Super Bowl 55 Same Game Parlay Strategy: Betting Picks & Tips to Build a Winning Card
David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Chiefs’ Mecole Hardman
Parlays are terrible bets.
That's … probably not the best introduction for an article about parlays, but I wanted to get it out of the way early. Mathematically speaking, parlays never pay out what the true odds should be.
Nearly every parlay bet will lose money over the long term …
… but, come on! It's the Super Bowl! People want to bet the game for a little extra action and to enjoy it.
I am not here to deny the people what they want. Instead, I want to help you increase your odds of winning.
The Basics: What Are Same Game Parlays?
Same game parlays are relatively new to the betting landscape. As the name implies, you are parlaying events from the same game. You aren't parlaying the result of the Super Bowl with another outcome from a different sport. Rather, you are just picking sides, totals and props (such as player yardage totals or touchdown scorers) that all must happen to win your bet.
When you are building your parlay, you should not simply pick props you think have a good chance of winning. Your parlay should tell a story of how the game plays out. The easiest way to do this is to work backwards.
Start with a scenario for how a game plays out and then determine what has to happen to get to that result. For example, let's say you think the game will turn into a shootout, but you aren't sure which team will win. You may end up with this parlay from FanDuel:
- Game Total Over 55.5 points
- Tom Brady Over 296.5 passing yards
- Patrick Mahomes Alt Over 350 yards
- Tyreek Hill Alt Over 125 receiving yards
- Travis Kelce Alt Over 100 receiving yards
- Chris Godwin Alt Over 100 receiving yards
- Chris Godwin to score a touchdown
- Tyreek Hill to score a touchdown
Here, you have told the story of a shootout game that makes sense and has a payout of over 80 to 1. Note how each part of the parlay correlates in some way with others.
It's not rocket science. If Mahomes has 350 or more yards, then it's pretty likely that Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are going to have a lot of yards too. If Hill amasses 125 yards, then it's pretty likely he will find the end zone as well. If Godwin logs 100 receiving yards, then there's a good chance that he snares a touchdown; and so on.
This parlay is all based off a story of a shootout. If you believe the game could be more of a defensive battle, then your parlay will look drastically different. The key is to make sure it is correlated. Here are a few tips to help no matter how you approach this bet.
Tips for Building Same Game Parlays
1. Distribute Passing Yardage
No matter how many yards you think either Brady or Mahomes will throw for, in your mind you should be distributing those yards to the various receivers at each quarterback's disposal. Then, add selections to your parlay that correlate quarterback and wide receiver performances.
2. Use Alternate Lines With Higher Payouts
If your parlay is based off of the Bucs beating the Chiefs by a lot, then don't settle for the Tampa Bay moneyline. Instead use an alternate line of Bucs -6.5 or Bucs -9.5 depending on your scenario.
If you think an unlikely event is going to happen, you might as well get the full value for it. Swing for the fences.
3. Take Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce to Score
Either Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce has scored in every Chiefs game this year. Unless you think the Bucs defense totally shuts down the Kansas City offense, adding either of the two Chiefs playmakers to your parlay is like the free space in bingo.
4. Look For Multiple Props That Are Correlated or Similar
The best example of this is a Tom Brady QB sneak for a touchdown. Brady is +380 to score a touchdown, but his rushing prop is 0.5 yards with +146 on the Over. Just be aware that kneel downs aren't your friend — as we found out last season.
Another example is taking a team's D/ST (defense or special teams) to score a touchdown and pairing it with a punt or kick returner. Mecole Hardman is +200 to score and the Chiefs D/ST is +500, but parlaying both bets pays out over 18 to 1 — and all it takes is a single Hardman punt return touchdown to get to the window.
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