Friday NHL Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions for Coyotes vs. Golden Knights: Total Providing Plenty of Value (April 9)

The surging Arizona Coyotes will continue their playoff push with a trip to T-Mobile Arena to take on the Vegas Golden Knights on Friday night.

Arizona has won six of its last eight games, but will need to find a way to win in a place that has been a house of horrors for the club.

On the other side, Vegas is 14-4-2 at home this season and will look to keep pace with Colorado for first place in the West Division.

Vegas Golden Knights

Certainly even with the limited capacity crowds, games at The Fortress seem to have some extra energy and atmosphere. This is a very fun Vegas team to watch, as they continue to play a high-event, aggressive style of hockey. Defensemen are given free reign to jump into the attack off the rush, and when Vegas has the puck in the offensive zone the defensemen are aggressive in trying to keep plays alive on the wall.

Their aggressive style continues to create a ton of chances, as Vegas leads the NHL with an average of 2.7 expected goals for per 60 minutes, but that high-risk style has led to a leaky defense that is allowing 2.46 xGA/60.

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Looking at a smaller sample size, Vegas has allowed 2.86 xGA/60 over its last 12 games, good for second-most over that span. The Knights have still gotten the better of the play overall, skating to an xGF/60 of 3.25 for a combined xGF% of 53.19.

The Golden Knights style of play perfectly suits Vegas as a city, and fans certainly are in for a fun time when they attend their games. It also helps when you have the goaltending tandem of Marc-Andre Fleury and Robin Lehner, who have both been stellar this season.  I think that we will likely see Robin Lehner get the start tomorrow night, and Marc-Andre Fleury on Sunday. Lehner has been great since his return from concussion, with a .946 save percentage in 5 games over that span.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.

Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.

xG numbers cited from Evolving Hockey.

Arizona Coyotes

The Coyotes 6-2 record over the last 8 has pulled them into fourth in the West division, good for the final playoff spot. St. Louis sit three points back, with one game in hand plus a miserable schedule, and San Jose are five points back with two games in hand.

It will be an entertaining playoff race down the stretch, and Arizona has certainly played some more exciting games than we're used to seeing from since during the tenure of defensive-minded coach Rick Tocchet.

The Coyotes have scored 32 goals over the eight-game span, and will look to continue the strong offensive output against a Vegas team that has given up a lot of chances. The Coyotes are likely due for a little regression, as they have overachieved by a fair bit compared to their xGF/60 of 2.31 over those eight games, which is still good for a strong placement league-wide (12th) over that timeframe.

The Coyotes will likely go with Adin Hill again in net, as Darcy Kuemper and Antti Raanta are both still on the IR. Hill sits right at the league-average on the year with a save percentage of .909, and a goals saved above expected rating of -1.3.

Coyotes vs. Golden Knights Best Bet

While I do not see much value with the Vegas moneyline at -240, I do believe the Knights will bounce back from scoring one goal vs St. Louis on Wednesday. That single goal was -4.52 below their expected goals rating for the game, and given a similar effort they should likely put together a good total off of Adin Hill and the Coyotes.

As outlined, Vegas have been giving up large totals of chances against over the last month as well. I think that there is a good chance Arizona can keep up their recent offensive play in this one, and I think that there is good value in the taking the total over 5.5 goals as my top selection.

Pick: Over 5.5