Fulham vs. Brighton Premier League Preview: Updated Betting Odds, Picks & Prediction
Bryn Lennon/Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Graham Potter and standut Pascal Groß of Brighton & Hove Albion.
Fulham vs. Brighton Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+102 / -126)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 2:30 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||Peacock Premium|
|Odds updated as of Tuesday afternoon via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Brighton & Hove Albion looks to continue its hot start when it travels to West London on Tuesday to face Fulham in Premier League action at Craven Cottage.
For a newly promoted team like the Cottagers, earning five points in your first four matches is an accomplishment, especially if two of those matches were against Liverpool and Arsenal.
Fulham is looking to survive this time around in the EPL and getting points at home against teams like Brighton is vital in its quest for survival.
We are only four matches into the season, but the Seagulls are currently top four in the table. Manager Graham Potter’s system is working to full effect right now, with Brighton winning three of its first four matches and only conceding one goal in the process.
The Cottagers have had a pretty difficult schedule to start the EPL season, having already faced Liverpool and Arsenal. Yet, through four matches, they’ve only created 3.04 xG from open play, held 35.5% possession on average and generated just 25 box entries.
Before the match against Arsenal and up to the half, Fulham only allowed Arsenal to amass 0.8 expected goals. Overall, the Cottagers’ statistical data looks like this: fourth-fewest Fulham shot creating action; top six in allowing opponents to get inside the penalty area; and, fourth in shots inside their own penalty area.
*(Graphic via understat.com)
Even if you look at the rolling xG, Arsenal had only created 0.77 xG when the Martin Odegaard goal happened in the 64th minute.
The bottom line is Fulham seems to be fine playing a more counterattacking style under manager Marco Silva considering it has the second-most direct attacks in the Premier League through four fixtures, per The Analyst.
By The Numbers
- 35.5% — Average possession held by Fulham this season, which is 19th in the Premier League.
- 8 — Direct attacks by Fulham, second most in the English top flight.
Brighton looks just as impressive as ever this season. Through four EPL matches, the Seagulls have accumulated 6.1 xG and only 3.9 xGA overall.
This is the type of match, similar to games against Newcastle United and Leeds United, where Brighton is going to dominate possession and pin their opponent inside the final third for a majority of the matches.
This is also the same Brighton team that finished the 2021-22 season with the fourth-highest average possession in the league. So, I really don’t see how Fulham is going to create anything of value.
Defensively, Brighton was so impressive last season in every facet. The Seagulls were top five in PPDA and pressure success rate, plus they allowed the fourth-fewest big scoring chances and crosses. They also conceded the fifth-fewest progressive passes plus dribbles, per fbref.com.
By The Numbers
- 54.5% — Average possession held by Brighton during the 2021-22 season, which is the fourth-best mark in the league.
- 165.8 — Average touches in the opponent’s final third of the pitch for Brighton. That’s the fifth-best mark out of 20 clubs.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Brighton is going to control a majority of the possession in this match, with Fulham looking to sit deep and counterattack.
The Seagulls’ style of possession is very slow and pragmatic, as their direct speed was 1.21 last 22 season, which was third slowest in the Premier League.
However, this is the same Brighton offense that was 17th in xG and 13th in big scoring chances a campaign ago. So, we could have a snoozer on our hands.
I have the Both Teams to Score (No) wager projected at -112, so I like the value we’re getting on the current line of +110 odds.
The Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (+110)