Premier League leaders Arsenal (15-2-3) host the reigning champions Liverpool (10-6-4) on Thursday, January 8, at 3:00 p.m. EST at the Emirates Stadium in London, England.
This matchup serves as a significant test for Arsenal's title ambitions against a Liverpool side desperate to climb back into contention. The Gunners are favored at a 62-cent price, with the over/under set at 2.5 goals.
Let's get into my Liverpool vs. Arsenal prediction.
Liverpool vs. Arsenal Prediction
Pick: Both Teams To Score
My Liverpool vs. Arsenal best bet focuses on both teams finding the back of the net in this match.
Liverpool vs. Arsenal Odds
Liverpool vs. Arsenal Picks
Pick: Both Teams To Score
While much of the narrative surrounds Arsenal’s defensive strength this season, a closer look reveals some recent vulnerabilities.
Mikel Arteta’s squad has conceded a goal in five of its last six Premier League matches. This trend extends to their home performances, where they have allowed a goal in their last four competitive games at the Emirates.
On the offensive side, Arsenal’s output is superb. Even with injuries to key attackers, the Gunners possess the second-highest goal total and second-highest expected goals (xG) in the league.
They have scored in all 15 competitive home matches this season, with an impressive average of 2.53 goals per contest.
Despite a season that has fallen short of expectations, Liverpool enters this game on an eight-match unbeaten run in the league. In that stretch, Arne Slot’s team has scored in seven of those games, an average of 1.75 goals per game.
History also strongly supports this pick. Arsenal may be the clear favorite, but the club has found it extremely difficult to shut out Liverpool.
The Gunners have conceded a goal in the last 11 head-to-head meetings, with their last Premier League clean sheet against Liverpool dating back to 2015.
Liverpool vs. Arsenal Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Liverpool | Draw | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 18.1% | 21.9% | 60.0% |
Projected Total Goals
| Liverpool | Total Goals | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| 0.87 | 2.67 | 1.80 |
Liverpool vs. Arsenal Betting Analysis
A 14-point gap separates these two giants in the Premier League table, which highlights the stakes for both clubs. Arsenal needs a victory to maintain its push for a first league title since 2004, while Liverpool requires a positive result to stay in the hunt for a top-four spot.
In the reverse fixture this season, Liverpool secured a 1-0 victory at Anfield. That result represents one of just two league defeats for Arsenal all season and is the only match in any competition in which the Gunners failed to score.
The defensive contrast between the two is stark; Liverpool has conceded 28 league goals, exactly double the 14 allowed by Arsenal's top-ranked defense.
However, Arsenal's home-field advantage cannot be overstated. The Gunners have won nine and drawn one of their 10 league matches at the Emirates, with clean sheets in half of them. But the head-to-head data tells a different story.
Six of the last seven Premier League meetings between these sides have seen both teams score. The recent history suggests goals are likely, with the last seven league matchups an average of 3.42 goals per game.
This trend, combined with Arsenal’s recently penetrable defense and Liverpool’s consistent attack — albeit unspectacular — points toward offensive action from both teams.
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