Lightning vs. Hurricanes Odds, Series Predictions & Game 1 Preview: Can Tampa Continue Title Defense? (Sunday, May 30)

Lightning vs. Hurricanes Odds

We could see this matchup coming.

In our Stanley Cup Playoff Preview Podcast, I talked about how these two teams were the Jennifer Lawrence and Margot Robbie of the NHL. Let me explain.

The Tampa Bay Lightning have been worth watching for a long time, getting kudos and awards soon after their core had been put together. Like Lawrence, you could watch the Lightning in anything and it was probably going to be a notable performance.

This edition of the Lightning had their trip to the 2015 Stanley Cup Final, comparable to Lawrence’s award-winning role in Silver Linings Playbook. There was a pair of Conference Final appearances after that, akin to Lawrence in American Hustle or The Hunger Games, along with a few Red Sparrow-level disappointments, like when they were swept by the Blue Jackets in the first round.

The Lightning eventually added their big trophy last season, but when it comes to hockey’s analytics community, there’s a new head-turner on the scene.

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The NHL’s metrics-heads (like myself) look at the Carolina Hurricanes like a pubescent teen looks at Margot Robbie. While the Lightning were winning the Stanley Cup last season, we were busy wondering about the Canes like they were stealing scenes in The Wolf of Wall Street or The Big Short. Not just a pretty face, the Hurricanes have surged their way to the Central Division title, proving as award-worthy as Robbie in I, Tonya.

Straight out of Central Casting, these two teams now vie for the role of Central Division representatives in the Stanley Cup Playoffs Semifinals.

Tale of the Tape

While many make the case that the series between the Golden Knights and Avalanche is the second round’s top tier matchup, I believe the Lightning and Hurricanes are two of the league’s top-three teams. So with that in mind, it won’t come as a surprise that when looking at how their regular-season metrics matchup, this series is as much (if not more) of a coin-flip as the TB -130/CAR +110 series price indicates.

There’s not that much between these two teams, as evidenced in their nearly identical Expected Goal Share. The Lightning did a little more with their fewer even-strength High-Danger Chances, while the Hurricanes had a better efficiency on the power play.

However, the truth is that these numbers don’t mean all that much.

As you may have heard, the Lightning were without Nikita Kucherov for the entire regular season. But lucky for them, he just so happened to be ready for the first game of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, and subsequently has led the world in playoff points with 11. Steven Stamkos had three goals in the first round and missed a good chunk of the season as well. These two missing pieces have been widely covered, but I’d make the case that the Canes' numbers aren’t nearly what they could have been considering they were rarely at full-roster this season as well with just two players playing all 56 games.

With Kucherov and Stamkos in for the Lightning, I’d expect their power play to click at a rate closer to the Canes' will, but I’d rather have the Hurricanes volume of even-strength scoring opportunities.

The most intriguing stat line for me is the one at the bottom of the above table. Andrei Vasilevskiy is widely regarded as one of best goaltenders in the NHL, and while he had a strong season, the Hurricanes found their own bolt of energy in Alex Nedeljkovic as he actually led the NHL in Goals Against Average (1.90) and Save Percentage (.932) among qualifying goaltenders.

As for the head-to-head matchups during the season, of course these evenly-rated teams split their eight matchups. And to no one's surprise, the Expected Goal Share at even-strength was almost split exactly down the middle with Carolina 50.04% and Tampa 49.96%.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is a predictive statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as shooting luck or outstanding goaltending.

Simply put, an expected goals rate (xGF%) above 50% is considered good because it means a team is creating the majority of the scoring chances. Anything below 50% is usually a sign that a team is struggling to control play.

xG numbers and advanced stats cited from Evolving Hockey, MoneyPuck and Natural Stat Trick.

