fernando Mendoza Over 0.5 Interceptions (+105)
