Premier League Betting Picks, Predictions, Preview: Newcastle, Brighton Among Top Wagers (Sept. 11-13)

The international break is over, which means the Premier League is back this weekend. Matchweek Three was chaotic, from crazy endings to questionable referee decisions.

Tottenham Hotspur sits atop the table, as they're the only team to win their first three matches. However, Liverpool and Chelsea are not far behind them.

This weekend has a couple interesting encounters, including Leicester City hosting Manchester City and Leeds taking on visiting Liverpool.

If you're new to our soccer coverage, I will be providing my projections for every Premier League match, along with every other game from Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1, plus Champions League and Europa League when they kick off next week.

If you'd like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Southampton vs. West Ham

Southampton's matches have been kind of crazy this season, averaging 3.52 expected goals, 24 shots and 48 touches in the penalty area, per Fbref.com.

The Saints' defense dating back to the second half of last season has been horrendous, highlighted by it allowing 1.84 xG per game. They also sold one of their best defenders in Jannik Vestergaard during the transfer window, so I have a hard time seeing how their defense is going to improve.

West Ham’s offense has been electric even dating back to last season, putting together 1.63 xG per outing, which is the fifth-best mark in the Premier League. The Hammers have also created the second-most xG (6.74) through the first three fixtures, behind only Manchester City. 

Defensively, West Ham isn’t that great, allowing 1.32 xG per match, which is in the middle of the pack in the English top flight, Also, since the start of last season, West Ham has allowed the fifth-most touches in their final third, as well as the third-most carries into their final third of the pitch.

Also, 63% of West Ham matches and 50% of Southampton games last season featured at least three goals. All three of West Ham’s matches and two of Southampton’s three matches finished with four or more goals.

Since, I have 3.08 goals projected for this meeting, I think this one has chaos written all over it. Give me the total over three goals at anything plus money.

Pick: Over 3 Goals (+120)

Manchester United vs. Newcastle

Manchester United has been highly overrated this season, as they've only out-created Leeds, Southampton and Wolves by a combined 4.30-4.00 xG margin.

The match against Wolves right before the international break was very telling when United plays teams with dynamic playmakers going forward. Allan Saint-Maximin is one of the best creative attacking players in the league and will be able to give the Red Devils' defense some problems.

While Newcastle didn’t look great through their first three matches, but they haven't been as bad as their results have shown. They have been out-created, 6.38-3.9 on non-penalty expected goals, but their offense has looked much improved from last season.

Newcastle’s offensive numbers weren’t that great a season ago, but they had to deal with a lot of injuries to their attack. Two of their best offensive players — Saint-Maximin and Callum Wilson — were only on the field together in 17 of Newcastle’s 38 matches. When they played together, the Magpies averaged 1.30 xG per game. Without them, they averaged just 1.04 xG per match.

Yes, Cristiano Ronaldo is now at Manchester United, but the host could be without Marcus Rashford, Jadon Sancho and Scott McTominay for this game.

I only have Manchester United's spread projected at -1.24, so I think there's value on Newcastle's spread of +2 at -115 odds via DraftKings and would play it up to -125 odds.

Pick: Newcastle +2 (-115)

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Brentford vs. Brighton

Very trendy teams meet up in London for a showdown to decide which club is actually for real.

Brentford, who is unbeaten through their first three matches, has looked great ever since promotion. They've out created their opponents, 3.73-2.06 on xG and have allowed the second-fewest xG behind only Manchester City.

The Bees play somewhat similar to that of Leeds, with the fact they utilize high-tempo, high-intensity "heavy-metal" football. It's a very vertical style that condenses the middle, allowing wingers and fullbacks to get space on the outside in their 4-3-3 formation. Through the first three matches, Brentford has the third most pressures and the third best pressure success rate.

However, Brighton's style of play works incredibly well against high-press teams. Last season, opposing clubs only had 26.1% successful pressure rate against the Seagulls (per fbref.com), which was the second-best mark behind only Manchester City.

I've mentioned it ad nauseam, but the Seagulls are due for a lot of positive regression, considering they had a +13.91 xGDiff last season, which was fifth overall in the league. Yet, somehow Brighton finished in 16th place.

Also, history is not on Brentford's side going forward because on average since 2005, teams coming up from the Championship have allowed 54% more goals per match in the top flight than they did in the second division. Conversely, offenses see about 35% less goals scored per match in the Premier League than in the Championship. 

I have Brighton projected at +111, so I think there's value on the Draw No Bet line at -105 at DraftKings and would play it up to -135 odds.

Pick: Brighton — Draw No Bet (-105)

Everton vs. Burnley

Everton has been one of the best teams to start the season, earning seven points through their first three matches.

The Toffees' offense has been electric, producing 5.55 xG, while only allowing 2.25 xGA thus far. The reason for their improvement is because manager Rafa Benitez has changed their formation to a 4-4-1-1 lineup, which has allowed Everton to be much more balanced on both sides of the pitch.

The tactical approach has the same structure of a 4-4-2, basically closing off the middle of the pitch and forcing opposing teams to beat them from the perimeter. However, it also allows Everton to put Richarlison in an attacking midfielder role and Dominic Calvert-Lewin alone up top, which are positions they are most comfortable in.

Everton already has +1.74 xGDiff in 189 minutes when playing out of it this season, so Benitez seems to have found the right tactics.

The Toffees should have no problems against a Burnley side that will be battling against relegation this season. Through their first three matches, the Clarets have the fourth-fewest shot-creating actions, while allowing the third most overall, according to fbref.com.

Burnley plays out of a very defensive 4-4-2 formation, but it wasn't that successful last season. The Clarets have allowed 1.46 xG per 90 minutes when playing out of that formation, and their attack always suffers from that style. They only averaged 1.01 xG per 90 minutes in the 4-4-2 setup.

Keep an eye on the injury reports leading up to this match, because Calvert-Lewin is questionable to play at the time of writing this, so if he's out I wouldn't touch anything above -130 for the Toffees.

I have Everton projected at -165, so if Calvert-Lewin plays, I think there's good value on the host to grab all three points at -135 odds.

Pick: Everton ML (-135)