The NFL season enters Week 12, and I have some NFL prop bets locked in for Sunday for Seahawks vs Titans, Giants vs Lions, Browns vs Raiders, Falcons vs Saints and Jets vs Ravens.
Let's get into my Week 12 player props.
Week 12 NFL Player Prop Bets
- Sam Darnold Under 19.5 Pass Completions (-112; FanDuel); 0.56 units
- Tyrone Tracy Jr. Under 13.5 Rush Attempts (-132; DraftKings); 0.66 units
- John Metchie Over 2.5 Receptions (-126; DraftKings); 0.63 units
- Shedeur Sanders Under 19.5 Rushing Yards (-116; DraftKings); 0.58 units
- Tyler Shough Under 18.5 Pass Completions (+100; DraftKings); 0.5 units
Important disclaimer regarding my unit sizing:
The reason I use 0.5 units as a baseline has nothing to do with my confidence on a pick. It’s about expanding the threshold for what qualifies as an “official play.”
Instead of posting four full-unit plays, I can post eight half-unit plays. That gives followers more chances to get similar odds since lines often move quickly after I post.
For lower-limit markets like tackles, books also dictate my actual stake since I can’t always get full exposure. Every play I post is one I’m confident in.
The 0.5u label simply reflects a structural change, not uncertainty. My real confidence is reflected in the projected hit rate versus the implied odds, and it’s up to you to decide how much value is still there at current prices.
Sam Darnold Pass Completions
Greg Olsen recently pointed out that teams should not match up against Seattle’s heavy personnel on early downs with base because the Seahawks were using it to set up the pass.
The Rams countered that last week and Sam Darnold had his worst game of the season, throwing four interceptions. I think it makes sense for Seattle to respond with a more run-heavy game plan here, and this matchup supports it because the Titans have one of the worst run defenses in the league, ranking 30th in DVOA.
As nearly 14 point favorites, this is the exact type of spot where the Seahawks should lean on the run, shorten the game, and put Darnold in fewer obvious passing situations.
Darnold tends to make his completions count; he ranks second in the league with 63.5 yards per game on throws 20+ yards downfield. The Titans have allowed the fourth-highest yards per attempt on passes 20+ yards downfield.
Those deeper attempts are great for this market because they are lower percentage throws, and when they are completed, they move the ball further down the field, which lowers play volume, increases the likelihood of scoring and helps create more run heavy scripts.
So the game plan we want is pretty simple. The Seahawks run the ball early and often, and when they take shots, they are deep ones.
That combination gives Darnold fewer total attempts and fewer short, easy completions. I’m projecting him closer to 18.7 completions with around a 59% chance he stays under 19.5.
Tyrone Tracy Jr. Rush Attempts
Last week was the perfect storm for Tyrone Tracy Jr. to rack up a 19/88/0 rushing line.
The Giants had a -18.3% PROE, which was the third-most run heavy called game of the entire season. It was the first post-Brian Daboll game with Mike Kafka calling plays and they were able to keep it close before eventually losing 27-20, but they dominated time of possession at close to 36 minutes and ran 69 plays.
That is extremely unlikely to repeat here.
Against the Lions, it’s a completely different script. Detroit should control time of possession, get out to a big enough lead, and force the Giants to be more pass heavy. It makes perfect sense to fade the Giants' run game and Tracy specifically is a good sell-high spot off a 19 carry game.
Tracy continues to concede short-yardage and goal-line work to Devin Singletary, which really lowers his floor in this market. Tracy needs the Giants to stay close and maintain an extreme run heavy approach.
I do think Kafka will keep them more run leaning going forward, but something closer to a -2 to -3% PROE, not the extreme we saw last week. The Giants are also expected to trail at a +18% higher rate than their season average, which pushes them toward more passing.
I’m projecting Tracy closer to 12.1 carries with around a 65% chance to stay under 13.5. I was already prepared to take under 12.5 at around a 56% chance, so getting an extra attempt (even at -132) is a bonus.
A more pass-heavy script, plus Devin Singletary eating into early down, short yardage, and goal line snaps, lowers Tracy’s ceiling and makes this a strong sell-high spot.
