Premier League Betting Picks, Predictions, Preview: Projections & Best Bets, Including Leeds (Oct. 30-Nov. 1)

Premier League Betting Picks, Predictions, Preview: Projections & Best Bets, Including Leeds (Oct. 30-Nov. 1) article feature image
Credit:

Matthew Ashton – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Leeds standout Jack Harrison.

The headline coming out of the Premier League last week was Liverpool’s beatdown of Manchester United at Old Trafford.

The Reds pasted the hosts in a 5-0 blowout behind a hat trick from Mohamed Salah, who is the hottest striker on the planet.

Hat-trick ✅ Assist ✅ Player of the Match ✅@MoSalah’s performance on Sunday simply had it all 🙌 pic.twitter.com/0A4pEwZ8m9

— Liverpool FC (@LFC) October 26, 2021

The title race is now down to Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City, with Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal nowhere close to level of those three clubs.

This week’s fixtures are headlined by a fascinating encounter with two clubs heading in the wrong direction and both managers firmly on the hot seat, as Tottenham hosts Manchester United. There’s also an interesting matchup for top-six purposes, with Leicester City hosting Arsenal at King Power Stadium.

If you’re new to our soccer coverage, I will be providing my projections for every Premier League match, along with every other game from Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1, plus Champions League and Europa League when they’re in action.

If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Leicester City vs. Arsenal

Leicester City Odds +150
Arsenal Odds +180
Draw +250
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / +100)
Day | Time Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Leicester City has turned a corner on offense. Since the loss to Brighton & Hove Albion in mid-September, the club has created 7.17 expected goals in their last four matches against Burnley, Crystal Palace, Manchester United and Brentford.

Jamie Vardy will be out for this match, but I don’t think that matters too much anymore since the Foxes now have depth at the striker position with Kelechi Iheanacho and Patson Daka. Iheanacho is averaging 0.59 xG + xAssists in nine appearances and Daka has been instant offense. He has only played 73 minutes in the English top flight, but in that limited time, he has 1.22 xG and 1.09 xAssists, per understat.com.

Defense is still an issue for Leicester, though. Brentford beat them on xG, but outside of the big chances created in the third minute, the Bees didn’t register a shot with an xG rating higher than 0.13 in the match.

(graphic via infogol.net)

Now, Arsenal is starting to look much better than the team we saw get crushed by Manchester City and Chelsea earlier in the season. The Gunners dominated Aston Villa, but they do have some injury and illness issues entering this match.

Ben White was subbed off with an illness during their League Cup match against Leeds United on Tuesday, plus injured Martin Odegaard and Kieran Tierney are both questionable to play, so those are things to monitor. 

Offensively, Arsenal has been much improved. Since the loss to Manchester City, the club has created 9.39 xG in six matches. That said, they should be able to penetrate a Leicester backline, but Arsenal’s defense overall this season is not good, allowing 1.71 NPxG per match.

So, going up against one of the hottest offenses in the league potentially without White and Tirerny is a really bad matchup for Arsenal. 

I have Leicester projected at +117, so I think there’s value on their Draw No Bet line at -120 via DraftKings and would play it up to -130 odds.

Pick: Leicester City — Draw No Bet (-120)

Newcastle vs. Chelsea

Newcastle Odds +800
Chelsea Odds -275
Draw +400
Over/Under 2.5 (-135 / +110)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Newcastle was able to draw with Crystal Palace, but it wasn’t a good effort. The Magpies were got thoroughly dominated on xG and the defensive numbers have been really bad this season as well. They’ve conceding 1.67 NPxG per match and 18 big scoring chances in nine games.

The offense also hasn’t been that great, averaging only 1.06 NPpxG per match, but they do have some talent with guys like Callum Wilson and Allan Saint-Maximin, who can penetrate the Chelsea back line that’s way overdue to concede some goals. Plus, Newcastle has only been shut out once in their nine matches this season. 

🤯 Wow. @CallumWilson pic.twitter.com/17l2UUO3YX

— Newcastle United FC (@NUFC) October 23, 2021

Chelsea has only allowed three goals total from 10.02 xG, which is crazy. Even offensively, the Blues have been over-performing as they’ve scored 23 goals off 16.55 xG so far. In their 7-0 win over Norwich City, they actually only created 2.91 xG. On top of all of that, Chelsea is going to be without Romelu Lukaku and Timo Werner for this fixture.

That being said, I can’t get behind this Newcastle defense right now since they’ve allowed their opponents to create 17.73 xG in nine matches.

So, instead I am going to take the Newcastle team total over 0.5 goals at -110 odds and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Newcastle — Team Total Over 0.5 Goals (-110)

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Norwich City vs. Leeds

Norwich City Odds +245
Leeds Odds +110
Draw +260
Over/Under 2.5 (-130 / +110)
Day | Time Sunday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Norwich City didn’t deserve to have seven goals put past them against Chelsea, but this defense is so bad right now.

The Canaries are allowing 1.87 NPxG per match (last in the league) and 16.11 shots per 90 minutes, which is 18th overall in the 20-team table. They’ve conceded 16 big scoring chances in nine matches (18th overall) and 17.89 box entries per match (19th overall) as well.

I know Leeds is currently without Patrick Bamford, but they have plenty of other attacking players going forward that can easily break down Norwich’s back line. Leeds is ninth in NPxG, sixth in shots/90 minutes and seventh in box entries. The Peacocks just haven’t been able to create many big scoring chances, but what better time to do it than against the league’s worst defense.

What’s troubling for Norwich City is their offense is just as bad as their defense, mainly because they haven’t been able to get out of their own final third of the pitch. The Canaries are only creating 0.69 NPxG per match, plus they’re dead last in shots/90minutes and box entries as well.

Defensively, Leeds hasn’t been great when it comes to xG, allowing 1.74 per match, but the club is yielding the sixth-fewest box entries and fifth-fewest crosses completed into their own penalty area, per fbref.com. Leeds is also the No. 1 team in the league in PPDA and fifth in pressure success rate, so I think they should be able to dominate this game.

I have Leeds projected at -109, so there’s value on them at +110 on DraftKings and would play it down to +105 odds.

Pick: Leeds ML (+110) 

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