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Hungary vs. France Odds, Pick, Prediction, Preview: Total Has Value in Euro 2020 Group Play (June 19)

Hungary vs. France Odds, Pick, Prediction, Preview: Total Has Value in Euro 2020 Group Play (June 19) article feature image

Alex Grimm – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images. Pictured: France midfielder Paul Pogba.

  • France is a huge favorite over Hungary in Euro 2020 group play on Saturday (9 a.m. ET, ESPN) as the underdogs look to shock the tournament frontrunner.
  • The Hungarians, who suffered a 3-0 loss to Portugal in their opening match that was much closer than that for most of the match, face a talented French side that earned a 1-0 shutout win over Germany in their opener.
  • BJ Cunningham breaks down his Hungary vs. France pick and preview below.

Hungary vs. France Odds

Hungary Odds +900
France Odds -350
Draw +420
Over/Under 2.5 (-112 / -108)
Day | Time Saturday | 9 a.m. ET
Odds updated Friday afternoon via FanDuel.

France looks to take a stranglehold on the Euro 2020 “Group of Death” when it travels to Budapest to battle Hungary.

The Hungarians almost made it out of their first match with a result against Portugal, but eventually fell apart in the final 10 minutes of the match in a 3-0 loss. Unfortunately, it looks like Hungary is in over its head in Group F and doesn’t have much hope of getting to the knockout stage.

However, if it gets a point against the reigning world champion, it will still be alive going into their final group stage match against Germany.

Les Bleus put on a defensive masterclass against the Germans in their opening group-stage match, securing a 1-0 victory in Munich. A Mats Hummels own goal in the first half was the difference, and the French saw out the rest of the game in relatively comfortable fashion.

Now, France needs to take care of business on the road to potentially have an advantage going into their last group game against Portugal.

Underdog Hungary Needing Upset Result 

Poor Hungary got paired in the worst possible group, and it’s hard to sit here and give the country much hope, especially after its opening loss to Portugal.

Hungary was really underwhelming during Euro 2020 qualifying, finishing fourth in its group behind Croatia, Wales and Slovakia. The Hungarians are put up a dismal -2.9 expected-goal difference (xGD) in eight matches.

As you saw in the first game, Hungary tends to cater to its defense, which is the strength of this team since its two best players are RB Leipzig teammates in goalkeeper Péter Gulácsi and center back Willi Orban.

Hungary actually had the worst offense coming into the tournament, averaging only 1.14 xG per match throughout Euro and World Cup qualifying, so I have a hard time seeing how it’s going to score against one of Europe’s best defenses.

French Focused on Defensive Stability

As we saw against Germany, France actually is a pretty good defensive team.

Even though Les Bleus doesn’t have the big names on their back line, they basically stay very compact with N’Golo Kante, Adrien Rabiot and Paul Pogba dropping very deep, which they did for most of the Germany game. In fact France had the best defensive record coming into the tournament, allowing only 0.70 xG per match throughout Euro and World Cup qualifying.

The goal is to send Kylian Mbappé, Antoine Griezmann and Karim Benzema forward on the counterattack and it works.

We’ll most likely see France being the aggressor since Hungary will probably do what it did against Portugal for most of the match, which is keep at least nine guys behind the ball and send a few forward on the counter.

Despite having a frightening front three, France actually only created 0.34 xG against Germany and averaged just 2.04 xG per outing throughout Euro and World Cup qualifying. Needless to say, I think we are going to potentially see a low-scoring affair.

Betting Analysis & Pick

With two teams that love to play a more defensive style of soccer, I think goals will be hard to come by in this match. If France scores first, I see it being very compact defensively, looking to send Mbappé and Griezmann on the counter.

Since I only have 2.07 goals projected for this match, I think there is some value on the total under  2.5 goals at -108 via Fan Duel as my top selection.

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals (-108)

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