Super Bowl Betting Trends & Trivia: Favorites vs. Underdogs, All-Time ATS Results, More

Super Bowl Betting Trends & Trivia: Favorites vs. Underdogs, All-Time ATS Results, More article feature image
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Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images.

The stage is set. Following their respective conference championships, it’ll be the Buccaneers and Chiefs facing off in Super Bowl 55.

Now it’s time to ask some questions.

Which teams tend to cover the spread in the Super Bowl? Do favorites outperform underdogs? Do overs outperform unders? Perhaps most pertinent to this matchup: Does quarterback age play a role in determining betting outcomes?

Below you’ll find the trends that answer those questions, as well as some Super Bowl betting trivia, and the full list of all-time Super Bowl betting results dating back to the very first matchup between the Chiefs and Packers (click here to jump to the list).

Let’s get into it.

Note: You’ll notice some trends — the more basic ones — refer to the all-time sample, whereas others, especially those relating to betting-market activity, are only based on the results in our Action Labs database (which dates back to the 2003 season).

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Super Bowl Betting Trends

Favorites vs. Underdogs

Favorites have gone 28-24-2 (53.8%) all-time against the spread, and 36-18 straight-up. They’re only 10-7 straight-up in our Action Labs database (since SB XXXVIII), though, meaning moneyline underdogs have won 4.2 units over that span.

Overs vs. Unders

Overs have gone 27-26 (50.9%) all-time.

AFC vs. NFC

NFC teams have gone 27-25 (51.9%) against the spread all-time.

Popular vs. Unpopular Sides

Popular sides (teams getting more than 50% of spread tickets) have gone 10-7 (58.8%) against the spread in our Action Labs database.

nfl playoff picture-bracket-scenarios-predictions-standings-afc-nfc-week16-2020
Nic Antaya/Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Evans, Tom Brady

Line Movement

Teams toward which the line moves (ex. -1 to -1.5, +6 to +5.5) have gone 10-5 (66.7%) against the spread in our Action Labs database.

Better vs. Worse Win Percentages

Teams with worse win percentages (including playoffs) have gone 13-1 (92.9%) against the spread in our Action Labs database.

Better vs. Worse ATS Percentages

Teams with worse against-the-spread win percentages (including playoffs) have gone 9-7 (56.3%) against the spread in our Action Labs database.

Older QBs vs. Younger QBs

Older starting quarterbacks have gone 9-8 (52.9%) against the spread in our Action Labs database.

Super Bowl Betting Trivia

Largest spread in a Super Bowl …

-18 (Twice: Colts over Jets in SB III, lost outright, 16-7. 49ers over Chargers in SB XXIX, won and covered, 49-26.)

Highest total in a Super Bowl …

57 (Patriots defeated Falcons, 34-28, in SB LI.)

Lowest total in a Super Bowl …

33 (Three times: Dolphins defeated Vikings, 14-7, in SB VII. Steelers defeated Vikings, 24-7, in SB VIII. Steelers defeated Cowboys, 16-6, in SB IX.)

Biggest upset in a Super Bowl (by point spread) …

+18: Jets defeated Colts in SB III.

Getty Images. Pictured: Joe Namath in Super Bowl III

Team with most Super Bowl ATS wins …

Steelers (5)

Team with most Super Bowl ATS losses …

Patriots (6)

Number of Super Bowls to end in a push …

2 (Packers def. Patriots, 35-21, in SB XXXI, Rams def. Titans, 23-16, in SB XXXIV.)

Tom Brady’s ATS Record in Super Bowls …

4-5. This will be just the second time Brady is an underdog in the Super Bowl. The other time? The Patriots beat the Rams as a 14-point underdog in Super Bowl XXXVI.

