The 2025-26 College Football Playoff rolls on Friday night with the 2026 Peach Bowl matchup between the No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (14-0) and No. 5 Oregon Ducks (13-1).
Our experts from the "Big Bets On Campus" podcast have two correlated bets for the second of two College Football Playoff semifinals.
Let's take a look at our 2026 Peach Bowl picks and college football predictions for Indiana vs. Oregon.
2026 Peach Bowl Odds, Betting Lines: Ducks vs. Hoosiers
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +150 |
Calabrese's Indiana vs. Oregon Pick: Indiana ML -175
I’m taking Indiana on the moneyline pregame at -175 instead of laying the 4 points.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore is a very specific type of QB. When everything’s humming with a clean pocket, heavy run game, RPOs and play-action, he can light it up.
He operated from a clean pocket on about 77% of his dropbacks this season and posted 27 big-time throws, 25 touchdowns and six interceptions with an adjusted completion percentage north of 83% in those situations. That’s the Moore we know.
But that version of Moore is largely a product of head coach Dan Lanning’s roster architecture. This team features a top-tier offensive line, a deep backfield (that's now down Jordon Davison) and a playbook built by offensive coordinator Will Stein, who recently accepted the head coaching job at Kentucky.
A lot of Moore’s production was “empty calories.” Over a third of his passing touchdowns came with Oregon up by 22 points or more.
When he’s tested by top defenses, it’s another story. Against Penn State, Iowa, Indiana and Texas Tech (all top-25 defenses), his QBR came in at 51.8 with four touchdowns and four picks on 6.1 yards per attempt.
Matchup history matters. Indiana sacked Moore six times in the first meeting, and it has the run defense to force him into obvious passing situations early.
Oregon’s usual pressure rate allowed this season was about 23%, but that doubled against Indiana (48% of dropbacks under pressure).
For context, in the Rose Bowl, IU got to Alabama's quarterbacks a ton, with 16 pressures on 40 dropbacks (40%). Moore hasn’t faced that much sustained heat all year. I think Indiana will make life miserable, especially once it takes away the run.
Situational football is another edge for Indiana. Its third-down work and prep-based game-planning matter a lot against a signal-caller who's at his best in clean situations.
And on the other side, I expect Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti to be well-prepared and effective. That’ll keep this game lower scoring and tighter than the market expects.
Ultimately, I'm not interested in laying the points. I’ll take Indiana ML -175 pregame.
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Stuckey's 2026 Peach Bowl Pick: Indiana -3 or Better
This is a rematch from earlier in the season when Indiana went to Eugene and pretty much dominated Oregon.
I re-watched that game to see what’s changed. A few things have — mostly injuries on Oregon’s side. They’ve lost a couple of running backs, including Jordon Davison.
They still have Noah Whittington and Dierre Hill Jr., but the depth at the position that used to be a strength has been tested.
If you look on paper, Oregon has more pure talent and more blue-chip recruits. But Indiana has more physical seniors who controlled the line of scrimmage in that first meeting.
They pressured Dante Moore all day. Moore has been shaky under pressure this year and lucky against blitzes, and when he’s hit by a really good defense, the Oregon offense looks pedestrian.
In Eugene, the Hoosiers blitzed him on close to 50% of his dropbacks, and he was under fire the whole game.
That’s exactly the game plan that beats Oregon: run the ball, control the clock, get into manageable third downs and keep Moore uncomfortable. Indiana does that better than almost anyone.
The Hoosiers' front gets push, owns third-down situations, and their defensive pressure packages have been excellent all season. I expect a lot of that cat-and-mouse between Oregon’s adjustments and Indiana’s blitz looks.
Both staffs will try to out-scheme each other, but the fundamentals favor Indiana.
A few stats to sum it up: Indiana leads the country in third-down offense with a conversion rate of roughly 55% and ranks fourth in third-down defense at just 29%. Oregon sits 28th in third-down offense and 41st on third-down defense.
Indiana gives the ball away just 0.6 times per game (fourth); Oregon is around 0.9 (21st). Penalties? Indiana averages about 3.4 per game (third) versus Oregon’s 5.2 (33rd).
Those execution metrics — third down, turnovers and penalties — all give the edge to Indiana.
In the trenches, Indiana’s offensive line against Oregon’s defensive line should also be a favorable matchup for the Hoosiers and set up those manageable third downs.
Could Oregon adjust and make it close? Sure. Rematches often give the team that lost the first meeting a better shot, and the Ducks probably have more raw athletic upside.
But I trust Indiana’s coaching staff and the senior-laden roster to make their own tweaks.
Also, Oregon might be vulnerable against Fernando Mendoza’s legs. More designed quarterback runs could be a good wrinkle for the Hoosiers to add to their game plan.
I make Indiana about a 4-point favorite, but I want it at -3. I have some Hoosiers moneyline exposure already, and I’ll add if the price gets down to -3 or if I can get them live.
Expect a competitive game, but I think Indiana’s execution and toughness in the trenches get it done.
