Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Norwich City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion Betting Preview (Oct. 16)

Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Norwich City vs. Brighton & Hove Albion Betting Preview (Oct. 16) article feature image
Credit:

James Gill – Danehouse/Getty Images. Pictured: Neal Maupay.

Norwich City vs. Brighton Odds

Norwich City Odds +260
Brighton Odds +110
Draw +225
Over/Under 2.5 (+110 / -143)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via FoxBet. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Norwich City look to get out of the Premier League basement on Saturday when they host Brighton & Hove Albion at Carrow Road.

It’s been a really difficult first season since promotion for the Canaries, who currently sit 20th in the table. Nothing has gone right for manager Daniel Farke’s men, but Saturday is another opportunity to get things back on the right track. However, it’s one of the worst matchups for the Canaries outside of the top-four teams in the league.

Brighton are having a fantastic start to the 2021-22 season, currently sitting in sixth place with 14 points from their first seven matches. What’s funny about the Seagulls this season is they’ve actually over performed their expected goals record, when it was the opposite last season.

Another three points from manager Graham Potter’s men could potentially vault Brighton up into the top four, an achievement over the course of an entire season that would be historic for a club that has never even finished in the top half of the table in the top flight of English football.

Norwich City Struggling All Over Field

Norwich City have been really bad through their first seven matches of the season, with only a single point so far. 

The Canaries allowed the most non-penalty expected goals (NPxG) at 13.3, second-most passes into their final third, second-lowest pressure success rate and the most touches in both their own final third and penalty area. 

The most concerning of those stats to me in this match is the pressure success rate. Brighton rank fourth in pressure success rate allowed and third OPPDA, which quantifies a team to escape pressure. All that to say it’s going to be tough for Norwich if they don’t very many counter-attacking opportunities.

Offensively, things aren’t much better for the Canaries, who have the fewest xG created in the Premier League at 5.63, fewest shot-creating actions and sit in the bottom three of just about every metric you look at.

Brighton Soaring Toward Top-Four Fight

Brighton’s numbers through the first seven matches aren’t even close to how good they were last season, highlighted by only a +0.22 expected-goals differential. However, the Seagulls were by far the best team on the pitch against Arsenal before the break. 

Even though it was a 0-0 draw, Brighton won the xG battle by a 1.4-0.5 margin, had 35 shot-creating actions to Arsenal’s 13 and delivered 18 passes that led to a shot compared to only five for Arsenal. 

This is the same club we all fell in love with last season.

Where Brighton have really had a lot of success this season is at the defensive end of the pitch. The Seagulls are allowing only 0.89 NPxG per match, and the main reason for that is because they’ve allowed the fewest big-scoring chances of anyone in the Premier League this season.

Facing a Norwich attack that is 20th in NPxG and 19th in big-scoring chances presents a fantastic matchup for Brighton.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

As you can see, Brighton have massive advantages all over the field against Norwich, especially defensively, considering the Canaries have one of the worst offenses in the Premier League in terms of creating chances.

I have Brighton projected at -134, so I think there is plenty of value on them at +110; which is currently available at FoxBet. I would play it down to -110 odds. 

Pick: Brighton ML (+115)

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