Everton vs. Tottenham Hotspur Odds, Predictions: Betting Picks for Monday’s Premier League Match
Neil Hall/Pool via Getty Images. Pictured: Harry Kane, Ben Davies
- Monday's Premier League soccer action includes Everton vs. Tottenham Hotspur at 3 p.m. ET (NBCSN).
- According to the latest Premier League odds, Tottenham are +107 favorites over Everton in Monday's match.
- Read our full Everton vs. Tottenham Hotspur betting preview, including predictions and two best bet picks.
Everton at Tottenham Hotspur Odds
|Everton Odds||+265 (Bet now)|
|Spurs Odds||+107 (Bet now)|
|Draw||+250 (Bet now)|
|Over/Under||2.5 (-110/-110) (Bet now)|
|Time||Monday, 3 pm. ET|
Both Everton and Spurs have had disappointing seasons thus far, with both expecting to be in competition for European places and Tottenham coming off of a Champions League final appearance and fourth straight top-four finish. But while Everton had a terrible start and have since turned their form in the right direction, the issues that have plagued Tottenham remain similar as Everton visits Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Monday.
A look at the table, with Spurs 10th and Everton 11th, suggests that both teams are very even. But Spurs have overperformed their expected goals metrics nearly all season, while Everton have underperformed. The Toffees are seventh in the expected points table (50.33), while Spurs are 13th (41.18).
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Tottenham’s biggest issue hasn’t been its attack when healthy. With Harry Kane, Heung-min Son and Dele Alli on the team, Spurs haven’t struggled as much going forward as they have in defense. Its entire back four was passed through with ease in Spurs’ 3-1 defeat at Sheffield United on Thursday. As a unit, Spurs have conceded 44 goals on 48.83 xGA.
For Everton, its offense has drastically underperformed expectations, scoring 40 goals despite generating 49 xG. The Toffees have gotten very little in attack from anyone besides their two forwards, Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
The pair have combined for 24 goals, with no other Everton player netting more than three. Still, Everton should have more goals and should be higher up in the table. Since January 1, when both new managers Carlo Ancelotti and Jose Mourinho had a chance to implement their ideas to their new clubs, Everton are eighth in the table, and seventh in the expected table.
Spurs, meanwhile, are 13th in the table and 18th in expected goals. While Tottenham was shorthanded in attack for large stretches before the layoff, Spurs haven’t been able to defend despite a relatively healthy backline. Spurs have allowed 23.98 xGA, the third-most in the Premier League since January 1.
A look at the home-away splits makes it appear that Tottenham are better at home, but definitely not defensively. Since 2020 began, no Premier League team has allowed more xG on home turf than Spurs.
Similar to the numbers that suggest Spurs are a paper tiger at home this season, Everton’s road figures have remarkably underperformed the underlying metrics. Only Norwich have taken fewer points than expected than Everton away from home in the Premier League.
Now that Spurs’ chances of making the Champions League next season are all but gone, I wonder about Tottenham’s mentality entering this match with Everton, the first of three in six days for Spurs.
With two teams heading in the opposite direction at the moment, I’ll back Everton to get at least a point on the road and the total to go over 2.5 goals because I’m expecting a back-and-forth affair with two teams that struggle to defend.
The bets: Everton +0.5 (-120), Over 2.5 goals (-110) [Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN and WV only.]