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Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Norwich City vs. Watford Betting Preview (Sept. 18)

Premier League Odds, Picks, Prediction: Norwich City vs. Watford Betting Preview (Sept. 18) article feature image

James Williamson/Getty Images. Pictured: Josh King

Norwich City vs. Watford Odds

Norwich City Odds +120
Watford Odds +240
Draw +240
Over/Under 2.5 (+110 / -135)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here.

Two of the three newly-promoted sides will clash on Saturday when Norwich City hosts Watford at Carrow Road for a pivotal match between two teams in the bottom half of the Premier League table.

Neither team enters the weekend on any good form to speak of, with the Hornets having lost three on the bounce and the Canaries failing to pick up a win so far this campaign. To make matters worse, both clubs have failed to score in three of their four matches in the early part of this 2021-22 season.

The welcome back to the top flight is normally a difficult jump, but both teams desperately need points from this relegation six-pointer on Saturday.

Norwich City: Offense Needs a Spark

Whether you look at the fact that Norwich has lost every game or that Daniel Farke’s side has only scored one goal in four matches, there hasn’t been much optimism and excitement in their return to the Premier League.

The advanced metrics don’t do them any favors either. The Canaries rank among the bottom three in the league in expected goals (3.7), expected goals allowed (9.0) and expected goals difference (-5.3) per

To their defense, their opening schedule has been one of the toughest in the league with trips to Manchester City and Arsenal and hosting Liverpool and Leicester.

If there’s one positive note, Norwich has been more competitive in the home matches this season, posting an xG difference of -0.43 and winning the xG battle in the loss to Leicester.

The one lone goal of the season also came at home from lead striker Teemu Pukki, and they will need another big performance from him in this very important fixture.

Watford: Searching for Momentum

The campaign started with so much promise for Watford after the 3-2 victory over Aston Villa on the opening day, but Xisco’s squad followed that up with three straight defeats to Brighton, Tottenham and Wolves to sit in 15th in the table.

Like Norwich, the Hornets have also struggled in front of goal, having failed to score in the last three matches and having the worst xG in the league at 2.8.

Watford does have attacking talent in its squad, with the likes of striker Josh King and winger Ismalia Sarr to go along with the new signing of former Spurs midfielder Moussa Sissoko.

None of those players have been consistent scorers over the years, and you have to wonder if they will rue selling veteran striker Troy Deeney late in the summer transfer window.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

This really shapes to be a very cagey affair like most matches between two teams fighting for their lives at the bottom of the table, but it’s hard to find value in the total between two squads that also don’t defend very well.

In this low-scoring fixture, give me the road underdogs of Watford on the Asian handicap of +0.25 at even money via DraftKings as the play here.

As long as Norwich is playing a Premier League opponent, there is no way they should be favored over anyone. I understand that the Canaries have had a much harder schedule, but on paper, I believe Watford is the better team and has more talent to work with. The Hornets also won both matches against Norwich last season in the Championship.

In games without many chances, the goalkeepers can play a huge role in who decides the outcome, and the clear advantage lies with Watford. Daniel Bachmann ranks midtable in post-shot expected goals minus goals allowed per 90 minutes (-0.05), which means he typically saves the shots he’s supposed to save.

Tim Krul on the other hand is in the bottom four amongst Premier League goalkeepers this season at -0.53 in the same category and ranks 19th out of 20 in save percentage at 42.1 percent.

I don’t hate the play of draw no bet with the Hornets at +150 or a sprinkle of the moneyline at +240, but I like the insurance of getting a small win even if it ends in a draw with the Asian handicap line.

Pick: Watford +0.25 (+100)

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