Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Burnley vs. Manchester United EPL Betting Preview (Feb. 8)
Robbie Jay Barratt – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Manager Sean Dyche of Burnley.
- Manchester United is a big favorite over Burnley on Tuesday afternoon in Premier League action (3 p.m. ET, USA Network).
- Brad Cunningham is taking the dog at +1, however, as Man U has been over-performing relative to its underlying metrics this season.
- Get his full Manchester United vs. Burnley pick and preview below.
Burnley vs. Man United Odds
|Man United Odds||-175|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-120 / +100)|
|Day | Time||Tuesday | 3 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||USA Network | fuboTV|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here.|
Manchester United looks to hold to their place in the Premier League’s top four on Tuesday they travel to Turf Moor to take on struggling Burnley.
The Clarets were held to a 0-0 home draw against Watford in a relegation battle this past Saturday, which kept them in last place in the table. They have a number of games in hand on their opponents, but time is growing short for them to get out of the drop zone.
Needles to say, a result against Manchester United would be a big step in their fight to stay in the English top flight next season.
The Red Devils are starting to find their form under manager Ralph Rangnick, at least in the Premier League. They’ve won six of his nine matches in charge, including a huge home victory before the international break against West Ham.
However, Manchester United’s road form is pretty bad in league play this season, so this is a tricky spot for them at Turf Moor.
Cornet, Weghorst to Lead Burnley Offense
Burnley and Manchester United played on Dec. 30, with the latter earning the 3-1 victory and winning on expected goals by a 2.0-0.8 margin.
However, the Clarets didn’t play their best possible lineup in that match. Aaron Lennon started up top and Wayne Hennessey was in goal. This time around, though, newly acquired striker Wout Weghorst pairs with Maxwel Cornet on the attack and starter Nick Pope will be back in goal.
🎯 We can't get enough of 𝗧𝗛𝗔𝗧 Cornet goal.
Take a look at it from another angle with Clarets Uncut.
— Burnley FC (@BurnleyOfficial) November 22, 2021
Basically, all of Burnley’s issues have come away from Turf Moor. The Clarets have a +1 xGDiff on home soil, versus a -10.8 xGDiff on the road. In fact, Burnley’s defense is only allowing 1.08 xG per match at home and hasn’t lost by multiple goals there as well.
Typical Sean Dyche teams are going to allow a ton of low quality shots, with this season being no different. The Clarets are dead last in the Premier League in shots allowed per 90 minutes, but Burnley has done a good job preventing high-quality chances, ranking seventh in big scoring chances conceded.
Man United Defense Struggling on Road
Manchester United is currently sitting in the top four with a -1 xGDiff this season. Since Ralph Rangnick has took over, the Red Devils have played eight EPL matches, putting up a +3.2 xGDiff with only one game against the current top seven. They’ve been horrific defensively away from home, allowing 1.81 xG per match, per fbref.com.
Rangnick has even conceded that he can’t play the exact system he wants moving United back to their old 4-2-3-1 formation they played under Ole Gunnar Solskjær, which was not effective considering the Red Devils have a -0.78 xGDiff in more than 1,300 minutes playing out of it, per understat.com.
The biggest thing when you face Burnley is you have to be good at defending set pieces. Manchester United is due for a little negative regression in that department, considering they’ve allowed 8.45 xG off them, but have only conceded four goals.
Betting Analysis & Pick
I only have Manchester United projected at +104, so I love Burnley getting a goal on the spread line at -120 or better and will make it my top selection.
Pick: Burnley +1 (-115)