MLS Sunday: Two Value Bets on East vs. West
Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Seattle Sounders’ Clint Dempsey
- MLS value plays were in the green again on Saturday night, and are now up more than +17 units on the season.
- There are just two matches on the board Sunday, but there's betting value in both.
Sunday night’s MLS action kicks off with a couple of in-form teams with the Seattle Sounders taking on New York City FC, followed by LA Galaxy-Orlando City SC. Both matches feature a Western Conference team hosting an Eastern Conference side.
Saturday’s value plays went 2-2 for +0.78 units earned, and are now up more than +17 units on the season.
After analyzing the betting market for Sunday, I’ve picked out two value plays.
Season Record: 37-43-2, +17.46 units, 22% ROI
>> All odds as of 11 a.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLS odds and track your bets
New York City FC at Seattle Sounders
Moneyline odds: Seattle +112, NYC FC +254, Draw +264
Total: 2.5 (o-125)
Time: 5 p.m. ET
The Seattle Sounders are getting hot at the right time and are unbeaten in their last five matches (three wins, two draws). Unfortunately they have to face New York City FC on Sunday, winners of four straight games, all via shutout.
Despite the success for NYC FC, new head coach Dome Torren was really unhappy with his team’s performance against Orlando City on Thursday night. He was quoted saying, “We played bad, really bad. I don’t like to defend deep, I repeat three times, but I don’t know what happened.”
This is a great mentality to have for one of the league’s top clubs, but indicates that they may not be doing everything they’re supposed to.
Public bettors haven’t been deterred, or simply don’t care, since NYC FC has received nearly 50% of moneyline bets as +255 road underdogs. Despite the lopsided support, the line has moved away from NYC FC. This indicates that sharper money is coming in on Seattle and the draw, and I love the plus-money value at +112.
Bet: Seattle (+112)
Orlando City SC at LA Galaxy
Moneyline odds: LA Galaxy -235, Orlando City +627, Draw +409
Total: 3.5 (o-120)
Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
The LA Galaxy just keep racking up the points after they stormed back to draw, 2-2, at LA FC late on Thursday night. They’re now unbeaten in their last eight matches (four wins, four draws) and get a juicy home matchup against one of the league’s weakest teams, Orlando City SC.
The betting odds certainly reflect the mismatch on paper as the LA Galaxy are hefty -235 favorites. Initially the line dropped down to -200, but lopsided betting on LA (80% of tickets) has pushed the number back up.
This line appears to be inflated solely on LA’s positive results and Orlando City’s poor results. Over the last few games, those results have been a bit misleading though. The Galaxy were fortunate to get a point at LA FC last week and stole a win in New England two weeks ago. Meanwhile, Orlando City recently blew a late lead to lose at Columbus, and were shutout by NYC FC despite playing well.
The value here is on Orlando City +1.5 to keep this game in striking distance. If you look at each team’s xGD (expected goal differential), there’s still not a whole lot separating the two despite the Galaxy attaining better results. Orlando City may still lose, but I like their chances to keep it within a one-goal deficit.
Bet: Orlando City +1.5 (-129)
Seattle (+112) vs. NYC FC
Orlando City +1.5 (-129) at LA Galaxy