Best Week 7 Player Prop Bets: Fading T.Y. Hilton and Hammering Unders
Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Indianapolis Colts wide receiver T.Y. Hilton (13) is unable to catch the ball while being defended by Philadelphia Eagles cornerback Ronald Darby (21).
- There are five player props offering betting value on Sunday's main slate.
- Colts receiver T.Y. Hilton will return to the lineup, but doesn't have a favorable matchup against the Bills.
Betting the under on player prop bets is roughly zero fun. You’re either losing the bet before the game’s over, or you’re sweating it until the final whistle.
But between the ever-present risk of injury and often-inflated lines for big-name players, it can be a profitable way to attack.
This seems like one of those weeks, and indeed, we see the unders peppering the Player Props tool.
Here are our overall records through Week 5:
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 138-65 (67%)
- Article picks : 13-3 (81%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 139-111 (56%)
Colts WR T.Y. Hilton
Under 62.5 Receiving Yards (-105 @ 5 Dimes)
He’s been cleared from the injury report, but hamstring injuries have a way of lingering, so I’m not anticipating Hilton being 100%.
After two weeks away, he doesn’t get a soft landing either, as he’s likely to get the hand-in-glove treatment from Bills cornerback Tre’Davious Wright.
While the Bills have been carved up by Adam Thielen (105 yards) and Davante Adams (83 yards), they’ve also kept Keenan Allen, DeAndre Hopkins and John Brown in check to the tune of 67, 63, and 44 yards respectively.
With bet quality of nine on this prop, the plus odds are a a solid value, and I’d be willing to pay up to -115 and move as far as 59.5 yards.
Panthers TE Greg Olsen
Under 4.5 Receptions (-135 @ 5 Dimes)
Olsen had four catches on seven targets in his Week 6 return to the lineup and faces a Philadelphia defense which has played well against the position, allowing:
- The third-fewest targets (32).
- The fewest receptions (19).
- The fourth-fewest yards.
Dating back to the start of the 2017 season, Olsen’s reached five or more receptions in just one of his past nine starts regular season starts.
I would play this line as low as four receptions, and already at -135, wouldn’t be willing to pay much more juice.
Taylor Gabriel > Will Fuller, Receiving Yards
(+100 @ Betonline.ag)
This may not technically be an under, but it’s definitely a Will Fuller fade.
Gabriel has been a picture of efficiency over the last two games, catching all 12 of his targets for 214 yards. I’d rather bet on volume, but it’s not like Fuller has been any more involved — he’s averaged just 3.7 targets over his last three games, failing to hit 50 yards once.
Gabriel is also in a much better spot.
- New England has been notably annihilated by speedy, multi-faceted receivers like Gabirel — Tyreek Hill put up 142 yards, while Keelan Cole posted 116.
- Allen Robinson missed two practices with a new injury, which popped up mid-week, opening the door for more work for Gabriel.
- Fuller faces a Jaguars defense that’s given up that fewest yards per game to opposing receivers, one that held Fuller to yardage totals of 44 and 42 in two meetings last year.
The Texans have an implied point total of 19.5, while Chicago’s 23.5 implied total reflects the increased potential for a shootout.
Sean Koerner’s projections — 54 to 47 yards in favor of Gabriel — seal what looks like a phenomenal value, especially at this number.
Titans WR Corey Davis
Under 64.5 Receiving Yards (-115 @ Sportsbook.com)
Take away his 161-yard explosion against a sad-sack Eagles secondary, and Davis has yardage totals of 62, 55, 34, 49, and 24 on the year.
The road ahead travels through London and will feature a heavy dose of Casey Hayward. He’s taken to shadowing the opposing No. 1 wide receiver in recent weeks, resulting in lines of 11 yards for Jarvis Landry, 10 for Amari Cooper, and 52 for Pierre Garcon.
The Titans are an offense in complete shambles, and a trip overseas is not the time to get right.
I would play this number to 59.5 yards, but not much further, and would be willing to pay about -120 in vig.
Browns WR Damien Ratley
Under 39.5 Yards (-115 @ 5 Dimes)
I don’t know where Ratley’s 8-6-82-yard line came from last week, but I’m willing to bet it’s not repeatable, even with Rashard Higgins still out, and even against a hemorrhaging Buccaneers secondary giving up the fourth-most yards to wide receivers.
This has the “feel” of a get-right spot for Jarvis Landry, who has just seven receptions in the past two weeks.
If the game plan involves something near another eight targets for the sixth-round Rookie Ratley — who had zero career targets before Sunday — well, more power to the Browns coaching staff for being smarter than me.
It’s more than just a feel play, however — this bet has a rating of 10 in the props tool, with a comforting 28 percent difference between the implied line and our projections.
I’d give away another four yards, to 35.5, and the juice would have to move past -120 before I would reconsider.