Sunday English Premier League Odds, Picks and Predictions: Bournemouth vs. Southampton Preview (July 19)

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Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Phillip Billing

  • The betting market has been all over Southampton thanks to its recent run of form, moving the latest odds for their match vs. Bournemouth throughout the last few days.
  • BJ Cunningham's model makes Southampton an even bigger favorite, so he's backing them to win.
  • Get his full analysis and preview for Southampton vs. Bournemouth below.

Premier League Odds: Southampton at Bournemouth

Southampton odds +185 [BET NOW]
Bournemouth odds +135 [BET NOW]
Draw +235 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 3 (+120/-148) [BET NOW]
Time Sunday, 9 a.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Sunday morning’s match between Bournemouth and Southampton has major implications in the relegation battle.

Watford’s loss to West Ham on Friday has given Bournemouth hope and the Cherries could pull level with Watford on points going into the final day of the season.

Watford have to play Manchester City and Arsenal to close out their schedule, so if the Cherries can take four points from their final two matches, they will likely stay up for another season.

Southampton have nothing to play for in this match, other than pride, as they have guaranteed themselves another season in the Premier League and can’t qualify for a Europa League spot.

Bournemouth

The Cherries got their first win at Vitality Stadium in over five months beating Leicester last Sunday. Even though they lost 2-1 to Manchester City in the mid-week, they won the expected goals battle 1.87 to 0.59 in the match, so things are starting to turn around for the Cherries.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Home-field advantage hasn’t been a thing for Bournemouth this season, as the Cherries sport a -3.39 expected goal differential and have earned just 21 points from 18 matches at the Vitality Stadium.

Their main issue has been their defense, which lets in 1.65 xG per match overall and 1.52 xG per match at home.

With the Saints bringing a red-hot offense to town, Sunday could be difficult day for the Cherries defensively.

Southampton

The Saints have been in good form since the restart, grabbing 12 of a possible 21 points and posting a +5 goal differential. If you throw out their performance against Manchester City, in which they lost the expected goals battle 0.70 to 3.53, the Saints have been dominant, winning on average by 0.57 xG per match (1.75 xGF, 1.18 xGA).

Southampton’s offense is starting to heat up too, as they are averaging 2.14 xGF in their last three matches.

Southampton have been one of the best road sides in the Premier League this season, ranking sixth in both expected goals for per match (1.60) and  expected goals against per match (1.38) away from home.

They’ve been especially hot since the restart, going unbeaten in their last four away matches, with a +3.06 expected goal differential.

Even with nothing to play for, I think Southampton will be motivated to keep up their good run of form.

Analysis

Bournemouth opened as -110 favorite, but have quickly risen up to +135, likely due to Southampton’s hot run of form. Even though the price has shortened I still think there’s value on Southampton on Sunday.

  • Bournemouth projected odds: +195 (33.92% win probability)
  • Southampton projected odds: +139 (41.92%)
  • Draw projected odds: +314 (24.16%)
  • Bournemouth projected xG: 1.42
  • Southampton projected xG: 1.59
Pick: Draw No Bet: Southampton (+112)

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