Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Thursday Best Bet, Featuring Spurs vs. Brentford

Premier League Odds, Picks, Predictions: Our Thursday Best Bet, Featuring Spurs vs. Brentford article feature image
Credit:

Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Brentford standout Ivan Toney.

We have entered the festive fixture portion of the Premier League calendar, as things are back in full swing starting Tuesday in the English top flight.

There wasn’t much drama this past weekend outside of Tottenham and Burnley getting postponed due to a snow storm (see below) and Chelsea being held to a 1-1 draw with Manchester United.

BREAKING: Burnley vs. Tottenham is postponed due to heavy snow pic.twitter.com/JjV6JrcimY

— B/R Football (@brfootball) November 28, 2021

The midweek fixtures are highlighted by the latest Merseyside derby between Everton and Liverpool, as well as a huge fixture with top-four relevancy featuring Manchester United hosting Arsenal at Old Trafford.

If you’re new to our soccer coverage, I will be providing my projections for every Premier League match, along with every other game from Bundesliga, Serie A, La Liga and Ligue 1, plus Champions League and Europa League when they’re in action.

If you’d like to read more about how I determine my projections, you can check it all out here.

You can use these projections to identify betting value on current lines, plus follow me in The Action Network App to see any bets I make during the week.

Premier League Projections

Best Bets

Leeds vs. Crystal Palace

Leeds Odds +145
Crystal Palace Odds +205
Draw +230
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -115)
Day | Time Tuesday | 3:15 p.m. ET
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The home-away splits for Crystal Palace this season are not that great for the club away from Selhurst Park. At home, the Eagles hhaveas a +6.47NPxGDiff and have allowed 0.56 NPxG per match. On the road, they’ve conceded a -2.91 NPxGDiff and 1.48 NPxG per match.

Offensively, they’re still below average, sitting 12th in NPxG and 13th in shots per 90 minutes.

The big thing whenever you’re facing Leeds is you have to be good versus pressure. Crystal Palace is 10th in Offensive PPDA, but the five matches it has played against teams inside the top seven in PPDA, the side only created more than one xG once and that was against Brighton & Hove Albion at home when they only created 1.13 xG.

So, I do think Leeds’ high press will be effective, especially at Elland Road.

Leeds is a offense I think is very close to turning the corner. The Peacocks are 10th NPxG, fifth in shots per 90 minutes and fifth in box entries. The biggest thing is Leeds is really bad versus pressure, as it sits 17th in pressure success rate allowed. However, Crystal Palace is 11th in PPDA and 15th in pressure success rate.

It also looks like Leeds will get starting right back Luke Ayling in his return from injury, which will be huge in defending Wilfried Zaha on the left flank. 

Also, a lot of Crystal Palace’s chances offensively have come off crosses, as they’ve completed the sixth most in the league. Leeds has allowed the second-fewest crosses into their own penalty area, per fbref.com

I have Leeds projected at +115, so I think there’s value on the Leeds Draw No Bet wager via DraftKings at -135 odds and will make it my top pick.

Pick: Leeds — Draw No Bet (-135)

West Ham vs. Brighton

West Ham Odds -110
Brighton Odds +300
Draw +265
Over/Under 2.5 (+100 / -115)
Day | Time Wednesday | 2:30 p.m. ET
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West Ham produced back-to-back bad performances against Wolves and Manchester City.

Granted, they were both on the road, but the fact the Hammers only had 0.67 xG total in those two matches is concerning. The loss of Angelo Ogbanna clearly is affecting West Ham’s build up play, considering he was the main defender they relied on to start that. Now, they’re facing a really good pressing team in Brighton, who is fourth in PPDA and pressure success rate, per fbref.com.

The Seagulls had a classic Brighton performance this past Saturday against Leeds. They settled for a 0-0 draw, but won the xG by a 1.99-0.80 margin.

*(graphic via infogol.net)

Brighton is still playing at an elite defensive level, only allowing 1.11 NPxG per match. They’re also fifth in shots allowed per 90 minutes, third in big scoring chances allowed, and sixth in crosses completed into their penalty area, which is huge because West Ham is second in the league in crosses completed into the box. 

The Seagulls have also been pretty decent away from home, losing just once this season, which was to Aston Villa, which wasn’t able to create much. They have also have around an even NPxGD in six matches. Also Enock Mwepu is back for Brighton. He and Yves Bissouma playing together is a nightmare for teams trying to beat the press because they’re two of the best pressing midfielders in the league.

I only have West Ham projected at +120, so I think there’s some value on Brighton getting +0.5 on the spread line at -105 odds.

Pick: Brighton +0.5 (-105)

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Tottenham vs. Brentford

Tottenham Odds -170
Brentford Odds +450
Draw +330
Over/Under 2.5 (-110 / -110)
Day | Time Thursday | 2:30 p.m. ET
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Tottenham is way overvalued. Seriously, in what world should they be -175 odds on the three-way moneyline against a Brentford side that is one of the more underrated teams in the Premier League?

Right now, Spurs are 16th in NPxG, 19th in shots per 90 minutes, 14th in box entries and 18th in crosses completed into the penalty area, per fbref.com. Also, they just lost to Slovenian side Mura in the Europa Conference League and manager Antonio Conte was very real in the press conference afterward.

🧨 EXPLOSIVE quotes from Antonio Conte after Spurs' humiliating defeat at Mura.

😂 It's only been three weeks.

✅ Mura were matched at 150 to beat Spurs on @BetfairExchange. #UECL pic.twitter.com/JO2k43GOph

— Betfair (@Betfair) November 25, 2021

 

Brentford got a 1-0 result over Everton on Sunday, but it wasn’t the greatest performance. However, the Bees have a +3.83 NPxGD, which is fourth-best in the league, but they’re currently sitting in the bottom half of the table.

The biggest weakness of the Bees’ defense is allowing crosses into their own penalty area, where they’re last in the league. Yet, like I already mentioned, Tottenham is only 18th in crosses completed into the penalty area.

Offensively, Brentford is seventh in NPxG, 10th in shots per 90 minutes and sixth in big scoring chances, while Tottenham defensively is ninth in NPxG allowed, 15th in shots allowed per 90 minutes and 13th in big scoring chances conceded.

Also, Cristian Romero missing for Spurs on the defensive side is a big blow and they just can’t play a back three of Eric Dier, Ben Davies and Japhet Tanganga and expect to have long-term success. 

I only have Tottenham projected at +111, so I love Brentford getting +1 at -125 odds and will make it my top selection.

Pick: Brentford +1 (-125)

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