Premier League Odds & Picks: Our Top Early Bets, Including West Ham & Aston Villa (Saturday, Aug. 28)

Premier League Odds & Picks: Our Top Early Bets, Including West Ham & Aston Villa (Saturday, Aug. 28) article feature image
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Visionhaus/Getty Images. Pictured: Aston Villa standout Danny Ings, left, and his teammates celebrate a goal.

Things should become pretty electric on the latest Premier League schedule, with several matches taking place Saturday prior to the international break.

Soccer analysts Matthew Trebby, Jeremy Pond and Ian Quillen have dished out their best bets on the morning slate, with the contests set for 10 a.m. ET starts. Their favorite plays begin with Aston Villa hosting newly promoted side Brentford, followed by wagering angles from games featuring West Ham United vs. Crystal Palace and Newcastle United vs. Southampton.

Check out their detailed insight and in-depth handicapping for those games, plus their best bets, on another full slate in the English top flight.

Aston Villa vs. Brentford Odds

Aston Villa Odds -105
Brentford Odds +275
Draw +270
Over/Under 2.5 (-125 / -105)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds updated Friday afternoon via BetMGM.

Matthew Trebby: I was shocked this total was a Pick’em.

Through four combined games, these teams have registered 3.40 NPxG and 2.60 of that has come from Brentford. Roughly, 0.6 of that came from a throw-in they scored against Arsenal that 95% of top-flight clubs around Europe would’ve defended better.

While both sides have a quality striker and potential to score goals, the numbers have not been there yet. Maybe this is the day that Ivan Toney breaks out and scores for Brentford, but the matchup isn’t ideal. Maybe Emiliano Buendia finally starts creating chances for Aston Villa, even partially filling the void left by new Manchester City man Jack Grealish.

However, none of those things have happened yet. The Villans are solid defensively, and the Bees will be focused on stability in the back in every road match.

Give me under 2.5 goals at anything better than -125 odds.

Trebby’s Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-105 | play to -125)

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West Ham vs. Crystal Palace Odds

West Ham Odds -185
Crystal Palace Odds +525
Draw +320
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / -105)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings.

Jeremy Pond: From current form and statistical standpoints, this is an utter mismatch. It’s as simple as that. However, as we all know, matches aren’t played on paper and this meeting could be tricky for West Ham.

Despite being heavy -185 moneyline favorites, the Hammers have actually had issues with the Eagles of late. They’ve only won one of their last five meetings with the visitors, plus they’re winless against them at home dating back to the end of the 2018 schedule.

Now, don’t get me wrong. This could be another blowout like the one that occurred a few days ago at London Stadium. I watched that match against Leicester City from start to finish and the hosts were simply on another level.

That all said, I simply can’t go against the Hammers. The hosts are clicking on all cylinders and I don’t see the Eagles suddenly finding their offense in this spot. For that reason, I’m turning to the Asian Handicap and backing West Ham at -0.75 on the spread line at -140 odds via DraftKings as my top selection.

Pond’s Pick: West Ham -0.75 (-140)

Newcastle vs. Southampton Odds

Newcastle Odds +150
Southampton Odds +185
Draw +245
Over/Under 2.5 (-120 / -105)
Day | Time Saturday | 10 a.m. ET
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Odds updated Friday afternoon via DraftKings.

Ian Quillen: Southampton’s counter-pressing style is exactly the kind of approach that can expose motivated but less-than-dominant attacking sides

It can be harder against opponents like Newcastle, who have been relentlessly pragmatic since Steve Bruce took charge in 2019. It’s still early, but the Magpies haven’t scored in 270 minutes, including a midweek League Cup tie against Burnley they lost on penalties.

And teams have combined for only 3.8 expected goals in Newcastle’s two matches if you remove penalties conceded. On the other side, Southampton created less than 1.0 xG in their first two fixtures.

By now you know where I’m going  and that’s playing the total under 2.5 goals at -105 odds, with a 51.2% implied probability. That’s a price higher than it usually might be for two teams who would count a mid-table finish as success.

It also reflects good value for teams with similar squads from a year ago who generated a combined 3.6 xG in their two league games in the last campaign.

Quillen’s Pick: Total Under 2.5 Goals (-105)

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