John Metchie Receptions
John Metchie has bounced around over the past couple of seasons but is still just 25 years old and a former second-round pick (2022). He may have finally found a real opportunity with the Jets, where he’s positioned to be a featured receiver the rest of the season.
He quietly drew targets on 31% of his routes in limited snaps with the Eagles earlier this season, which is elite territory for any WR.
Since joining New York, Metchie's played in two games where Justin Fields completed only six and 15 passes, leaving little chance for anyone to produce.
This week, it’ll be Tyrod Taylor under center and a much more pass-heavy game script against the Ravens.
Metchie’s routes run rate jumped to 73% last week, and he’s essentially filling the Garrett Wilson role while Wilson remains on IR. Taylor has funneled targets to that spot in his two starts this season, connecting with Wilson for 10/84/1 in Week 3, and when Wilson was out in Week 7, Tyler Johnson filled in and went for 3/60/0 in that same role.
Given Metchie’s low aDOT (4.8) and high catch-rate role, his reception prop looks stronger than his yardage prop. I have him projected closer to 3.2 receptions with about a 61% chance to clear 2.5.
Shedeur Sanders Rushing Yards
I was a little surprised to see Shedeur Sanders’ rush prop this high for his first start.
It is a tricky projection because we are still trying to figure out what his scramble rate will look like in the NFL. He scrambled at a 7% rate at Colorado last year, a 5.1% rate in preseason on 39 dropbacks, and a 14% rate last week when he scrambled three times on 21 dropbacks for 16 yards.
If he settles in at a 10%+ scramble rate, he will blow past this number. I still think he ends up more in the 5-7% range as he is more of a pocket passer and usually looks to throw rather than pull it down.
Last week, Sanders was thrown into the fire and was under pressure on a ridiculous 52.4% of his dropbacks, so it is not shocking that he scrambled more.
Now he had a full week to prepare, and this is a game where the Browns should be able to lean heavily on the run. That should naturally lower his dropback volume. He also faces a Raiders defense with the second-lowest pressure rate in the league, which should give him a cleaner pocket and fewer forced scrambles.
I still think we see 2-3 scrambles, but I am not expecting many designed runs for Sanders (if any). It is a very wide range of outcomes and not a spot you feel overly confident projecting one way or the other.
But I regretted not taking Tyler Shough under 19.5 a couple of weeks ago (he is now in the 8.5 range) because he never profiled as a QB who would use his legs enough to warrant a prop in this range. Sanders looks similar in that sense.
If Sanders clears this easily and shows he is actually going to be a 10%+ scramble rate QB, I will adjust my expected scramble rate and his rushing projections going forward.
For now, this is a spot I want to attack early. I have his median closer to 15.5 and around a 60% chance he stays under 19.5.
Tyler Shough Pass Completions
Kellen Moore has taken a very run heavy approach in his first season as Saints head coach and cranked it up even more in Tyler Shough’s two starts, with an average PROE of -7.5%.
I’ve actually been impressed with Shough so far and think he’s an upgrade over Spencer Rattler. The market now has the Saints as 2.5-point home favorites over the Falcons.
The Saints are 2-8 and have played with the lead only 13% of the time (league worst), yet as slight favorites they are projected to play with a lead at a +31% higher rate than their season average. That is about as big of a jump as you’ll see this late in the year. It sets up a game where the Saints can lean on the run and naturally limit Shough’s dropbacks.
When he does drop back, the matchup gets tougher.
The Falcons have allowed the fourth-fewest completions per game. They blitz at the second-highest rate and generate the fifth-highest pressure rate.
Shough has seen his completion rate fall off a ton against both the blitz and pressure, and when facing the blitz, he is pushing the ball downfield at a 27% deep rate which would lead all 34 qualified QBs.
His aDOT of 9.5 yards would also lead the league. So when Moore has him drop back, he is making those throws count. They are downfield, low completion rate, high-variance attempts. That is perfect for this market.
You also get the usual Taysom Hill package mixing in. He will take a handful of snaps under center which means there are a handful of plays where Shough has a 0% chance to complete a pass. That lowers his floor a bit more specifically for completions.
I’m projecting him closer to 17.5 completions with around a 60% chance to stay under 18.5.
