Will There Be Overtime or a Safety In Rams vs. Bengals? Odds For This 2022 Super Bowl Prop Bet
Photo by Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Donald #99 of the Los Angeles Rams
Everybody loves betting on Super Bowl props. More so than ever, people have a thirst for action on the biggest game of the year, even if those bets aren't necessarily ones we expect to win, like the coin flip.
Sure, we want to win a coin-flip bet, but we go into it understanding that we're laying -105 odds on a bet with a 50% chance of winning.
But for some Super Bowl props, it's not always about winning — it's often just about fun.
Do you know what else is fun? Risking a little bit of money for a larger payout, and that's exactly what makes betting on Super Bowl overtime and safety props so appealing to bettors.
Let's take a look at the odds that Super Bowl 56 goes into overtime or that a safety is scored in Rams vs. Bengals.
Note: Odds as of writing and via BetMGM
Will Super Bowl 56 Go to Overtime?
- Yes: +1000
- No: -5000
To start, let's break down each of these into implied probabilities.
First, +1000 correlates with a 9.09% implied probabilities, while -5000 is 98.04%.
This means that from a value perspective, you need to believe Rams vs. Bengals has more than a 9.09% chance to go into overtime to warrant a bet on "yes."
Conversely, it also requires more than a 98.04% chance that there is no overtime in order to wager on that side of this prop.
From 2011 through the end of last season, 5.6% of NFL games went to overtime, meaning that percentage does not meet the 9.09% threshold for yes, nor does the opposite (94.4%) hit the break-even mark of 98.04% for no.
Will There Be a Safety In Super Bowl 56?
- Yes: +750
- No: -2000
Just like above, breaking this down into implied probabilities helps us see it more clearly.
Odds of +750 correlate with an 11.75% implied probability, with -2000 translating to 95.24%.
From 2001 through the end of last season, 6.7% of NFL games included safeties, which falls way short of the 11.75% implied probability for a "yes" bet.
Conversely, 93.3% of games not seeing a safety scored means there's no value in betting "no" with its 95.24% implied probability either.
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