Newcastle vs Man United Odds, Pick: Home Side Has Value in Premier League

Newcastle vs Man United Odds, Pick: Home Side Has Value in Premier League article feature image

Visionhaus/Getty. Pictured: Allan Saint-Maximin.

Newcastle vs Man United Odds

Sunday, Apr. 2
11:30 a.m. ET
USA Network

Newcastle Odds


Man United Odds

Over/Under2.5 (-108 / -112)
Both Teams to Score (Yes/No)(-146 / +114)
Odds via FanDuel. Get the latest soccer odds here.

Manchester United travel to St. James Park to take on Newcastle in a crucial battle in the race for the top four.

Newcastle got a late penalty to secure all three points on the road at Nottingham Forest right before the international break. The win put them now two points behind Tottenham for fourth place, but they do have two games in hand. They were beaten by Manchester United in the League Cup final at the end of February, so they will be out for revenge on Sunday.

The Red Devils progressed to the FA Cup semifinals with a win over Fulham right before the international break. However, things haven't been going well in the Premier League, as their last two matches have been a 0-0 draw with Southampton at home and then a famous 7-0 drubbing at the hands of Liverpool.

Let's dive into this Newcastle vs Man United fixture.

Newcastle a High Quality Home Side

Newcastle are a really direct team, so an end-to-end style match is actually how they want to play. Against Nottingham Forest, another very direct team, we saw that play out. For the season, Newcastle have 41 build-up attacks compared to 54 direct attacks, per The Analyst.

In that League Cup final, Manchester United chose to play a ton of long balls instead of playing out of the back. The reason? Because Newcastle are the best pressing team in the Premier League. Eddie Howe sets his team up to force teams to the play the ball out wide and sets pressing traps to eventually win the ball and attack the opposing opposition when they're out of position.

Newcastle lead the Premier League in high turnovers this season, which has also led them to having a 38.73% final third to penalty box entry conversion rate, the best mark in the Premier League.

On top of that, their big money signing Alexander Isak is starting to find his form. He's played close to seven full 90s and already has created 5.5 xG.

Newcastle are also one of the best home teams in the Premier League this season with a +13.1 xGD in 13 matches. The loss to Liverpool is their only blemish.

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Will Man United Take Same Tactical Approach

This is a rematch of the League Cup final, but this time Manchester United will be without Casemiro, who is their most important player.

With him in the lineup, Manchester United are only allowing 1.11 xG per 90 minutes. Without him, they’re allowing 1.68. The matches they’ve played without him have been against Brighton, Brentford and Liverpool at the beginning of the season when Manchester United kept getting dismantled in transition. Since then, the biggest match that he’s missed was the 3-2 loss to Arsenal on the road.

It'll be interesting to see how Manchester United choose to set up tactically. In the League Cup final, they played incredibly direct, with De Gea sending 60% of his passes into the Newcastle half of the pitch. That was by design because of how good Newcastle’s high press has been this season and De Gea is horrible on the ball. Do Manchester United do the exact same thing and turn this into an end-to-end style match? I know they won the League Cup final 2-0, but the xG battle was essentially even with Newcastle tilting the field on United at 65.0% and Manchester United playing a very deep average defensive line at 36.5 yards from the goal.

Manchester United also had just four 10+ pass sequences and a 65.1% build up completion percentage, which just goes to show that they were set up to play very direct. That will play right into Newcastle's hands.

Newcastle vs Man United Pick

I really don't understand why this match is close to a pick'em at St. James' Park with Manchester United not having their most important player available.

Manchester United did beat them in the League Cup final, but xG showed that match was dead even. If they decide to build out of the back, then Newcastle can press them high and cause all sorts of problems. If United decides to play the ball long and make this match very transitional, that also plays right into Newcastle's hands.

So, without Casemiro I have Newcastle projected at -107. I love their draw no bet line.

Pick: Newcastle – Draw No Bet (-140) 

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