Wednesday Premier League Betting Odds, Pick, Preview: Value Sitting With West Ham in Match Against Arsenal

Arsenal vs. West Ham Odds

Arsenal can move inside the top four of the Premier League on Wednesday when it hosts West Ham United at Emirates Stadium.

The Gunners appeared to get back on track with a convincing 3-0 win over Southampton last weekend. They've been a roller-coaster under Mikel Arteta, taking care of business against teams they should beat and crumbling whenever they have to play anybody good. West Ham falls into the category of a "good" team, so we'll see if Arsenal can finally beat a superior team.

The Hammers walked away from Turf Moor this past Sunday with a 0-0 draw against Burnley, but the result kept them in the top four. West Ham is dealing with a host of injuries and it could not have come at a worse time with the festive fixture period around the corner.

First thing's first, though. West Ham has a great chance of getting a result against an overrated Arsenal team.

Did Win Again Southampton Fix Arsenal?

Arsenal delivered a very good performance over the weekend, especially defensively, only allowing Southampton to create 0.50 expected goals. The Gunners also did a fantastic job playing through Southampton's press. 

That being said, this is a classic Arsenal letdown spot against an above-average opponent. The Gunners tend to crumble against the league's top sides.

Defensively, they allowed 2.9 xG to Chelsea, 3.8 xG to Manchester City, 4.3 xG to Liverpool and 1.9 xG to Manchester United. West Ham ranks in the top five in non-penalty expected goal difference this season in the Premier League, as well as shots per 90 minutes and big scoring chances. 

Additionally, Arsenal is dealing with some internal issues. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and will be out for an undetermined period of time after being stripped of the club captaincy. His absence and the surrounding drama had no effect on the team against Southampton, but we'll see if it catches up with the Gunners here.

West Ham Attack Will Cause Problems

The Hammers offense has been incredible this season. What's made it so impressive is that it's been a group effort.

West Ham is averaging 1.26 NPxG per 90 minutes, which is sixth in the Premier League. Michail Antonio, Jarred Bowen and Pablo Fornals are combining for 1.03 xG and 0.64 xAssists per 90 minutes. The Hammers should have no trouble creating chances against an Arsenal defense that has faltered every single time they have to face a good attack.

West Ham is thin defensively coming into this match, with Angelo Ogbonna already out for the season. Kurt Zouma is sidelined with a hamstring injury, while Ben Johnson will miss the game and Aaron Cresswell is questionable.

However, having two incredible defensive midfielders like Declan Rice and Tomáš Souček, both of whom are in the top 25 in the Premier League in interceptions + tackles (per fbref.com), is a huge benefit and makes the defensive injuries a little less detrimental.

Betting Analysis & Pick

Arsenal is overvalued again, plain and simple.

Both teams have faced Manchester City, Chelsea and Liverpool once this season. Arsenal has a combined -4.1 xGD against those teams, while West Ham is at +4.3.

I have this match projected pretty close to a Pick'em with Arsenal at +155, so I love the Hammers +0.5 at -130 odds and will make them my top pick.

Pick: West Ham +0.5 (-130)