Manchester United (8-5-7) and Burnley (3-14-3) will face off today at 3:15 p.m. EST at Turf Moor in Burnley, England.
Man U is favored at a -145 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-138o / +110u) goals.
Let's get into my Man U vs. Burnley prediction.
Man U vs. Burnley Prediction
Pick:Both Teams to Score
My Man U vs. Burnley best bet is on both sides finding the net.
Man U vs. Burnley Odds
| Man U Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-0.5 -160 | 2.5 -138o / +110u | -145 |
| Burnley Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+0.5 +115 | 2.5 -138o / +110u | +390 |
Man U vs. Burnley Pick
Pick: Both Teams to Score
Manchester United enter this contest with a new face on the sideline, but their on-field patterns remain largely unchanged, especially away from home. The club has failed to keep a single clean sheet in 10 Premier League road matches this season, conceding 16 goals in that span. Even a visit to Wolves, the only team currently below Burnley in the table, resulted in United allowing a goal. That ongoing defensive fragility away from Old Trafford gives Burnley a clear opportunity.
While the Clarets are stuck in a prolonged winless run, their attack has shown encouraging signs of life. Scott Parker’s side has scored in five of its last eight league matches and demonstrated its ability to trouble this United defense earlier in the season, scoring twice in the reverse fixture at Old Trafford.
At the other end, Manchester United’s attack has rarely been an issue. The Red Devils have found the net in nine of their 10 away league games. That combination, a reliable United attack paired with a vulnerable United defense, has resulted in the “Both Teams to Score” market cashing in 90% of their road matches this season, providing strong support for this Burnley vs. Manchester United pick.
Man U vs. Burnley Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Man U | Draw | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| 56.8% | 21.6% | 21.6% |
Projected Total Goals
| Man U | Total Goals | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| 1.86 | 2.93 | 1.07 |
Man U vs. Burnley Betting Analysis
A deeper dive into the data explains why goals are a reasonable expectation. Manchester United boast the Premier League’s third-best attack by expected goals (xG), a metric that highlights their ability to consistently create high-quality chances. They now face a Burnley defense that owns the highest expected goals against (xGA) figure in the division, suggesting United should generate plenty of scoring opportunities.
History also supports goals at both ends in this matchup. Both teams have scored in five of the last six Premier League meetings between these sides. The most recent encounter was a perfect example: a 3-2 thriller won by Manchester United via a late penalty. Although United finished that match with a significantly higher xG, Burnley still managed to breach their defense twice.
A similar game script is likely here. United should dominate possession and create the bulk of the chances, but their defensive lapses away from Old Trafford continue to leave the door open. Burnley will likely spend long spells absorbing pressure and look to strike on the counter, yet given United’s struggles to keep clean sheets on the road, one successful break could be enough to ensure both teams find the net.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Man U vs. Burnley picks.
