The market for who will be appointed the next permanent Manchester United manager shows a wide field of contenders and no clear-cut favorite, with Crystal Palace's Oliver Glasner the frontrunner at around 39% probability at Polymarket. After Glasner, former England boss Gareth Southgate sits next on about 15%, followed closely by United's interim Darren Fletcher at roughly 14% and Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca at about 12%.
United moved on from manager Ruben Amorim this week after just 14 months.
Odds to Be Next Manchester United Manager
Odds via Polymarket and updated every 60 minutes
These odds reflect a moment of flux — Manchester United recently sacked Amorim this week, ending his 14-month tenure after mixed results and internal tensions. Darren Fletcher has been installed as caretaker manager, but the prediction market explicitly excludes temporary appointments and only resolves if a permanent hire is announced.
Why Glasner leads the market: Oliver Glasner has been highly regarded for his managerial work with Crystal Palace, and that reputation translates into strong backing in prediction markets. Unlike some candidates who are popular because of name recognition, Glasner is perceived as a credible next long-term appointment who could steady United’s ship.
Other candidates in the mix:
Gareth Southgate, despite being out of work, remains on the radar due to his England experience; he’s shown moderate support in the market.
Darren Fletcher’s odds suggest that some traders think United might go internally — a reflection of his deep club ties and current interim role. Fletcher played at United from 2002-2015 and has served as the club's U-18 manager since July. He's been in various managerial roles with the organization since 2020.
Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca still attracts interest despite mixed bookmaker odds; his tactical approach and experience with youth development appeal to some markets.
It’s worth noting that other bookmakers and betting markets show slightly different pictures:
Some have Fletcher or Ole Gunnar Solskjær as favorites at certain prices in traditional odds markets, though that doesn’t always align with the Polymarket distribution.
A wider range of names, from established veterans (e.g., Pochettino, Southgate, McKenna, Carrick) to longshot legends (Zidane, Mourinho, Klopp in some bookies) appear in broader betting odds — highlighting the speculative and fluid nature of any coaching search.
United are in a transitional phase, having cycled through numerous managers since Sir Alex Ferguson’s retirement and currently sitting outside the top spots in the Premier League, spurring fans and pundits alike to debate the type of manager the club now needs. Figures like Gary Neville have publicly urged the club to pick someone who aligns with traditional United values, while reports suggest potential interim or long-term choices are being weighed carefully.
In short, the prediction market paints Glasner as the most likely next permanent Manchester United manager, with Southgate, Fletcher, and Maresca also well-backed, but the situation remains dynamic. The official appointment — if it comes before the end of 2026 — will immediately settle the market.
