2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings for Every Week 1 Starting QB

No position in sports is more important than quarterback.

Quarterbacks touch the ball every single play! An elite QB can drag an average roster deep into the playoffs, but a bad signal caller can doom an otherwise elite roster.

In my NFL Power Rankings, quarterback reigns supreme — by a huge margin. I count QB to be worth over 40% of the entire offensive unit ranking and almost 25% of the overall roster rank. It's just that important.

Consider defending MVP, Josh Allen.

With Allen healthy, the Bills rank in the top eight both offensively and overall in my system, a bona fide Super Bowl contender. Replace him with a league-average starter, though, and the Bills drop to about 20th on offense, a fringe playoff contender at best. Give Buffalo the worst QB in the league and they drop to a bottom-five offense, totally irrelevant to the playoff picture.

That's why QBs get their own column and why we'll check in on these rankings again all season. An incredible 11 NFL teams will start new Opening Day quarterbacks from 2024 — over a third of the league!! — and only two of those 11 teams make the top half of my ranks. This is a league in transition at QB, with any number of changes from this column one year ago.

So which QB would you want right now for one season on a new NFL team, agnostic to contract, surrounding talent, and scheme? That's the question we'll answer today at the league's most important position. These are my 2025 Week 1 quarterback rankings, from 1 to 32.

2025 NFL Quarterback Rankings

Tier 1 — The Unimpeachables

1. Patrick Mahomes (Last Year: 1)

2. Josh Allen (Last Year: 2)

If you're wondering, it took me approximately 0.6 seconds to go ahead and rank Patrick Mahomes No. 1.

This is the seventh straight season Mahomes has led my rankings, and the fact that you'd have to start any other choice at No. 1 by first explaining why it's not Mahomes is proof enough itself.

Mahomes is now 89-23 in the regular season, a 13.5-win lifetime pace, and a ridiculous 27-4 in the playoffs. Or to put it another way: seven seasons as a starter, seven AFC Championship Games. QB wins aren't a stat short term, but long term they absolutely are.

Mahomes has won with bad blocking, poor receivers, bad defense, offensive coordinator contentiousness — none of it matters, he just keeps winning.

And yes, I'm aware Mahomes' regular season numbers have dropped off the last two seasons. If your two down years result in 31 wins and two trips to the Super Bowl with poor blocking and receivers, you're still No. 1 until someone knocks you off the throne.

If Mahomes wasn't quite so invincible, Josh Allen might be a clear No. 1. Even the usual cases against Allen are flimsy now.

Too many mistakes? Allen cut his interceptions to just six last year with an absurdly low 2.8% sack rate, time and again bailing the Bills out when his blocking broke down and creating big plays down the field. Allen had a ridiculous 0.357 EPA per play once he got outside the pocket last season. Defenses that let Allen move are basically accepting death.

Fine but what about the playoffs? First of all, 7-6 is not a bad playoff record, but dig a little deeper. Allen is now responsible for 32 touchdowns with just four interceptions in the playoffs with only two bad games really, a full-season pace of 4400/42/5, an MVP season. He's also been great even when the Bills lose.

Allen has the best EPA per play of any QB with at least four playoff losses since 2000 — but Buffalo's defense ranked the worst in EPA by far in those losses. Allen is making the plays and his defense is letting him down. He ranks No. 1 all-time in total yards per game, touchdowns per game, and touchdown-to-interception ratio in the playoffs.

There are no flaws left. Josh Allen is as good as any quarterback on the planet.

Tier 2 — This Is Not an Insult

3. Joe Burrow (Last Year: 3)

4. Lamar Jackson (Last Year: 7)

It's not an insult to be one of the four best quarterbacks in the world — even if you're also ranked outside the top tier.

Joe Burrow finally put it all together last season and might have won MVP if his team had the wins. He would've deserved it, too. Burrow averaged 36% Win Probability Added per game, tying the best mark for any QB since 2007 — just ahead of '07 Tom Brady and '09 Peyton Manning, for reference.

Burrow doesn't have the elite arm talent of the other top guys, but he gets the ball out super quickly and is the most accurate passer in the league with outstanding touch.

And don't just write that off as Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins either. Those two are studs, but Burrow has consistently had poor receiver depth, bad blocking, a forgettable run game, and lackluster play calling.

If Burrow had been given the Ravens roster his entire career, would he have made the Super Bowl with one of them?

I say yes, and that's why he's still ahead of Lamar Jackson.