All-Time Spread and Over/Under Results

Matchup (O/U) Score Result
LIV: Chiefs -2 vs. 49ers (53) KC, 31-20 Favorite/Under
LIII: Patriots -2.5 vs. Rams (56) NE, 13-3 Favorite/Under
LII: Patriots -4 vs. Eagles (49.5) PHI, 41-33 Underdog/Over
LI: Patriots -3 vs. Falcons (57) NE, 34-28 Favorite/Over
50: Panthers -5 vs. Broncos (43.5) DEN, 24-10 Underdog/Under
XLIX: Seahawks -1 vs. Patriots (47.5) NE, 28-24 Underdog/Over
XLVIII: Broncos -2.5 vs. Seahawks (47.5) SEA, 43-8 Underdog/Over
XLVII: 49ers -4.5 vs. Ravens (47.5) BAL, 34-31 Underdog/Over
XLVI: Patriots -3 vs. Giants (53) NYG, 21-17 Underdog/Under
XLV: Packers -3 vs. Steelers (45) GB, 31-25 Favorite/Over
XLIII: Steelers -6.5 vs. Cardinals (46.5) PIT, 27-23 Underdog/Over
XLIV: Colts -4.5 vs. Saints (56.5) NO, 31-17 Underdog/Under
XLII: Patriots -12.5 vs. Giants (54.5) NYG, 17-14 Underdog/Under
XLI: Colts -6 vs. Bears (47) IND, 29-17 Favorite/Under
XL: Steelers -4 vs. Seahawks (47) PIT, 21-10 Favorite/Under
XXXIX: Patriots -7 vs. Eagles (47) NE, 24-21 Underdog/Under
XXXVIII: Patriots -7 vs. Panthers (38) NE, 32-29 Underdog/Over
XXXVII: Raiders -3.5 vs. Buccaneers (44) TB, 48-21 Underdog/Over
XXXVI: Rams -14 vs. Patriots (53) NE, 20-17 Underdog/Under
XXXV: Ravens -3 vs. Giants (33.5) BAL, 34-7 Favorite/Over
XXXIV: Rams -7 vs. Titans (48) STL, 23-16 Push/Under
XXXIII: Broncos -7.5 vs. Falcons (51.5) DEN, 34-19 Favorite/Over
XXXII: Packers -11.5 vs. Broncos (49) DEN, 31-24 Underdog/Over
XXXI: Packers -14 vs. Patriots (49) GB, 35-21 Push/Over
XXX: Cowboys -13.5 vs. Steelers (52) DAL, 27-17 Underdog/Under
XXIX: 49ers -18 vs. Chargers (54) SF, 49-26 Favorite/Over
XXVIII: Cowboys -10.5 vs. Bills (50.5) DAL, 30-13 Favorite/Under
XXVII: Cowboys -6 vs. Bills (45) DAL, 52-17 Favorite/Over
XXVI: Redskins -7.5 vs. Bills (49) WAS, 37-24 Favorite/Over
XXV: Bills -6.5 vs. Giants (40.5) NYG, 20-19 Underdog/Under
XXIV: 49ers -11.5 vs. Broncos (47) SF, 55-10 Favorite/Over
XXIII: 49ers -7 vs. Bengals (47.5) SF, 20-16 Underdog/Under
XXII: Broncos -3 vs. Redskins (47) WAS, 42-10 Underdog/Over
XXI: Giants -8.5 vs. Broncos (40.5) NYG, 39-20 Favorite/Over
XX: Bears -10 vs. Patriots (37) CHI, 46-10 Favorite/Over
XIX: 49ers -3.5 vs. Dolphins (53.5) SF, 38-16 Favorite/Over
XVIII: Redskins -3 vs. Raiders (48) LAR, 38-9 Underdog/Under
XVII: Dolphins -3 vs. Redskins (36.5) WAS, 27-17 Underdog/Over
XVI: 49ers -1 vs. Bengals (48) SF, 26-21 Favorite/Under
XV: Eagles -3 vs. Raiders (37.5) OAK, 27-10 Underdog/Under
XIV: Steelers -10.5 vs. Rams (36) PIT, 31-19 Favorite/Over
XIII: Steelers -3.5 vs. Cowboys (37) PIT, 35-31 Favorite/Over
XII: Cowboys -6 vs. Broncos (39) DAL, 27-10 Favorite/Under
XI: Raiders -4 vs. Vikings (38) OAK, 32-14 Favorite/Over
X: Steelers -7 vs. Cowboys (36) PIT, 21-17 Underdog/Over
IX: Steelers -3 vs. Vikings (33) PIT, 16-6 Favorite/Under
VIII: Dolphins -6.5 vs. Vikings (33) MIA, 24-7 Favorite/Under
VII: Dolphins -1 vs. Redskins (33) MIA, 14-7 Favorite/Under
VI: Cowboys -6 vs. Dolphins (34) DAL, 24-3 Favorite/Under
V: Colts -2.5 vs. Cowboys (36) BAL, 16-13 Favorite/Under
IV: Vikings -12 vs. Chiefs (39) KC, 23-7 Underdog/Under
III: Colts -18 vs. Jets (40) NYJ, 16-7 Underdog/Under
II: Packers -13.5 vs. Raiders (43) GB, 33-14 Favorite/Over
I: Packers -14 vs. Chiefs (N/A) GB, 35-10 Favorite

Table data via SportsOddsHistory.

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