Bundesliga Odds, Picks & Predictions: How to Bet Bayern Munich vs. Hoffenheim (Saturday, Jan. 30)
Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images. Pictured: Robert Lewandowski.
- Bayern Munich look to avoid a slip in form against Hoffenheim on Saturday in the Bundesliga.
- The Bavarians are overwhelming favorites in this match, but Hoffenheim have given them issues in past years.
- BJ Cunningham breaks down how to bet this game, with an eye on the total.
Bayern Munich vs. Hoffenheim Odds
|Bayern Munich Odds||-480|
|Day | Time||Saturday | 9:30 a.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN+|
Bayern Munich looks to avenge one of their two losses this season in the Bundesliga when they host mid-table side Hoffenheim on Saturday.
Bayern’s incredible unbeaten streak in the Bundesliga that dated back to last season, was halted in September when Hoffenheim dismantled them, 4-1. Since then, the defending German and European champions have been on a path of destruction and now hold a seven-point lead atop the Bundesliga.
Bayern have won six of their last seven matches, so Hoffenheim could be running right into a buzz saw on Saturday.
Hoffenheim has been on a bit of a roller coaster this season, currently in 11th place. However, they seem to have righted the ship, winning their last two matches by a combined score of 6-0 against Hertha Berlin and Koln.
The defending champions will certainly be out for blood, as Hoffenheim upset Bayern Munich 2-1 at the Allianz Arena last season, but the defending champions followed it up with 6-0 rout.
Can Hoffenheim pull off another historic upset on Saturday?
Bayern Munich has been their usual dominant selves this campaign, but they haven’t been as dominant as they were during the restart of last season. The defending champions are scoring 2.22 expected goals per match, which is actually quite a big drop from their average last season of 2.73 xG per match.
Additionally, Bayern is due for some negative regression on offense. They’ve scored 53 goals on the season while only creating 40.09 xG.
A lot of their success offensively has come from beating up on the bottom of the table. In six matches against the bottom-five teams in the Bundesliga, Bayern Munich is averaging 3.31 xG per match, and they’re averaging only 1.75 xG per match against the rest of the league.
Hoffenheim stymied Bayern’s offense in the last meeting, holding them to only 1.54 xG, so will Die Kraichgauer be able to hold the Bavarians in check again?
Hoffenheim have been somewhat of a disappointment this season after finishing in sixth place last campaign. They’ve been in the midst of an identity crisis, having not found a consistent formation this season.
However, they may have just found the perfect recipe, as playing out of a 3-5-2 the last two matches has yielded back to back 3-0 victories.
The 3-5-2 can be a dream come true for most managers allowing seven players to go forward in attack and overwhelm the opposing defense. It also allows a manager to play three central midfielders, which is certainly beneficial against a team like Bayern Munich. Hoffenheim has a +0.14 xGD when playing out of that formation this season and is allowing only 1.40 xG per 90 minutes.
So how do you beat Bayern Munich? You have clog the middle of the pitch and stay calm against their high press. Bayern loves to play an extremely high defensive line and press forward as one unit, which when it works they completely overwhelm teams, but when they get caught too far up the pitch, they can be exploited.
This tactical breakdown shows exactly how Hoffenheim defeated Bayern the last time and what they must do again if they want to pull off another historic upset:
Betting Analysis & Picks
I think Hoffenheim is likely going to sit back defensively and attempt to not allow Bayern to play through the middle. Therefore, I think we are going to see a lower-scoring game than expected between these two sides.
I only have 3.57 goals projected for this match, so I think there is some value on Under 4 goals at -106 odds (DraftKings).
Pick: Under 4 goals (-106)