2022 Super Bowl Props, Odds for Bengals vs. Rams: What Is an Octopus Bet in Football?
Ronald Martinez/Getty Images. Pictured: Odell Beckham Jr.
- What is an octupus bet in the NFL?
- It's a novelty prop offered by DraftKings for the 2022 Super Bowl between the Rams and Bengals.
- Read more about it below.
DraftKings released on Tuesday a novelty prop bet under the title of “Will There Be an Octopus?”
No, it’s not some sort of distorted philosophical pontification. Nor is it a joke. An octopus is a real football stat invented in 2019 by a writer from Sports Illustrated.
It occurs when the same player that scores a touchdown scores the ensuing two-point conversion.
There have only been 169 recorded instances in NFL history. The two-point conversion was introduced to the league in 1994.
Six players have done so this season: Michael Pittman Jr., Danny Amendola, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Dalton Schultz, Mark Andrew and Quintez Cephus.
Todd Gurley leads all players in NFL history with four octopi during his tenure with the Rams. Hall of Fame wide receiver Randy Moss is second-best all-time with three octopi.
Will There Be An Octopus during Bengals vs. Rams?
Odds are as of Tuesday and are according to DraftKings.
- Yes: +1400
- No: -2500
Betting odds of +1400 imply a probability of 6.67%. That’s the break-even point — if you believe that there’s better than a 6.67% chance that an octopus will take place, then this bet offers value.
There have been roughly 7,500 NFL games since the two-point conversion was implemented in 1994. With 168 recorded octopi — each occurring in different games — that means the raw odds of it taking place are around 2.25%.
If you’re adamant it won’t happen, you’ll get some betting edge for your money, but you’ll need to risk a decent chunk of change to extract any of that value. Odds of -2500 imply a probability of about 96.15%. The probability that an octopus doesn’t occur is around 97.75%, which gives a “no” wager a roughly 1-2% betting edge.
A bet of $100 on “yes” would net you a profit of $1,400. A $100 wager on “no” nets $4.