Texans vs Steelers Anytime Touchdown Scorer Props: Monday Picks for Wild Card

Texans vs Steelers Anytime Touchdown Picks

Nico Collins Anytime Touchdown (+150)

My favorite TD bet of the Wild Card Round is upon us: Texans WR Nico Collins.

I know the Texans have looked shaky at times on offense, but this is dream matchup for Collins.

The Steelers rank top-five in man coverage and single-high safety, and Collins leads the Texans in targets per route run (TPRR) and yards per route run (YPRR) against those coverages this season.

The Steelers could have trouble moving the ball on offense, which should also give the Texans more possessions.

Another reason why I like Collins is there’s a historical output of him thriving in the postseason. In four career playoff games, he’s seen at least seven or more targets, while scoring in two of them.

It’s obviously super chalky, and QB C.J. Stroud could easily spread it around to Jayden Higgins, Xavier Hutchinson or Dalton Schultz, but I trust Stroud to target Collins early and often, especially on some deep balls since the Steelers have struggled defending deep passes compared to short-range targets.

Pick: Nico Collins Anytime Touchdown (+150)

Pat Freiermuth Anytime Touchdown (+400)

With the Steelers getting WR DK Metcalf back, I think we cut the BS with all the Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Adam Thielen targets.

MVS and Thielen have combined for 25 targets over the last two games with Metcalf suspended, but I expect that to regress back to the mean with Metcalf leading the team in target share.

Still, he’s likely going to see a heavy dose of CB Derek Stingley, and even at +200 or better, I want no part of Metcalf tonight.

In Week 18, we bet on TE Pat Freiermuth at +350 in hopes he would see an increased role with TE Darnell Washington out. While he didn’t score, Freiermuth had a 70% route participation and an end-zone target.

Now, we’re getting him at +400, and I have him showing the highest edge for a Steeler to score with closer to +330 fair odds.

I would also point out that while TE Connor Heyward has scored two rushing TDs over the last four games as the tush push option, he’s essentially priced out now at +600 compared to when we got him at +2000 in Week 14.

You can still take him if you believe the Steelers will score near the goal line via that method, but I’d rather just take Freiermuth because I know he’ll be on the field the most of any Steelers TE.

Pick: Pat Freiermuth Anytime Touchdown (+400)