Premier League Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Crystal Palace vs. Burnley Preview (Monday, June 29)

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Iam Burn/MI News/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Ben Mee

Jun 29, 2020, 01:15 PM EDT
  • Crystal Palace is a favorite over Burnley in Monday Premier League action, with the total set at 2.
  • Palace has struggled against the best teams in the EPL, but have stayed out of the relegation zone by beating up on the weaker sides in the league.
  • Here's how we're betting Crystal Palace vs. Burnley on Monday.

Burnley at Crystal Palace Odds

Burnley odds +260 [BET NOW]
Crystal Palace odds +130 [BET NOW]
Draw odds +200 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 2 (-106/-117)
[BET NOW]
Time Monday at 3 p.m. ET
TV NBCSN

Odds as of Sunday morning and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


The Premier League’s Project Restart rolls on Monday with a match between two mid-table teams with nothing to play for. Both Crystal Palace and Burnley are, clear out of the relegation fight, but too far behind to make a run for a Europa League spot.

Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace looked awful in their last match against Liverpool. The Eagles were thrashed, 4-0, and were only able to generate 0.09 expected goals in the match. That number is abysmal, but it isn’t that surprising as Palace has struggled to create scoring chances all season. The Eagles produce a league-worst 0.92 xG per match this season.


Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.


Things don’t get much better home for Palace, as they are only creating 0.98 xG per game at Selhurt Park.

One reason Crystal Palace have stayed out of relegation is because they have beat up on the weaker teams in the division at home. The same can’t be said when Palace take on the league’s stronger sides:

Crystal Palace at Home Points Goal Differential
Against top-13 teams 3 -8
Against Bottom-7 teams 19 7

Burnley

Burnley is in a little bit of disarray right now.

Not only have they allowed a couple of key contracts to expire, they also could be without their two main strikers, Jay Rodriguez and Chris Wood. Despite all the turmoil, the Clarets were able to defeat Watford, 1-0, as home underdogs on Thursday.

It’ll be interesting to see if all the roster turnover causes Sean Dyche to venture away from Burnley’s standard 4-4-2 formation. Burnley have a +2.73 xG differential when they’re lined up in the 4-4-2, so it has been effective for the Clarets again this season.

Off the field it’s a bit chaotic, but Burnley’s on-field results have been encouraging going back to before the break. The Clarets have taken 18 of a possible 27 points in their last nine matches including big wins over Leicester City and Manchester United.

Thursday’s performance showed us that the Clarets are still a tough team to beat despite the off-field issues.

Analysis

This will likely be a very low-scoring match between two of the more defense-minded teams in Premier League.

  • Crystal Palace projected odds: +269
  • Burnley projected odds: +119
  • Draw projected odds: +266
  • Crystal Palace projected xG: 1.03
  • Burnley projected xG: 1.35

My model suggests that Burnley is quite underrated in this match and I am going to back them to work out at least a draw on Monday.

Picks: Burnley +0.5 (-155)

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