I don't need to tell you why Jackson ranks in the top four, so let's get right to why he's only fourth.

The goal of this exercise is to separate player from context as best we can, and Jackson has almost always been put in an incredible position to succeed — with typically elite coaching, defense, special teams, and usually blocking and run game too.  Jackson is a huge part of the success, but he's getting a ton of help.

That's been true in the playoffs too — the help part. Remember that stat about how good Allen has been even in playoff losses? Jackson ranks bottom 10 among QBs since 2000 with -0.13 EPA per play, and that's with a defense that ranks top five in EPA in those losses.

The Bills are losing despite Allen's brilliance. The Ravens are losing because Jackson keeps letting them down.

That wasn't true the last time we saw Jackson in the playoffs, a terrific game spoiled by a Mark Andrews, but even that was marred by two early Jackson turnovers — and the fumbles continue to be a persistent problem.

Jackson has seven fumbles in eight playoff games and an awful 11% sack rate, his 3725/21/15 passing pace nowhere near good enough and a direct reason for his 3-5 playoff record.

Lamar Jackson is absolutely good enough to win playoff games and get that ring. But at some point, he's gonna have to actually do it.

Tier 3 — Good Enough to Win Games on Their Own

5. Justin Herbert (Last Year: 9)

6. Jordan Love (Last Year: 5)

7. Jayden Daniels (Last Year: 26)

I already know what you're thinking — you really think Justin Herbert is a top five NFL quarterback?!!

No, I really don't. I think there are four Super Saiyan QBs and then there's everyone else, and that someone else just has to be No. 5.

The guys in this tier are the three guys I can make a legit case for, and although Justin Herbert is a bit of a boring pick, he's got all the tools and finally appeared to put it all together last season under Jim Harbaugh. Could he still just be hitting his ceiling at age 27?

The other two guys here are a projection after effectively one great year of QB play for each.

The weird thing about Jordan Love is that his one great year has come over the back half of two seasons starting.

Love has been poor both first halves of the season to the point that he has a reputation for only playing well during the annual Toyotathon, but his trajectory makes a lot more sense if you dig in. Love started out poorly, like almost any new starter, then played like an MVP the second half of his debut starter season and into the playoffs.

Then Love started the new NFL season playing on an ice rink in Brazil and was hurt badly enough on Opening Night that many thought his season might be over. It wasn't, but Love struggled to find his footing in his return until finally getting things going again during Toyotathon.

Okay so… Love took a month or two to get going as a starter, had another month of blah play returning from injury, and has otherwise played like an elite MVP-level quarterback? Works for me.

Love has an elite 3% pressure-to-sack rate, but last season his production on the move cratered and those Mahomes-like creative throws did not go well. Matt LaFleur needs to trust his guy and let Love cook.

Jayden Daniels did plenty of cooking as a rookie, but so much of it was running insanely hot in huge moments — on late downs, in fourth quarters and overtime, etc. — so it's really hard to know just how much of that magic is sustainable.

It's fair to be concerned that it's not, especially since so much of Daniels' value is wrapped up in his legs and that makes him risky and volatile, especially with his slight frame.

But on metrics alone, Daniels has a case for clear No. 5 on this list, top five on MVP ballots last season, and maybe even a spot in the next tier up. We'll call this a compromise and see how he runs it back as a sophomore.

Tier 4 — The Litmus Tests

8. Dak Prescott (Last Year: 6)

9. Jalen Hurts (Last Year: 12)

10. Geno Smith (Last Year: 15)

11. C.J. Stroud (Last Year: 8)

The quarterbacks in this tier are litmus tests. They're good-not-great QBs who play to the level of their surroundings. Give them great blocking, good weapons, and nice play calling and these guys can play MVP-level Super Bowl winning ball. But when the situation isn't as pretty around them, litmus test QBs see their play fall off just as quickly.

Dak Prescott is the mascot of the litmus tests, an annual mainstay. He's absolutely a top 10 NFL quarterback, but absolutely not one of those tip-top guys.

Prescott was awful last year playing through injury, but he's never had a losing record in a season without a major injury, and he's one year removed from being a deserving MVP candidate. The 2-5 playoff record is a failure, but that's often the case for guys in this tier when the going gets tough.

That hasn't been the case for Jalen Hurts — or has it?

