The Oregon Ducks take on the Indiana Hoosiers in the 2026 Peach Bowl and College Football Playoff semifinals in Atlanta, Georgia, on Friday, Jan. 9. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Indiana is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -180. Oregon, meanwhile, enters as a +3.5 underdog and is +154 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 46.5 total points.
Both Oregon and Indiana made their New Year’s Day quarterfinal games look easy.
The Ducks blanked Texas Tech in the Orange Bowl, allowing the Red Raiders to enter the red zone just once. The Hoosiers, meanwhile, cruised on the West Coast in the Rose Bowl, slamming Alabama without allowing a single touchdown.
The teams are now set for a rematch after an epic Week 7 game that saw Indiana leave Eugene with a 10-point victory.
The Hoosiers executed on defense against the Ducks, intercepting quarterback Dante Moore twice while creating eight tackles for loss.
Oregon couldn't convert in the red zone, failing to score a touchdown in three trips. The opposite was true for Indiana, which scored on all five red-zone trips, with three of those scores being touchdowns.
Running back Roman Hemby led the offense in rushing yards while posting two touchdowns on the ground. The Oregon defense missed just seven tackles in the loss, while the offense converted just 3-of-14 attempts on third down.
Oregon has looked the part of a national title contender since the loss to Indiana. The Ducks grinded out road victories against Iowa and Washington in the regular season before scoring 51 points against James Madison in the first round of the playoff.
The biggest handicap entering this game is whether the Ducks can match Indiana's Havoc-minded defense while stopping a Hoosiers offense that never falls off schedule.
Here’s my Oregon vs. Indiana prediction and college football picks for Friday, January 9.
Oregon Ducks vs Indiana Hoosiers Prediction, Picks
- Oregon vs. Indiana Pick: Oregon +4 · Over 48.5 · Mendoza Over 0.5 Interceptions (+105)
My Indiana vs. Oregon best bet is on the Ducks to cover the spread, both teams to go over the total and Hoosiers quarterback Fernando Mendoza to throw an interception. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Indiana vs Oregon Betting Odds, Lines
| Oregon Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Point Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -170 |
- Oregon vs Indiana Point Spread: Indiana -3, Oregon +3
- Oregon vs Indiana Total: 49.5 Total Points
- Oregon vs Indiana ML: Oregon ML +145, Indiana ML -170
Oregon Ducks
Head coach Dan Lanning has done a masterful job with an offense that has been without key players during the second half of the season.
Wide receivers Dakorien Moore and Gary Bryant Jr. returned to full health against Texas Tech, garnering a combined six targets.
Neither had much of an impact in the box score, but Oregon had been a shell of its formerly explosive offense without Moore in the slot.
Oregon has feasted on owning the line of scrimmage since the loss to Indiana.
Offensive coordinator Will Stein, who will take over as Kentucky's head coach following the season, runs a heavy amount of zone read with a mixture of power and pulling linemen.
Every run concept sits above the national average ranks, with inside zone and man blocking assignments generating at least a 63% Success Rate.
The biggest hurdle for the Ducks is an Indiana defense that hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown since it played Penn State in Week 11. Indiana leads the nation in defensive red-zone touchdown rate, allowing just six rushing scores the entire season.
The Hoosiers have been elite against all run concepts, specifically in posting a minimum 57% Success Rate against zone read. Indiana has nearly played a perfect season defensively, ranking as the top overall team in Havoc and Finishing Drives allowed.
Where Indiana can become vulnerable is against the pass, ranking 82nd in EPA allowed on passing downs.
Head coach Curt Cignetti plays one of the lowest rates of man coverage in the nation, opting for a heavy amount of Cover 3 mixed with Cover 2.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore has been excellent against Cover 3 with a 58% Success Rate.
Indiana fuels its Havoc numbers with sacks, tackles for loss and fumbles. The Hoosiers haven't been as lucky when it comes to defending the deep pass, ranking 46th in pass breakups and 62nd in contested catch rate.
Alabama and Ohio State combined for nine explosive passes against the Indiana secondary, but red-zone issues favored the Hoosiers.
Oregon must play better than its rank of 35th in Offensive Finishing Drives and 68th in red-zone scoring to have any chance of beating Indiana.
