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NFL Week 1 Betting Picks: Chiefs-Jaguars Line Offering Early Value


Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes

  • NFL Week 1 betting odds are now available in Las Vegas.
  • By comparing Sean Koerner's projected spreads to current odds, the Week 1 matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Jacksonville Jaguars is one offering betting value.

It’s never too early for NFL betting value, right? In all seriousness, tying up money in a bet for Week 1 before even the NFL Draft may be tough for most bettors, and that certainly makes sense.

There are still plenty of changes to rosters coming, along with the inevitable training camp and preseason injuries that seem to plague at least a few teams every season.

Still, following last week’s NFL regular season schedule release, oddsmakers wasted no time posted betting odds for Week 1. Using his NFL power ratings, The Action Network’s Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, couldn’t help but to create spreads for every game of the 2019 regular season, including Week 1.

By comparing his projected point spreads to actual Week 1 odds, we can determine which games are already offering value. And after performing this exercise, Chiefs-Jaguars is the matchup oddsmakers seem to be overvaluing, especially when considering key NFL betting numbers.

The Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas lists the Chiefs as 4.5-point road favorites against the Jaguars. Kansas City, which posted a 12-4 record before losing to New England in the AFC Championship Game last season, should clearly be favored against Jacksonville (5-11 record in 2018).

However, Koerner’s ratings expect this to be a much closer game, as his numbers make the line Chiefs -2.5.

This is a significant difference from the current point spread, especially considering the importance of the numbers 3 and 4 in NFL betting.

Betting NFL Week 1 more than four months before the games will actually played isn’t for everyone. But if you are entertaining the idea, consider taking the Jags and the points.

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