Hurts is a Super Bowl champion and has played two of the best games of his life in his two Super Bowl appearances, but he hasn't been great in many of his other playoff games. Hurts ranks outside the top 12 QBs in both EPA per play and Success Rate in the playoffs the last four years, despite the two trips to the big one.

To Eagles fans aghast that their guy is ranked outside the top quarter of the league, ask yourself this: if Hurts were really a top-seven QB playing with the best weapons and offense in football with terrific play calling to boot, why isn't the Philadelphia offense just murdering opponents? Instead, the Eagles passing attack was easily the worst, least consistent part of last year's championship team.

Hurts is still terrible unde pressure with a PFF grade under 30 (out of 100) as a passer and far too many Turnover-Worth Plays. His time to throw has ballooned to among the league's worst the last two years as he invites pressure on almost 40% of his snaps, highest of any QB. Hurts ranked just 26th in EPA per play out of the pocket last season and ended up there on 24% of his passes, among the highest in the league.

Translation: Hurts is incredibly lucky he plays behind the best offensive line in the league and throws it A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Litmus tests can win big too when they have a supporting cast as good as Hurts does in Philly.

Geno Smith might be a surprise in the top 10, but only if you haven't been paying attention.

Smith has ranked 9th, 14th, and 9th by PFF grade the last three seasons, despite brutal blocking in Seattle. He now has a .500 or better record in all but one of his five seasons, with 12 game-winning drives the last three years in Seattle, and he's one of the most accurate QBs in the league with a lethal deep ball.

Prediction: Sam Darnold behind that Seattle line this season will show everyone just how good Geno Smith was.

C.J. Stroud disappointed his sophomore season and probably doesn't deserve this ranking quite yet on merit alone after dropping off at nearly everything, but there's still plenty to like. Stroud had zero blocking or run game and was missing his top receivers all season with an offensive coordinator that looked like he'd been found out.

This isn't exactly a make-or-break year for Stroud, but he'll probably move four spots up or down next season.

Tier 5 — The Upside Swings

12. Drake Maye (Last Year: NR)

13. Trevor Lawrence (Last Year: 11)

14. Matthew Stafford (Last Year: 15)

I'm early putting Drake Maye in my top 12, but I'm calling my shot. I think he could end up in the 5-to-7 tier with Herbert, Love, and Daniels by the end of the season.

Maye has all the physical tools like Herbert but plays more loose and aggressive than him, in a good way. He's already a dangerous scrambler and navigated the pocket incredibly as a rookie behind an awful line with no real weapons. Maye was responsible for only 9% of the sacks he took last season, per FTN. What will he do this season with improved line play and a couple new rookie toys to throw to?

It might feel like Trevor Lawrence is a bust, but he's still only 25 years old and just four years into his career.

Lawrence's first season was a lost cause under Urban Mayer, and he went a respectable 9-8 and 8-8 the next two years before stumbling to a disappointing 2-8 record last season playing through injury.

Could Lawrence be this year's Justin Herbert, the talented guy who finally puts it all together to make a mini leap? He finally has a real shot with Liam Coen churning out great QB play.

You almost certainly think Matthew Stafford is ranked too low — I'm seeing him 5th or 6th in many rankings — but I've just never been a big fan. What is it about Stafford that makes everyone in the media remember only his sizzle throws and not all the inconsistency in between?

For a magical four- or five-game stretch each season, Stafford plays like an MVP — and he's had that stretch in the playoffs too. But over a full 17-game season, Stafford just isn't consistent enough. He ranked 42nd in the league under pressure at PFF with an ugly 6.5% Turnover-Worthy Play rate with almost as many TWPs as Big-Time Throws on the season.

Stafford has only two career finishes as a top-eight QB by PFF grade. He finished 21st last season, just one spot ahead of Bryce Young, and he's ranked somewhere between 9th to 21st in 11 different seasons. He still has a career losing record, and only his Super Bowl season saw more than 11 wins.

Add in the mega injury that that leaves Stafford a hit away from retirement at all times, and the juice just isn't worth the squeeze.

Tier 6 — The Former No. 1 Wildcards

15. Baker Mayfield (Last Year: 24)

16. Kyler Murray (Last Year: 10)

17. Caleb Williams (Last Year: 18)

Lincoln Riley sure did alright with this tier of former No. 1 overall draft picks that played college ball at Oklahoma, but the inconsistent playmaking that was good enough in college hasn't led to the mistake-free football that wins at the highest level.

