Nottingham Forest (5-11-3) and Aston Villa (12-4-3) will face off today at 7:30 a.m. EST at Villa Park in Birmingham, England. The home team is favored at a -125 price, with the over/under set at 2.5 (-125o/+100u) goals.
This Premier League matchup presents a classic clash between a team whose results may exceed their performance data and an opponent whose record does not reflect their underlying quality.
Let's get into my Nottingham vs. Aston Villa prediction.
Nottingham vs. Aston Villa Prediction
Pick: Nottingham Forest +0.75 Asian Handicap (-122)
My Nottingham vs. Aston Villa best bet is backing the road team to either win the match or not lose it by more than one goal.
Nottingham vs. Aston Villa Odds
| Nottingham Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
2.5 -125o / 100u | +333 | |
| Aston Villa Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
2.5 -125o / 100u | -125 | |
Nottingham vs. Aston Villa Picks, Parlay
Pick: Nottingham Forest +0.75 Asian Handicap (-122)
This pick centers on a tale of two statistical stories. Aston Villa enters this contest after a 4-1 defeat to Arsenal, a result that snapped an impressive eight-game winning streak in the league. However, a deeper look at their performance during that successful run suggests a potential for regression.
During their eight consecutive victories, Unai Emery’s squad scored 18 goals from an expected goals (xG) figure of just 12.2. On the defensive side, they allowed only nine goals despite facing an expected goals against (xGA) of 12.43. This pattern of outperforming underlying metrics at both ends of the field is often difficult to sustain over a full season.
The loss to Arsenal, while a heavy defeat, continued this trend; Villa actually generated a higher xG total than the Gunners, though much of that came from a late, desperate push. This could signal the start of a market correction for a team that has performed above statistical expectations.
Conversely, Nottingham Forest appears to be a team due for better results. They currently sit just four points clear of the relegation zone, but their analytical profile is much stronger.
Based on expected points (xPTS), a metric that evaluates performance, Forest should have around 22.8 points, well above their current total of 18. This disparity indicates that their play has been better than their position in the standings suggests.
This makes them an intriguing underdog candidate against a Villa team that may be overvalued by the market.
Nottingham vs. Aston Villa Projections
Projected Chance of Winning
| Nottingham | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 27.3% | 24.4% | 48.3% |
Projected Total Goals
| Nottingham | Total Goals | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 1.02 | 2.51 | 1.49 |
Nottingham vs. Aston Villa Betting Analysis
Aston Villa’s formidable home record is a key factor in the betting market for this matchup. They have won their last ten games at Villa Park across all competitions, a streak that establishes them as clear favorites. The odds reflect this, giving Villa an implied probability of 57% to win the match, compared to just 21% for Nottingham Forest.
This dominant home form explains why Villa is a significant favorite, but our analysis points toward value on the other side. The Asian Handicap market offers an opportunity to support Forest while acknowledging Villa’s strength. With a +0.75 handicap, a bet on Forest wins if they win or draw. If they lose by a single goal, the bet is a half-loss. Only a Villa victory by two or more goals results in a full loss for this wager.
In the goalscorer markets, Ollie Watkins is the primary threat for the home side. He has found his form recently, with three goals in his last two Premier League appearances. For the visitors, Taiwo Awoniyi and Igor Jesus are the most likely to score, though their starting roles are not guaranteed.
Check out the best soccer odds before making your Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa picks.