How the Lightning & Hurricanes Got Here

The Lightning got Stamkos and Kucherov back for Game 1 against the in-state rival Panthers, and the hockey world reacted like paparazzi on the red carpet of a movie premiere. Kucherov scored twice and the power play won Tampa the game, going 3-for-4 in a 5-4 come-from-behind win.

You could make the case that the Lightning’s lethal man-advantage was the difference for them in a series in which they scored eight goals on 20 opportunities, especially considering they won three of the first four games despite being the second-best team at creating even-strength offence. The Panthers earned 2.01 Expected Goals during 5-on-5 play in those first four games compared to the Lightning’s 1.43.

For the Lightning, it helped that they converted an insane eight of their 23 High-Danger Chances at even-strength. That rate, along with a 40% powerplay, is literally unbeatable. Things, however, got dicier once the Panthers turned to a third goaltender — 20-year old Spencer Knight — sending the series to a sixth game.

Meanwhile, unlike Tampa, Carolina had its hands full with an opponent’s goaltender. Going into the series against the Predators, the Hurricanes had to know all about Juuse Saros. Had Saros not started so slowly, he might be the front-runner for the Vezina Trophy as the league’s best goaltender this season.

While the series had two of the league’s best ‘tenders this season, it was the respective offenses that showed through with four of the six games cruising over the total. The series finished with four straight overtime games, and that could have easily been five had Nedeljkovic not starred in Game 2. That one might have been the pivotal game as the Predators and Hurricanes split the sudden death finishes.

Saros and Nedeljkovic played near league-average (0.01 GSAA and 0.28 GSAA respectively), which is more than we can say for the Panthers duo of Sergei Bobrovsky (-5.0 GSAA) and Chris Driedger (-3.08 GSAA) when facing the Lightning.

Game 1 Betting Analysis & Pick

Like Margot Robbie, the next step for the Hurricanes is bringing in the big award. It’s no longer an honor just to be nominated. Meanwhile, the Jennifer Lawrence-like Lightning are wondering what it takes to get back in the good graces of the influencers.

There was nothing statistically significant in the Hurricanes' special teams against the Predators. The power play (21.1%) and penalty kill (88.5%) performed at a rate commensurate with the Canes' regular-season stats.

The Lightning’s 40% power play efficiency is certainly an outlier, as they are coming from a series against the league’s 18th-best penalty kill to the third-best, and from a really shaky goaltending situation in Florida to the NHL’s statistical leader in the traditional categories. Meanwhile, the Canes' sneaky-good, second-ranked 25.6% power play will match up against the Lightning penalty kill that was bitten by the Panthers six times in the first five games of the first round.

My “Let’s Do That Hockey” model, as heard on THE WINDOW: Sports Betting Podcast, makes the Hurricanes the slightest of favorites on neutral ice at -104. With a slight consideration for home-ice advantage, my fair Game 1 price is CAR -115/TB +115. And with the Hurricanes earning Game 7 at home, a fair series price isn’t that much different at CAR -112/TB +112.

It’s easy to get caught in the glitz and glamour of the Lightning’s two-top scorers adding to their value this postseason, but four of the six combined goals from Kucherov and Stamkos against Florida came on the power play, and a fifth bounced off a Panthers’ skate on a 2-on-1. What Tampa does 5-on-5 will matter most in a series where the Hurricanes stingy penalty kill can neutralize Tampa’s most terrifying weapon.

With the market opening the Hurricanes as high as +120 to win the series and -110 for Game 1, that’s good enough for me to make a play on the Canes in both markets. Barring a massive change in pricing, I’ll likely be backing the Hurricanes in every game of the series, given that they’ll be around -110 at home and plus-money on the road, with the expectation of a long series that may likely leave us with the Hurricanes +120 in a decisive Game 7 of what will be the best series of round two — an Oscar-worthy drama of the highest order.

Game 1 Pick: Hurricanes (-110 or better)
Series Picks:Hurricanes (+110 or better) / Series to go seven games (+190) / Hurricanes in seven (+400)