The No. 1 Indiana Hoosiers (14-0, 9-0 Big Ten) take on the No. 5 Oregon Ducks (13-1, 8-1 Big Ten) in the 2026 Peach Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinals on Friday, Jan. 9, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Indiana, which enters as a -3.5 favorite, has been on a roll this season. The Hoosiers downed Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, 13-10, to secure the 1-seed in the CFP and then dominated No. 9 Alabama, 38-3, in the quarterfinals last week to reach the Final Four.
Oregon, meanwhile, crushed No. 12 James Madison in the first round, 51-34, before shutting out No. 4 Texas Tech, 23-0, in the quarterfinals.
In fact, the Ducks' lone blemish this season was a 30-20 loss to this very same Indiana team on Oct. 11.
With Oregon looking for revenge and the rematch set at a neutral site with a trip to the CFP National Championship on the line, which side holds the advantage?
We polled 11 of our college football writers to get their take on the spread and over/under, so let's dive into our Indiana vs. Oregon picks and college football predictions for the College Football Playoff on Friday, Jan. 9.
Indiana vs. Oregon Odds, Line
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -109 | 48.5 -110o / -113u | -195 |
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -117 | 48.5 -110o / -113u | +155 |
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Oregon +3.5
By Joshua Nunn
Our staff has varying opinions on this game, with a slight majority leaning toward Oregon to cover the number.
I can see siding with the Ducks here for a couple of reasons.
Their defense showed up in a big way last week against Texas Tech. Shutting out the Red Raiders and forcing Tech into uncomfortable situations where they were never going to execute properly was critical for this defense.
Oregon ranks fifth nationally in yards per play allowed and third in yards per pass allowed. There's a path for the Ducks to stop the ground attack and force Indiana into throwing the ball effectively to move it here.
Teitum Tuioti and Matayo Uiagalelei have a combined 15.5 sacks between them. If Oregon can continue to get pressure and force negative plays, we could see this Indiana offense look a little bit different than it did during most of the regular season.
Oregon could benefit from how the game played out in the first meeting, a 30-20 home defeat back on Oct. 11.
The Ducks offense is healthier and better equipped than it has been, and I expect head coach Dan Lanning to find creative ways to get Dakorien Moore and Malik Benson the ball in space and let them go to work.
The offensive line should also hold up in pass protection. As long as quarterback Dante Moore remains efficient and avoids mistakes, the Ducks should find themselves with opportunities to put points on the board.
There's a real chance that this game is a slow-burning grinder, and points could be at a premium. These two were fairly even in the box score in the first meeting, and one or two additional plays could flip the result this time around.
I think our staff feels that taking more than a field goal between these evenly-matched teams makes a lot of sense, and I can also see this one ending as a field-goal game.
Over/Under Pick
Over 48.5 | 4 Picks |
Pass | 1 Pick |
Under 48.5 | 6 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 48.5
By Road to CFB
Our staff is pretty evenly split on the total here, with 6-of-11 voters siding with the under. That split makes sense given the talent level on both sides of the ball, plus an outing that featured 50 points (43 scored on offense) earlier in the season.
In Eugene the first time around, Indiana bested Oregon, 30-20. Those 50 combined points would send you over the total in this instance, but don’t forget Oregon returned an interception for a touchdown in that game. I doubt anyone’s here to predict a defensive score, but it counts against the total nonetheless.
Where our under voters’ hesitancy to bet the over likely comes from is Indiana's dominant performance against an Alabama team whose strength came on the offensive side of the ball.
The Tide mustered three points and gained just 32% of available yards. Despite having nine drives apiece, Indiana outgained Alabama, 408-193.
The other factor here is the rematch. Oregon is surely bound to make adjustments after allowing 30 in its own stadium in October.
Despite having just watched Indiana score 38 without breaking a sweat, the rematch element favors an under play.
Against its top opponents (Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon in Week 7 and Illinois in Week 4), Indiana allowed three combined offensive touchdowns. Even against sturdier offensive lines, IU's defensive front crushes and disrupts any rhythm offenses hope to have.
Oregon also just shut down Texas Tech’s offense (which was clearly a flawed unit) in a 23-0 Orange Bowl quarterfinal.
The defensive front overwhelmed Tech’s offensive line, and cornerback Brandon Finney Jr. led the charge for a lockdown secondary with two interceptions.
Notably, Oregon is without running back Jordon Davison, who accounted for 15 rushing touchdowns this season.
The defensive lines have the nod here for both teams, making the lean toward an under sensible.