Baker Mayfield has a pretty good case as a top 10 passer after the last two seasons, but let's be careful. Mayfield had one of the best QB situations in the league with outstanding blocking and elite receivers and play calling, so let's see how he does without Tristan Wirfs, Chris Godwin, and Liam Coen to start the season.

I'm not sure there's enough upside at age 30 to be worth the mistakes. Mayfield still has career 6.9% sack and 2.7% interception rates, and his 25% pressure-to-sack ratio was second worst in the NFL last season, despite a quick time to throw.

I might just be ready to be out on Kyler Murray.

I don't remember exactly when it happened, but it was sometime late last season on a game I'm sure I bet the Cardinals on, but watching Kyler scramble around 20 yards behind the line of scrimmage missing wide open receivers he couldn't see over the middle of the field finally broke me.

Murray's size is clearly limiting. He can't access the middle of the field and doesn't perform well under pressure, and his style of play and slight frame have led to 18 missed games the past four seasons, basically a full season.

If he can't stay healthy and might be a gimmick player even when you are out there, Kyler Murray might just be NFL LaMelo Ball.

This ranking is a projection for last year's No. 1 pick, Caleb Williams, who finished bottom five in the NFL in both EPA per play and Success Rate last season. Williams was horrendous on deep balls and ate constant sacks, hurting the team with persistent negative plays, much like he did in college.

Williams has a cannon for an arm and all the impossible improv skills and arm angles, but on last year alone, he should be ranked 10 spots lower. Negative plays in search of a home run are drive killers in the NFL, and Williams needs to learn how to take singles and keep the chains moving. Ben Johnson represents a perfect chance to do just that.

This Caleb Williams ranking will either end up seven spots too high or too low.

Tier 7 — It's the System, Stupid

18. Brock Purdy (Last Year: 19)

19. Jared Goff (Last Year: 20)

20. Aaron Rodgers (Last Year: 4)

21. Bo Nix (Last Year: 29)

22. Tua Tagovailoa (Last Year: 22)

Here's the cold hard truth: if you're a fan of one of these teams, you probably think your guy is ranked too low. If you're any other NFL fan, you get it.

It's the system, stupid.

Kyle Shanahan, Ben Johnson, and Mike McDaniel can make a quarterback look awfully good — like best-in-the-league good by all the fancy advanced metrics. All those weapons, all that motion, the right amount of protection, and these guys can cut up the competition from the pocket when everything's right. But force them off script or put them in bad weather or in a high stakes playoff environment, and it turns south in a hurry.

I'm honestly not sure Brock Purdy still belongs in this group. He was low-key quite impressive with his playmaking last year even when his blocking and weapons disappeared. Still, Purdy has one stat consistent with the others in this tier — an elite 0.268 EPA per play with a clean pocket, basically MVP football, but a huge drop outside the pocket, the exact reverse of what stars like Allen, Mahomes, and Jackson do.

I'm still not buying Jared Goff as anything but a system guy that's lucked into playing for Sean McVay or Ben Johnson for much of his career. Without either guy in his corner, Goff is 3-17-1 lifetime. Even in last year's terrific season for an elite Lions squad, Goff ranked just 16th in PFF grade, and he's finished 15th or worse in seven of nine seasons.

Elite coaching has made Goff look good, but he played in the league's No. 1 QB situation last season. Now he loses stud C Frank Ragnow along with Ben Johnson, and his coaches continue to treat him with kid gloves in outdoors games or in the playoffs. Listen, there's a reason McVay cashed this guy in for a QB with upside in Matthew Stafford — and immediately won the Super Bowl.

It might just be over for Aaron Rodgers, but with his fear of avoiding turnovers, maybe Rodgers could still play successful game manager in the right system. But is even that worth the mess of all the off-field stuff at this point? I just couldn't bring myself to rank Rodgers outside the top 20, or behind Bo Nix.

Two things can be true at once — Bo Nix had an excellent rookie season playing mostly mistake-free football for a playoff team and proving his floor as an NFL quarterback, but he also showed no real upside just as his scouting report suggested coming in.

Sean Payton thinks he has a magic formula to find his new late-career Drew Brees, but Nix's accuracy falls under pressure, and he lacks arm talent and zip to match wits with the top QBs around the league. He's also playing gimmick football, much like he did in college, with 22% of his throws behind the line of scrimmage and 24% of his dropbacks at least partly responsible for pressure, highest of any starter despite a super quick time to throw.

Last year showed you can win with Bo Nix, but I see little reason to believe you can win because of him.

