Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Leeds United vs. Crystal Palace Betting Preview (Nov. 30)

Premier League Odds, Pick, Prediction: Leeds United vs. Crystal Palace Betting Preview (Nov. 30) article feature image
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Credit: Mike Hewitt, Getty. Liam Cooper looks on in a match against Brighton & Hove Albion.

Leeds vs. Crystal Palace Odds

Leeds Odds +145
Crystal Palace Odds +200
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -115)
Day | Time Tuesday | 3:15 p.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.

Crystal Palace looks to rebound from a home loss against Aston Villa when it travels to Elland Road to take on Leeds.

Crystal Palace has had a resurgent season, but has sputtered a bit in its past two matches, drawing with Burnley and losing to Aston Villa. Patrick Viera’s side has been really solid defensively, but has struggle to create a lot of chances in front of net. After playing two very defensive sides in their last two matches we’ll see if they’re ready for the stylistic change that comes with facing Leeds.

Leeds has had a rough second season in the English top flight, as it’s currently in the relegation battle, sitting just one point above the drop zone. Marcelo Bielsa’s side has been improving over the past few weeks, going unbeaten in its last five matches and starting to finally get healthy after dealing with a rash of injuries in the early part of the season.

Leeds Ready to Break Through

As an offense, I think Leeds is very close to turning the corner. The Peacocks are 10th NPxG, fifth in shots per 90 minutes and fifth in box entries. The biggest problem is Leeds is really bad versus pressure, as it sits 17th in pressure success rate allowed. However, Crystal Palace is 11th in PPDA and 15th in pressure success rate.

It also looks like Leeds will get starting right back Luke Ayling in his return from injury, which will be huge in defending Wilfried Zaha on the left flank. 

A lot of Crystal Palace’s chances offensively have come off crosses, as they’ve completed the sixth most in the league and Leeds has allowed the second-fewest crosses into their own penalty area, per fbref.com

Crystal Palace a Different Team Away from Home

The home-away splits for Crystal Palace this season are not that great for the club away from Selhurst Park. At home, the Eagles have a +6.47NPxGDiff and have allowed 0.56 NPxG per match. On the road, they’ve conceded a -2.91 NPxGDiff and 1.48 NPxG per match.

Offensively, they’re still below average, sitting 12th in NPxG and 13th in shots per 90 minutes.

The big thing whenever you’re facing Leeds is you have to be good versus pressure. Crystal Palace is 10th in Offensive PPDA, but the five matches it has played against teams inside the top seven in PPDA, the side only created more than one xG once and that was against Brighton & Hove Albion at home when Palace only created 1.13 xG.

Because of this, I do think Leeds’ high press will be effective, especially at Elland Road.

 

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Betting Analysis & Pick

I think Crystal Palace will have a hard time with Leeds’ high press, particularly on the road, where they’ve been pretty poor this season.

Additionally, I have Leeds projected at +115, so I think there’s value on the Leeds Draw No Bet wager via DraftKings at -135 odds, and I’ll make it my top pick.

Pick: Leeds Draw no Bet (-135)

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