Indiana Hoosiers
Since its injury-filled near-stumble against Penn State in Week 11, Indiana has played flawlessly in the box score.
The Hoosiers averaged more than 10 yards per play against Purdue, beat Ohio State in yards per play and gained 67% of available yards against Alabama.
The offensive is led by running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black on the ground.
Hemby has a heavier percentage when it comes to using inside zone read, and Black has excelled in gap blocking assignments from the Hoosiers' offensive line.
Both running backs have taken advantage of defenses that have a historical weakness against either of the concepts.
The Oregon defense has been mid-FBS against inside zone and gap blocking, but it has been one of the best defenses in limiting explosives.
Opponents using inside zone and man have averaged an explosive play on one of every 20 attempts. In the Week 7 meeting between these two teams, Indiana failed to create a rush greater than 20 yards.
The ultimate battle in this game is getting Heisman-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza into passing downs. Oregon ranks fifth in standard downs Success Rate allowed, forcing Indiana to convert just 5-of-14 third-down attempts in their previous meeting.
The Ducks have one of the best secondaries in the nation, finishing sixth in PFF coverage grading and 10th in contested catch rate. Oregon is the only FBS team on Indiana's schedule to keep Mendoza from posting a big-time throw this season.
Mendoza must also take the field against a revamped defensive look, as defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi has moved on from basic Cover 3 principles.
Oregon has updated to a Cover 2 shell while allowing safety Dillon Thieneman to patrol freely as needed. The change paid off against Texas Tech. The Ducks defense pitched a shutout, while Thieneman posted a season high in tackles and stops.
The numbers indicate Indiana will create methodical drives that extend into scoring position. The Ducks have been stingy on opponent red-zone attempts, allowing an average of just 2.2 per game.
Indiana bulldozed that number in the Week 7 game, scoring on all five red-zone attempts against the Oregon defense.
The Hoosiers' greatest chance of victory is staying on schedule, as passing downs will give Lanning and Lupoi a chance to disrupt Mendoza.
Oregon vs Indiana NCAAF Pick to Bet
Indiana will methodically drive the ball into Oregon territory thanks to the combination of Hemby and Black on the ground.
In the case the Hoosiers fall into passing downs, the Ducks will have the advantage with one of the best pass coverage units in FBS.
The issue for Oregon is the lack of elite run defense against inside zone and man run concepts. However, the Hoosiers won't have the benefit of free yards, as the Ducks rank eighth in broken tackles allowed.
If Indiana stays on schedule, Oregon should give up points in a similar fashion to the five red-zone attempts and three touchdowns scored by the Hoosiers in Week 7.
If the IU offense falls into passing downs, the Ducks will have the upper hand after limiting Mendoza to zero big-time throws earlier this season.
Mendoza did throw an interception against Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game and also logged a turnover-worthy play against Alabama in the Rose Bowl.
Now, the Heisman winner will have a new-look Ducks defense that has peeled off Cover 3.
A Mendoza interception prop should have enough positive juice to warrant a play backing an Oregon defense that gave the Heisman winner his toughest day of the season.
Oregon will be thankful to be on the fast track of Mercedez-Benz Stadium with improved health for the wide receiver group.
Explosive passes may be the Ducks' key to generating scoring attempts, as Indiana falls outside the top 25 in 10-plus yard passes allowed.
Moore had an average depth of target of just 6.2 yards against Texas Tech, but Oregon posted four passing plays over 20 yards in that game.
Moore should find a way get down the field against an Indiana defense that struggles to contain explosives in passing downs. The venue may assist in explosives as well, with 13 of the last 14 Peach Bowls featuring at least 45 points.
Action Network projects Indiana as a 3.5-point favorite, but the current version of Oregon is evolving.
Lupoi’s defense has thrown wrinkles to disguise coverages and potential blitzes since the start of the CFP against James Madison.
Offensively, returning players at the wideout position give a multi-dimensional offense even more tools to create explosive plays in space.
Pick: Oregon +4 · Over 47 (Play to 49) · Fernando Mendoza Over 0.5 Interceptions (+105)
Oregon vs Indiana Trend to Know