Did somebody say gimmick?

Tua Tagovailoa ranked first by a ridiculous amount in time to throw, relying heavily on pre-snap reads and precious few post-snap decisions, and he ranked dead last in both completed and intended air yards per pass. Over a quarter of his throws were behind the line of scrimmage, tops in the league, and despite all that, Tagovailoa ranked just 28th in PFF grade.

Tagovailoa can't play off script, can't play in weather or against top defenses, and remains one hit away from retirement at all times. Pass.

Derek Carr is the quarterback everyone thinks Kirk Cousins is. He is NFL Goldilocks. He's fine.

Tier 8 — We Just Don't Know Yet

23. J.J. McCarthy (Last Year: NR)

24. Cam Ward (Last Year: NR)

25. Michael Penix (NR)

Heading into this weekend, this trio of quarterbacks had played in five NFL games combined, including preseason. If you think you know what to expect from any one of these three, you're lying to yourself.

I'm simply ranking this trio in the order I ranked them in the draft.

J.J. McCarthy is super young and totally unproven — he wasn't even asked to do much at Michigan — but the skills are there for a pro-style, familiar looking game manager, and he's stepping into an incredible situation with great play calling, blocking, and surrounding talent.

Cam Ward tested the draft waters last year and was graded a Day 3 pick before this year's leap. His arm talent pops but he has poor mechanics at times and hunts big plays a bit often. I've seen Ward compared to a taller, slower Kyler Murray, and I wonder if he might be a poor man's Caleb Williams.

The one guy you might expect higher up the ranks is Michael Penix after an impressive three games to end the season, but that's a tiny sample and it came against three bad defenses.

Penix had 10 Big-Time Throws in those three starts, an awesome 9.0% of his passes, and he might already be one of the best flamethrowers outside the numbers. But he's also incredibly inaccurate, and that could lead to an all-or-nothing style that's tough to keep the offense on the field. Add in the advanced age and significant injury history, and Penix still needs to prove he's an NFL quarterback.

Tier 9 — Unfortunately, We Probably Do Know

26. Anthony Richardson (Last Year: 17)

27. Russell Wilson (Last Year: 23)

28. Sam Darnold (Last Year: 25)

29. Bryce Young (Last Year: 27)

30. Justin Fields (Last Year: NR)

With the trio above who've mostly yet to step onto a field, we don't even know yet if they are NFL quarterbacks. With this group, we may unfortunately already have our answer.

Anthony Richardson is not a real quarterback yet with his ridiculous play style — 12 intended air yards per target, almost three more than any other QB, with a horrendous 48% completion rate and zero accuracy, not to mention his inability to stay healthy and on a football field. Richardson ranks first here because of his Daunte Culpepper upside, but he might just belong in the bottom tier until proven otherwise.

Russell Wilson still has the prettiest deep ball in the league but makes too many other bad plays to be worth it. With his size and health profile at age 37, Wilson is little more than a placeholder for Jaxson Dart at this stage of his career.

It's admittedly pretty harsh dropping Sam Darnold from last year's rank to now after what looked like a great season, but the underlying metrics were never sold anyway.

Darnold led the league in Turnover-Worthy Plays and ranked 32nd in EPA per play outside of pocket. He still holds the ball far too long and is awful under pressure, and even his improved sack and interception rates last season were still poor.

This is probably pre-penalyzing Darnold for how bad Seattle's ugly offensive line is going to make him look, but it's gonna be bad.

Bryce Young is a reminder not to confuse improved for good.

There's no question Young improved after returning from the bench last season, and he was downright good the final three games, but two years of data still give plenty of reason for pause. Even with last year's improvement, Young's numbers were abysmal — 5.8 yards per attempt, 2.9% touchdown rate, 9.1% sack rate, and 38% Success Rate.

Maybe he'll continue his progression under year two with Dave Canales, but need to see him do it more before trusting him.

We joke about Lamar Jackson being a RB not a QB, but that's actually Justin Fields. He's an electric runner with great out of pocket results mostly from scrambling, but keep Fields contained and he's mostly useless as a passer.

Fields has never finished a season with a top-20 PFF grade in four years, and he makes his team worse by holding the ball way too long and eating constant sacks, almost once every eight dropbacks. But at least he's fun to watch run!

Tier 10 — Release The Tank

31. Dillon Gabriel (Last Year: NR)

32. Tyler Shough (NR)

Pick any one of the eight options between these rosters and they all belong down here at the bottom of the rankings.

