MLS Is Back Odds, Picks and Predictions (Tuesday, July 14): Orlando City vs. NYCFC

MLS Is Back: Orlando City vs. New York City FC Odds, Picks

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Group A gets their second round of fixtures going Tuesday as the tournament-hosts Orlando City take on New York City FC.

Orlando bounce into the match off a last-gasp win over Inter Miami in their opening game, while NYCFC will be looking to get right after a disappointing 1-0 loss to Philadelphia.

Orlando City

The Lions dominated most of the first half against Inter Miami, but allowed Miami to go ahead to start the second half. However, the Lions stormed back with two goals in the final 27 minutes.

Orlando was the better side for most of the match, but barely won the expected goals battle, 1.48 to 1.44.

Orlando finished second-to-last in the Eastern Conference a season ago. However, the Lions were a tad unlucky throughout the campaign, as they finished in the top half of the MLS in expected goal differential and had the third-best defense in the league, in terms of xG.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Oscar Pareja, who enjoyed a lot of success at FC Dallas, was brought in as the new manager and the Lions upgraded at goalkeeper with the arrival of Pedro Gallese. If Orlando's defense holds up they should be able to hang with NYCFC.

New York City FC

The Pigeons were unlucky to lose to Philadelphia Union in their opening match. NYCFC outshot the Union, 17 to 8, and won the expected goals battle 1.87 to 0.38.

NYCFC returned almost their entire roster from last season when they led the Eastern Conference with 64 points and finished third in the MLS with a +11.12 expected goal differential (per American Soccer Analysis).

New York City FC changed managers before the season, bringing in Ronny Deila, who has been dubbed “The Norwegian Klopp.” Delia changed NYCFC over to a 4-2-3-1 and with the change came some growing pains, as was shown in their match against Philadelphia.

I expect those scoring woes will continue against the third-best defense in MLS.

Analysis

• Orlando City projected odds: +280 (26.32% win probability)
• New York City FC projected odds: +115 (46.59%)
• Draw projected odds: +269 (27.09%)
• Orlando City projected xG: 1.02
• New York City FC projected xG: 1.38

Based on my model, I don't see any value in backing either side in this match. That being said, I do see some value on the Over/Under for this match.

Since I have 2.40 projected goals for this match, I am going to back Under 2.5 goals at plus-money.