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La Liga Odds, Picks, Preview: Our Projections & Best Bets From Matches Featuring Real Sociedad, Sevilla

La Liga Odds, Picks, Preview: Our Projections & Best Bets From Matches Featuring Real Sociedad, Sevilla article feature image
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David S. Bustamante/Soccrates/Getty Images). Pictured: Sevilla goalkeeper Yassine Bounou Bono.

While Italy, France, and Germany are off until next weekend, La Liga starts back up this weekend with a full slate of matches on deck.

Right now, Real Madrid has a vice grip on the league title, currently holding an eight-point lead over second-place Sevilla. Both Atlético Madrid and Barcelona are struggling to keep pace.

*(Image courtesy via Google)

This weekend’s matches have been dampened by a wave of positive COVID-19 cases among a lot of clubs across Spain. So, this would be an important time to say my projections below don’t take into account suspensions or injuries. That said, it might be a good idea to wait until lineups come out or injury news gets announced.

If you’re looking for a resource on La Liga injuries/COVID-19 news you can find that here. If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

La Liga Projections

Best Bets

Alavés vs. Real Sociedad

Alavés Odds +235
Real Sociedad Odds +125
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (+140/ -175)
Day | Time Sunday | 12:30 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here

Real Sociedad has been struggling as of late, picking up just one point in their last four matches. However, this is a great buy-low opportunity on the road against one of the worst teams in Spain.

During their four-match skid, Real Sociedad’s underlying metrics haven’t been as bad as their actual results. The club has created 5.2 expected goals in those games and played a really tough schedule, with three of the fixtures coming against Real Madrid, Real Betis and Villarreal.

The White and Blues were also without their best player — Mikel Oyarzabal — for a month, so getting him back is crucial for their offense to thrive.

They will have a much easier time creating chances against an Alavés defense that has been leaking goals all season. Alavés is allowing 1.29 NPxG per match, which is 17th in La Liga. They’re also bottom five in shots allowed per 90 minutes, box entries conceded and crosses completed into their penalty area.

So, Real Sociedad should have plenty of high quality chances, especially with a fully healthy roster.

I have Real Sociedad projected at +112, so I like the value on them at +125 odds via Caesars on the road to pick up all three points.

Pick: Real Sociedad ML (+125)

Osasuna vs. Athletic Bilbao 

Osasuna Odds +205
Athletic Bilbao Odds +155
Draw +210
Over/Under 1.5 (-185 / +145)
Day | Time Monday | 3 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here

This match is likely going to be a snoozer between two of the best defensive outfits in the country’s first division.

Osasuna has hit a rut after starting the season off red hot. They haven’t won a match in La Liga since Oct. 22 and have really been struggling to create chances in front of net. Osasuna has only created more than one xG once in their last eight matches and that was against Elche, who has one of the worst defenses in the league.

(graphic via infogol.net)

Now they have to go up against one of the best, most disciplined defenses in La Liga. Athletic Bilbao is only allowing only 0.88 NPxG per match and have allowed only 12 big scoring chances in 19 contest. In addition, Osasuna’s top forwards — Kike and Ezequiel Ávila — who have created 5.95 of Osasuna’s 18.45 xG this season, had positive COVID-19 tests. So, I don’t see how they will find the back of the net.

Offensively, Athletic Bilbao has been good this season, averaging 1.49 xG per match, but they haven’t been that efficient as of late. In their last eight games, Athletic Bilbao has only created 8.9 xG thus far.

Osasuna has been an incredible defensive outfit, allowing only 0.97 NPxG per match, which is the fifth-best mark in La Liga. They’ve been much better defensively at home as well, allowing 0.94 xG per match on home soil versus 1.15 xG per outing on the road.

So, with this type of defensive slugfest, I have a hard time seeing how both teams are going to find the back of the net. I have the Both Teams To Score (No) line projected at -187 odds, so I love the current line of -145 via DraftKings and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Both Teams to Score — No (-145)

Cádiz vs. Sevilla

Cádiz Odds +380
Sevilla Odds -120
Draw +245
Over/Under 2.5 (+155 / -190)
Day | Time Monday | 3:15 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here

Sevilla may be sitting in second place, but they have been drastically over performing lately.

Sevilla has picked up seven points in their last six matches with a +2 actual goal differential. However, they have been out-created 4.3 xG to 10.1 xG, so they are due for some negative regression, especially defensively. To make matters worse, Sevilla will be down their three centerbacks Jules Kounde, Diego Carlos, and Karim Rekik for this match.

Cádiz is one of the worst teams in Spain and hasn’t done much offensively this season, ranking in the bottom five of every single offensive metric. However, with Sevilla struggling defensively and given the fact down their top three centerbacks, Cádiz could get on the board here.

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On the other end of the pitch, Cádiz is the worst defensive team in Spain, allowing 1.43 npxG per match. It is highly susceptible to giving up big scoring chances, allowing 29, which is the most in the league this season, along with 14.44 shots per 90 minutes, which is the second worst mark in La Liga.

So, Sevilla, who has created the fourth most big scoring chances and is top eight in npxG and shots per 90 minutes, they should have no trouble finding the back of the net.

I have 2.29 goals projected for this match, so I like the value on the total clearing two goals on the alternative line at -110 odds via DraftKings and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Total Over 2 Goals (-110)

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