Dortmund vs. Frankfurt Odds
| Dortmund Odds | -250 |
| Frankfurt Odds | +550 |
| Draw | +450 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-110 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings. | |
With roughly eight matches left in the 2020-21 Bundesliga season, Borussia Dortmund appeared to be on the verge of missing the Champions League. They sat as low as seventh in the table at one point, but a late surge launched them back into European showcase tournament.
Dortmund's charge came at the expense of Eintracht Frankfurt, whose late season collapse cost them a place in the competition and send them to the Europa League instead.
Frankfurt has looked out of sorts in its preseason friendlies and without striker Andre Silva — now at RB Leipzig — the club doesn't have the firepower to stick with Marco Rose's men. Dortmund should be able to excel at home and begin their Bundesliga campaign with a victory.
Resilient Dortmund Chasing Fast Bundesliga Start
The 2020-21 season was one of turmoil for the Black and Yellow after they fired manager Lucien Favre early in the season, then turned to caretaker manager Edin Terzić.
Dortmund ran really cold at both ends of the pitch, plus they dealt with injury issues across the squad. Their expected-goal numbers were fine most of the year, though, and they have the best young pure striker in the world in Erling Haaland. Water eventually found its level, with Dortmund winning its final six league matches and lifting the DFB-Pokal in a dominant win against Leipzig.
The Black and Yellow defense made plenty of mistakes last year, but poor goalkeeping play from Roman Burki contributed to conceding 46 goals from 40.6 xGA during the season. They've since upgraded at goalkeeper, with the addition of Gregor Kobel from Stuttgart. Rose is notorious for his excellence on set pieces at both ends of the pitch, which should come as a big upgrade on the defensive side.
Overall, I'm really bullish on them, especially in the Champions League where they don't have to be as consistently good for as long as they would to challenge Bayern Munich for the league title. Rose will play his traditional 4-4-2 formation, with the pairing of Donyell Malen and Haaland up top. Excellent passers Mahmoud Dahoud and Jude Bellingham playing balls in behind Frankfurt's defensive line should wreak havoc in Saturday's contest.
Defensively, Dortmund does have some question marks at the moment, but they can outscore anyone in the German top flight.
Frankfurt Up Against Things Entering Campaign
The Eagles faded hard to the end last season, with their xG performances dropping off significantly and the team running cold in front of goal. Now, Frankfurt is without their best attacking player in Silva and has to hope they can replace his 28 goals.
There are also major questions about Frankfurt on the defensive side after they were mediocre last year. Now, they're to implement a new pressing system under new manager Oliver Glasner in a shortened offseason. Frankfurt was middle of the road in shots allowed and shot quality allowed last season. Glasner's Wolfsburg was good at not conceding many shots at all, but did allow high-quality chances.
His Frankfurt team is in the danger zone if they haven't improved enough to prevent shots, but start allowing more high quality chances because of the increased pressing under Glasner. That's especially a concern against Dortmund's plus-passing midfield of Dahoud, Bellingham and Emre Can.
If those three have time on the ball, they'll find Malen and Haaland, who should rip them apart.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Frankfurt has looked really poor in its early matches under Glasner. It's only preseason, but they don't seem to have an answer to make up for Silva's goal scoring. Plus, the defense will take time to improve. Until then, I'm looking to play against them.
With fans back at the Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund should roll at home. And while my projections are pretty close to the number at -1.5 on the spread, I'm eager to find out if Frankfurt's defense can cope with Rose's transition attacking style.
Pick: Dortmund -1.5 (+100 or better)
