Ligue 1 Odds, Picks & Prediction: Nantes vs. Lille Betting Preview (Friday, Aug. 12)
Francois Nascimbeni/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: Lille teammates Jonathan David, left, and Akim Zedadka celebrate the Canada international’s goal.
Nantes vs. Lille Odds
|Over/Under||2.5 (+100 / -140)|
|Day | Time||Friday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||beIN SPORTS | fuboTV|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Lille travels to Nantes on Friday looking build off its huge win during opening week of Ligue 1 action.
A lot of changes are going on at the club, but the match against Auxerre shows Lea Dogues are still one of the five best teams in France.
Nantes finished a spot ahead of Lille in the table last season and was the French Cup winner. The side settled for a 0-0 draw with Angers in its season debut, so it needs points to avoid falling behind early on in the table.
Nantes was the biggest over-performer in France last season. The fact it finished in ninth place with a -11.5 xGDiff was pretty insane. The team was bottom six in xG and xGA, but on paper it was top 10 in actual goals for and goals against overall.
Nantes didn’t make any significant upgrades in the offseason, so an over-performance of about 18 goals has it due for some major negative regression.
By The Numbers
- -11.5 — Nantes’ xGDiff in the 2021-22 season, which was 15th in Ligue 1. The club did finish in ninth place, though.
- 12.18 — Number of box entries allowed per 90 minutes by the club last season. It was the fourth-worst mark in league play.
A lot has changed at Lille this season. Sven Botman, Renato Sanches, Zeki Çelik and Amadou Onana have left the club, plus it has a new manager in Paulo Fonseca. He was previously the boss at Serie A power Roma before Jose Mourinho took the reins.
If Lille is even somewhere in the realm of how good it was on defense last season, I don’t see Nantes creating anywhere close to 1.00 xG in this clash. Lille was second in terms of xGA at 1.06 per match and allowed the fewest big scoring chances of anybody in Europe’s top-five leagues.
In regard to positive regression, Lille is the perfect candidate. Les Dogues had a +12.1 xGDiff during the 2021-22 season, but their actual goal differential was even.
By The Numbers
- 17 — Number of big scoring chances Lille allowed during the 2021-22 season. It was the best mark in Europe’s top five leagues.
- 66.82 — Lille’s expected points last season, which was the second-best number in Ligue 1 behind only Paris Saint-Germain, per understat.com
Cunningham’s Ligue 1 Projections
Betting Analysis & Pick
In terms of matchups for Nantes, this is about as bad as it gets. Lille also won the xG battle a combined 2.5-1.4 margin over the two meetings last season.
*(Rankings are based on 2021-22 season)
I’m projecting a little value on Lille, so I like the visiting side via the Draw No Bet wager at -124 odds or better.
The Pick: Lille — Draw No Bet (-124)