These are the guys I think these teams prefer to play the most QB this season, because they have one thing in common — they fit the Bo Nix mold of eliminating mistakes.

Dillon Gabriel had an 11% pressure-to-sack rate in college and a 1.3% Turnover-Worthy Play rate, both elite metrics. He's very much Nix-lite, and that's not a compliment, but it means he doesn't make anywhere near the mistakes Joe Flacco does at this point of his career. For what it's worthy, Shedeur Sanders also has an excellent TWP rate but gets sacked a bunch with a P2S more than double Gabriel's.

Tyler Shough is a similar profile, with low P2S and TWP rates but low on all the good stuff too. He didn't even have good EPA in college and has an absurdly long injury history, and Shough is also nearly 26 so the entire developmental curve is likely gone.

The best thing either of these guys could do for their teams this season is lose enough games so their franchises can draft a real NFL QB next spring.

5 Key Takeaways for Bettors

1. The times they are a-changin'.

Three years ago Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, and Russell Wilson were top five in my QB rankings, with Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins, and Derek Carr all in the top 15. All those guys are either retired now or should be, while Josh Allen (No. 7) and Lamar Jackson (No. 9) have since won MVPs and risen quickly in the ranks.

All of that leaves a serious void at the top of the QB rankings, starting at that No. 5 spot.

Is it just a veteran next man up like Herbert, Hurts, or Prescott? Will young stars like Daniels or Stroud continue their ascendance? Could it be a young unproven like Williams, Ward, McCarthy, or Penix? The right answer could be your sleeper Super Bowl ticket.

2. The AFC looks like an absolute bloodbath once again.

The AFC has the entire top five QBs, and in case you forgot, only seven teams make the playoffs in each conference.

That's terrible news for your favorite AFC sleeper — be it the up-and-coming Patriots, the Tua Tagovailoa reclamation project offense, or otherwise — but be especially cautious with Bo Nix and the popular sleeper Broncos. Nix is by far the worst quarterback in the division, with the other three guys all ranked in my top 10, and that's a tough uphill battle for six games heading into the new season.

Of course, on the other hand…

3. The NFC remains wide open and ripe for a surprise hot-hand QB to make a run.

Who's the best quarterback in the NFC? You can make a quality case for Love, Daniels, Prescott, Hurts, or Stafford, but the truth is that it could be any one of those five, Mayfield, Murray, even one of the surprise young guys by the end of the season.

MVP is a team award — it often goes to the quarterback of the 1-seed. The AFC quarterbacks all have to cannibalize and beat up on each other all season, but the NFC is wide open for a 14-3 run to the top. A QB MVP ticket might be a great way to bet on your favorite NFC sleeper.

4. Bet the long tails in either direction on wildcard QBs with high upside and unknown.

With the quarterback field so wide open after the top four, any big QB breakout can turn a bad team into a playoff contender in a hurry. Could Drake Maye or Trevor Lawrence take a step into the top 10? Can Mayfield or Murray play consistently enough to get there? Might Caleb Williams, J.J. McCarthy, or Michael Penix come out guns blazing with a ton of weapons and great play calling?

It sounds crazy right now, but one of those wildcard QB could even end up in the MVP race. If there's a sleeper QB you like, the path is open to invest in MVP and team futures tickets.

5. Who is this year's Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, or Geno Smith?

There's a wild trend lately where a veteran retread QB left on the scrap heap turns into a quality starter for an entirely new team after all the rest of us have written them off entirely.

Geno Smith ranked dead last in my Opening Day ranks in 2022; now he's in my top 10. Baker Mayfield was one spot higher at No. 31 in 2023. He's in the top 15 now and would be in many top 10s. Last year it was Sam Darnold surprising off the scrap heap.

So who is this year's version?

Good luck picking someone. The entire reason these guys are so shocking is because we all had our minds made up before their turnarounds. Could Daniel Jones step in for Richardson and become a competent QB in Indianapolis? Could Jameis Winston revive his career with an elite WR and great play caller in New York? Maybe this year's Darnold is simply Sam Darnold again, proving it a second straight year in a new location.

I wonder if this year's version might end up being Bryce Young. Young's own team left him for dead in the middle of last season, but he sure did look improved to end the season, and confidence goes a long ways for a young quarterback. With Mayfield erratic and Penix unproven, is there a world where Bryce Young is the best QB in his division this season? It's not as crazy as it sounds.

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