Premier League Betting, Week 22: Bettors Backing Manchester United Again
Getty Images. Pictured: Tottenham’s Christian Eriksen celebrating against Manchester United
- After a brief hiatus due to League Cup and FA Cup action, the Premier League returns with 10 matches on Saturday, Sunday and Monday, highlighted by Tottenham-Manchester United (Sunday, 11 a.m. ET on NBC Sports).
- I've analyzed the betting market for every match and picked out three value plays to make.
Fans and bettors have been itching for the Premier League to return, and this weekend brings us a slew of intriguing matchups, including Tottenham-Manchester United.
Liverpool hold a 4-point lead over Manchester City at the top of the league while Huddersfield are massive favorites to be relegated.
2018-19 Season Trends
- Road teams remain hot and have now earned 7.58 units on the year.
- Draws are still struggling mightily, but we’ve seen a slew of big upsets lately, including Crystal Palace (+1840 vs. Man City) and Leicester City (+980 at Chelsea).
For Week 22, I’ve analyzed the betting market for every match and provided three value plays (26-49-1 season record, -11.42 units).
(Odds are always on the move until kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest lines and betting percentages here)
Saturday (7 Matches)
West Ham vs. Arsenal (7:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)
In the opening match of the weekend, Arsenal are small road favorites and receiving the overwhelming public support to beat West Ham.
This has been a common theme for the Gunners this season, but they’ve only won four road matches, the same number as Wolves, West Ham and Crystal Palace. I would tread lightly thinking that this is an automatic win for Arsenal.
Although there hasn’t been much movement on the moneyline, the over (3) has been hit hard, increasing the juice from -110 to -130. It’s possible that the total could reach 3.5 before kickoff, so be sure to follow all the latest market updates in The Action Network app.
Crystal Palace vs. Watford (10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)
This is a very intriguing match between mid-table clubs, and Crystal Palace (+130) have the slight edge to take all three points at home. Public betting patterns have been spread out on all three moneylines, and sportsbooks haven’t felt the need to adjust much.
This is another over that has been hit hard, moving the juice on 2.5 from +125 to +110. The value may be gone, but you can still find a good price on either team winning by an exact score of 2-1.
Brighton vs. Liverpool (10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)
Liverpool will look to avoid consecutive Premier League defeats for the first time since 2015, but it will be a difficult task at Brighton. The Seagulls have scored in 13 straight home league games and have lost just six of 29 EPL matches at home.
At -300 odds, it should be no surprise to see 80% of bets on Liverpool. Goal-line betting has been a little less lopsided with 64% of bets on Liverpool (-1.5), and sharp bettors have been hitting the under (3).
Burnley vs. Fulham (10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)
Fulham haven’t earned a road win all season long, only picking up two points in 11 matches. That should change this weekend as +230 underdogs at Burnley.
Hardly anyone is betting on Fulham as they’ve attracted less than 10% of tickets. On the other side, Burnley have received nearly 80% of bets and their odds have moved accordingly from +185 to +140. I think this has actually created value on the road team and would pounce on those +230 odds as soon as possible.
Cardiff City vs. Huddersfield (10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)
This match is getting the least attention from public bettors, and has received the fewest number of tickets of any EPL game this weekend. With a low over/under of 2 goals, this is setting up perfectly for a draw.
Leicester City vs. Southampton (10 a.m. ET on NBC Sports Gold)
Of all the matches on the board this weekend, this one stuck out to me due to the curious odds. I was expecting to see Leicester City as -120/-130 favorites, but they’re only -110 and haven’t increased since opening.
Unsurprisingly, nearly 70% of public bettors are taking Leicester City to get the home win, but I don’t see it happening that way. Southampton are starting to get desperate as they’ve fallen into the relegation zone, and need to pick up points quickly. A draw/win from Southampton will be one of the shockers of the weekend.
Chelsea vs. Newcastle (12:30 p.m. ET on NBC)
Chelsea (-480) are the second-biggest favorites of the weekend, but public bettors are still taking a shot on Newcastle (+1600) as hefty underdogs. You’re better off placing a wager elsewhere, or including Chelsea in a parlay instead.
Sunday (2 Matches)
Everton vs. Bournemouth (9:15 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)
Both clubs have earned the same number of points (27) this season, but Everton are clear -130 favorites on Sunday morning.
The majority of public bets is on Bournemouth (+390) but that could change over the next couple of days. This match could go any of three ways, so I’ll be laying off completely.
There has been a profitable historical trend on teams coming off two consecutive league shutouts, a situation that Everton fit for Sunday.
Tottenham vs. Manchester United (11:30 a.m. ET on NBC Sports)
This is the most anticipated match of the weekend, and it’s also attracted the most wagers of any EPL game.
Spurs are slight +107 home favorites, but this line would have been about -130 if Jose Mourinho was still in charge of Manchester United. Clearly, the Red Devils have been a different club with Ole Gunnar Solskjaer running things.
Public bettors have taken notice, too, as more than 60% of early bets have come in on Man United (+275). At the moment, I’d fade the trendy underdog once again and roll with Tottenham at home, but these percentages could change over the next 48 hours.
Monday (1 Match)
Manchester City vs. Wolves (3 p.m. ET on NBC Sports)
In the biggest EPL match of the season so far, Man City earned a massive win over Liverpool, 2-1, to move within four points of first place. That victory will mean absolutely nothing if Man City don’t pick up points in subsequent games, though, and they’re -500 to win on Monday.
Wolves have been tricky to figure out this year. They’re a talented squad who have been strong defensively, but have only scored 23 goals in 21 games. Most were expecting to see more firepower from Wolverhampton, but that just hasn’t been the case. Against Manchester City, they’ll likely need to score multiple goals to secure a victory.
The high total of 3.5 indicates that as well, but I don’t see Wolves pulling off an upset. This should be a commanding 4-1 type win for Manchester City to stay in the title race.
- Huddersfield/Cardiff City Draw (+220)
- Fulham (+230) at Burnley
- Southampton +0.5 (-110) at Leicester City