Brighton vs. Manchester City Odds, Betting Picks and Predictions (Saturday, July 11)

Brighton vs. Manchester City Odds

Odds as of Friday evening and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Manchester City returns to the site where they won their 2019 Premier League title to take on Brighton at the American Express Stadium.

It's not quite official, but Brighton has all but secured another season in the Premier League as they are eight points clear of the relegation zone. However, a loss in this match and wins by either Aston Villa or Bournemouth could make things a little nerve racking on the south coast heading into the final three matches of the season.

Manchester City are all but certain to finish in second place, but they are facing a two-year ban from Champions League for allegedly violating FIFA’s Financial Fair Play rules. City are still alive in this year’s Champions League, which will continue in August, but there’s nothing left for them to strive for in the Premier League in 2019-20.

Brighton

The Seagulls have played the toughest schedule since the restart. They've stepped up to the task grabbing seven of a possible 15 points, against the likes of Arsenal, Manchester United, Leicester, and Liverpool. The underlying metrics show that they've held their own in those matches winning the expected goals battle 6.26 to 6.00.

Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.

Brighton is one of the more underrated teams in the Premier League. Based on expected points, the Seagulls should be 9.13 points higher in the table than where they currently are (45.13 xPoints vs. 36 actual).

Brighton also ranks inside the top 10 in the Premier League in expected goals for and against. Manchester City will certainly be difficult to slow down, but I think the Seagulls are up to the task based on their recent form.

Manchester City

The Citizens blitzed Newcastle on Wednesday, winning 5-0 at the Etihad. Man City controlled the entire match and didn't even allow the Magpies to sniff the opposing goal, limiting them to 0.15 xG.

City are creating 2.60 expected goals per match, which is their best mark in five years. They've caught fire over their last three matches, scoring 3.22 xG per match, while only allowing 0.65 xG per match. Matches involving Manchester City usually feature plenty of scoring chances. Overall, City average 3.60 total xG per match, but that number has ticked up to 3.85 in their last five matches.

Man City have surprisingly struggled on the road lately. The Cityzens have lost their last four away matches and have only scored just one goal in the process.

Be sure to check in on Manchester City’s lineup before placing a bet on this game as there is a chance that Guardiola rests some of his players since there’s nothing on the line.

Analysis

Based on my model, I think the current line on DraftKings doesn't provide any value for either side:

• Brighton projected odds: +570 (14.92% win probability)
• Manchester City projected odds: -215 (68.23%)
• Draw projected odds: +493 (16.85%)
• Brighton projected xG: 1.07
• Manchester City projected xG: 2.54

Since I have 3.61 goals projected for this match, I am going to back Over 3.5 goals at plus money.