Aston Villa (13-4-3) and Crystal Palace (7-7-6) will face off today at 2:30 p.m. EST at Selhurst Park in London.
Let's get into my Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace prediction.
Aston Villa is favored at a +135 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-111o / -118u) goals.
Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace Prediction
Pick: Under 3.5 Goals
My Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace best bet is on the match to stay under four total goals.
Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace Odds
| Aston Villa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 +125 | 2.5 -111o / -118u | +135 |
| Crystal Palace Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 -175 | 2.5 -111o / -118u | +200 |
Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace Betting Picks
Pick: Under 3.5 Goals
The case for this pick begins with Crystal Palace’s recent struggles. The Eagles are currently on a seven-match winless streak across all competitions and look completely inefficient in the attacking third. Over their last five Premier League games, Palace have scored just two goals despite generating chances worth 7.55 expected goals (xG), a clear indication of serious finishing issues.
Those attacking problems are even more pronounced at home, where they have managed only 10 goals all season, the second-lowest total in the league.
A brutal schedule and a growing injury list further compound Palace’s difficulties. This will be their 14th match in 41 days, and manager Oliver Glasner lacks the squad depth required to rotate effectively. Key absences, including Eddie Nketiah, Chris Richards and Ismaila Sarr, significantly weaken the team’s ability to compete.
In contrast, Aston Villa arrive with considerable momentum. Unai Emery’s side has lost just once in its last 13 matches, winning 12 during that stretch. Their attack has been both consistent and reliable, scoring in 15 of their last 16 league games.
While many of Villa’s recent fixtures have produced high goal totals, projections for this matchup point to a more restrained contest, with an expected total of around 2.65 goals. That outlook aligns well with the Under 3.5 goals component of the pick, as Palace’s attacking struggles should help keep the scoreline below four goals.
Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Aston Villa | Draw | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| 36.2% | 25.6% | 38.3% |
Projected Total Goals
| Aston Villa | Total Goals | Crystal Palace |
|---|---|---|
| 1.31 | 2.65 | 1.34 |
Crystal Palace vs. Aston Villa Betting Analysis
Despite Aston Villa’s superior current form, the head-to-head history strongly favors the home side. Crystal Palace have dominated this matchup in recent years, winning five of the last six meetings, including an emphatic 3-0 victory in the reverse fixture earlier this season.
The managerial history also tilts toward Palace. Unai Emery has a poor record against the Eagles, with just two wins and six losses in 11 encounters. By contrast, Oliver Glasner has won five of his six career matches against Emery.
The underlying data tells another intriguing story. Aston Villa sit third in the Premier League table, but expected points (xPTS) models suggest they should be closer to 14th. Crystal Palace, meanwhile, are 14th in the standings yet project closer to sixth based on performance metrics. That gap implies Villa have significantly overperformed their numbers, while Palace have been unfortunate not to secure better results.
From a tactical perspective, Palace are likely to concede possession. They allow opponents the most passes per defensive action in the league and rarely press high. Their clearest advantage may come in aerial duels, where they rank fourth-best in the Premier League, against a Villa side that ranks last. That mismatch points toward crosses and long balls as a primary attacking route for the hosts.
Both teams have also shown vulnerability on set pieces, ranking as the two worst sides in the league for shots conceded from dead-ball situations. That weakness could open the door for a goal arriving against the run of play.
