Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (13) is unable to catch the ball while being defended by Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Ronald Darby (21).
- There are five player props offering betting value on Sunday's main slate.
- Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton will return to the lineup, but doesn't have a favorable matchup against the Bills.
Betting the under on player prop bets is roughly zero fun. You’re either losing the bet before the game’s over, or you’re sweating it until the final whistle.
But between the ever-present risk of injury and often-inflated lines for big-name players, it can be a profitable way to attack.
This seems like one of those weeks, and indeed, we see the unders peppering the Player Props tool.
Here are our overall records through Week 5:
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 138-65 (67%)
- Article picks : 13-3 (81%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 139-111 (56%)
Colts WR T.Y. Hilton
Under 62.5 Receiving Yards (-105 @ 5 Dimes)
He’s been cleared from the injury report, but hamstring injuries have a way of lingering, so I’m not anticipating Hilton being 100%.
After two weeks away, he doesn’t get a soft landing either, as he’s likely to get the hand-in-glove treatment from Bills cornerback Tre’Davious Wright.
While the Bills have been carved up by Adam Thielen (105 yards) and Davante Adams (83 yards), they’ve also kept Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins and John Brown in check to the tune of 67, 63, and 44 yards respectively.
With bet quality of nine on this prop, the plus odds are a a solid value, and I’d be willing to pay up to -115 and move as far as 59.5 yards.